The United States could face mounting reliability risks as electricity demand from data centers climbs far faster than grid capacity, according to two new BloombergNEF (BNEF) reports released on Monday.
BNEF now expects U.S. data-center power demand to reach 106 gigawatts (GW) by 2035, a 36% jump from its previous forecast just seven months earlier, while grid investment, despite hitting record levels, remains too slow to ease transmission bottlenecks.
Data-Center Load Forecast Surges On AI Expansion
BNEF attributes the sharp upward revision to both the sheer volume and escalating size of new projects.
Of nearly 150 developments added to the research firm’s tracker this year, almost one-quarter exceed 500 megawatts, more than double last year’s share. The new wave is fueled by AI workloads that require massive compute density and consistent power availability, BNEF research found.
See also: Amazon Runs 900+ Data Centers To Fuel AI Demand: Report
Major Regional Grids Warn Of Tightening Supply
Two of the country’s largest power markets—PJM and ERCOT—are showing signs of strain.
PJM operates the grid across 13 U.S. states from New Jersey to Illinois, supplying nearly 65 million people. BNEF forecasts that data-center capacity in PJM could reach 31 GW by 2030, nearly matching the 28.7 GW of new power generation the Energy Information Administration expects in the same period.
ERCOT, which manages the grid covering about 90% of Texas, faces a similar challenge. Reserve margins there could fall into “risky territory” after 2028 as long-term power supply lags behind accelerating demand from AI and industrial growth, the report said.
Meanwhile, Northern Virginia’s long-dominant data-center market is nearing saturation, pushing new development into central and southern Virginia, according to BNEF.
Georgia is expanding beyond metro Atlanta as land and power availability tighten. Texas stands out as developers convert former crypto-mining sites into AI data centers near major population centers and fiber routes.
Record Grid Spending Still Failing To Solve Bottlenecks
BNEF’s Grid Investment Outlook 2025 found that global grid capital spending will exceed $470 billion this year, with the U.S. contributing $115 billion, the most of any country.
Yet even with double-digit growth, supply-chain constraints, permitting delays, and labor shortages continue to slow transmission expansion. BNEF warned that demand-side connection queues, driven heavily by data centers, are rising rapidly and remain a major structural challenge.
“With data centers and industrial electrification driving sharp increases in power demand, investors need to factor in how essential timely grid expansion is for not only connecting new demand but also connecting all of the generation we will need to ensure a secure and reliable supply to this demand after over a decade of stagnation,” said Peter Wall, Head of Grids Research at BloombergNEF.
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