Teeming, unforecast quantities of rain drenched Ireland’s premier Flat racecourse in the buildup to the Irish 2,000 Guineas, as if the elements were determined to provide a new test for Churchill, the latest “unbeatable” to emerge from the Ballydoyle stable. The imposing colt returned spattered with muck but with an extra sheen on his reputation, having powered past Thunder Snow for a comfortable victory at odds of 4-9.
“It wouldn’t be his ground,” said Ryan Moore on dismounting, noting that the track had been similarly muddy on the only occasion Churchill was beaten, when making his debut a year ago. “He went through it because he’s such a strong horse but that ground wouldn’t suit a horse with his class.”
It would have been easy to treat Thunder Snow’s claims lightly, following his baffling display in the Kentucky Derby three weeks ago, when he did a fair impression of a bucking bronco as soon as the stalls opened and was pulled up after a furlong. Connections still have no explanation for what happened there but evidently he remains a quality animal and, having won a Group One on soft last year, is a real threat if you are a bit worried about your own horse’s ability to cope with a sodden surface.
Thunder Snow duly cruised into contention at the top of the straight, easily avoiding the risk of being boxed in by Churchill’s two stablemates. But when Moore asked his mount to challenge, Churchill responded so quickly that he hit the front more than a furlong out – rather earlier than his jockey had planned.
Godolphin, owners of the runner-up, will have another crack at Churchill next month when Barney Roy takes him on at Royal Ascot in the St James’s Palace Stakes. Barney Roy has a length to make on Churchill from their Newmarket form this month, but Churchill was so good here that betting on an upset next time is, for now, an unattractive proposition. Bookmakers wiped off the last of the 11-8 about Churchill for Ascot and the 5-4 followed soon after, leaving him anat even-money shot with three weeks to go.
Aidan O’Brien has now trained an extraordinary 69 winners of European Classic races in his 20 years with a licence but seems no more inclined to accept the credit for same than when he started out. All mentions of the tally prompted familiar comments from O’Brien about what a big team Ballydoyle is and how privileged he is to be a small part of it.
He was determined, however, to make sure Churchill got his due praise and suggested the horse has become such a natural athlete that he instinctively knows how to prepare himself for exertion. “He gets a little big jig-joggy rather than upset [before a race]. His whole demeanour doesn’t change other than, I suppose, like an athlete warming themselves up. That’s what he does, he jig-jogs and then straight away back to complete calm. Then he jig-jogs again and back to complete calm but never gets upset in his mind, I’d say. Very unusual that way.”
Christophe Soumillon, Thunder Snow’s jockey, was briefer and more emphatic. “We were beaten by the best three-year-old in Europe,” the Belgian said.
O’Brien proved less fortunate with Acapulco, a late non-runner on this card because of a temperature. But he seemed confident the filly will recover in time to take her chance in one of the sprints at Royal Ascot.
Meanwhile, the temporary facilities here seemed under some pressure, despite a crowd of 3,000, half the formal capacity while the main stand is pulled down and rebuilt.
Better weather will be necessary if the expected 6,000 for Sunday’s 1,000 Guineas card are not to have a frustrating experience.
The Curragh has made an obvious effort to keep their customers happy and one can understand why management would rather not let the Classic races be run elsewhere but the outcome does not seem the ideal one from the broader perspective of Irish racing. A much better experience would have been offered if this weekend’s racing had taken place at Leopardstown.
Chris Cook’s tips for Sunday
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1.55 Kayla 2.25 Denny Kerrell 2.55 The Wicket Chicken 3.30 Keltus 4.05 Istimraar 4.35 Jack Snipe 5.05 Mount Vesuvius
UTTOXETER
2.05 Turn Turk 2.35 Beat That 3.05 Kalaskadesmilley (nb) 3.40 Nicely Indeed 4.15 Days Of Heaven (nap) 4.45 Royals And Rebels 5.15 Cosmic Statesman
KELSO
2.15 Champagne City 2.45 Perseid 3.15 Sudski Star 3.50 Ash Park 4.25 Charlie Wingnut 4.55 Monsieur Jourdain 5.25 Our Sioux Sue
Greg Wood’s Derby tipping preview
When Frankie Dettori suggested at Goodwood on Friday that you could make a case for 10 of the runners in Saturday’s Investec Derby at Epsom, it was tempting to ask how he had managed to rule so many out. At this stage, there are at least a dozen colts in the betting that could improve by just a few pounds and either win or finish 12th depending on luck in running and how many of their opponents do the same.
For every point in favour of one of the runners there is at least one argument against and that is before the starting positions have been drawn for what promises to be close to a maximum field. This is a puzzle that every punter will approach from a slightly different direction, weighing up the form and odds in their own way, before quite possibly relying on little more than gut instinct in the end.
The basic rules, though, remain the same. It is not just the form that matters, it is the chance of success that the form implies versus the odds on offer. If the price is not right, move on, and neither Dettori’s mount, Cracksman, nor Cliffs Of Moher, the Dee Stakes winner, makes much appeal at around 9-2.
Either could easily be led back to the winners’ enclosure. Both can be ignored at the price. Cracksman was value for a little more than his narrow winning margin in the Classic Trial at Epsom in April, but that was the second race of his career and he still has plenty to prove. There are others in the race with similar profiles and Derbys have been won on a third or even second start in the past, but with a horse like Dubai Thunder, a one-raced maiden winner, that lack of experience is built into the price.
The apparent franking of Cracksman’s form when Permian, the runner-up at Epsom, took the Dante Stakes is also questionable, as the race was run on desperate ground. Perhaps Permian has improved into a genuine Classic contender since he was beaten off a mark of 100 in a handicap at Bath in April. Then again, perhaps he has not, in which case Cracksman is a very dubious favourite.
Cliffs Of Moher also showed clear signs of inexperience for much of his run in the Dee Stakes, but there was a real sense of his mind and body beginning to operate in tandem in the last 100 yards. He seems to be the best of Aidan O’Brien’s large team, but even allowing for significant improvement to come, a one-and-a-half length defeat of Bay Of Poets is not the form of a Derby favourite. Add in a lingering doubt over his effectiveness at a mile-and-a-half – his dam side has plenty of speed – and he can be passed over at the price.
Among the horses at 20-1 or bigger, Waldgeist will find some each-way backers because he is trained by André Fabre and beat three probable runners – Best Solution, Capri and Douglas Macarthur – in a Group One at Saint-Cloud in November. Defeat in the Prix Greffulhe first time up was less encouraging, however.
In the end, the one colt for whom the positives seem to most outweigh the negatives at a fair price is the Craven Stakes winner, Eminent. His form in Craven was the strongest in any colts’ Classic trial this season. He was not suited by the run of the race in the 2,000 Guineas but still finished just over three lengths behind Churchill, and Martyn Meade’s colt also seems sure to appreciate the step up in trip. At around 7-1 his price is very fair and while Cliffs Of Moher may be his strongest opponent, Dubai Thunder could be the one that sneaks into a place at much longer odds.
1 Eminent; 2 Cliffs Of Moher; 3 Dubai Thunder
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