A new Artificial Intelligence (AI) tool can predict a person’s risk of heart failure five years before it develops, according to a new study.
The tool, developed by the University of Oxford and funded by the British Heart Foundation (BHF), can detect fat around the heart, which is invisible to the human eye, to identify those at risk of developing the disease with an 86 per cent success rate.
Researchers used the tool to examine Computed Tomography (CT) scans from 72,000 patients, looking for textural changes in fat around the heart that indicate the muscle underneath is unhealthy, and which cannot be spotted by doctors through any other medical imaging tests.
AI analysis of these scans can then warn doctors when a patient is at high risk of heart failure, and experts hope the tool can be used to help prevent heart disease from developing in at-risk patients.
Published in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology, the study found that those in the highest risk group were 20 times more likely to develop heart failure than those at low risk, and had a one-in-four chance of heart failure within five years.
Heart failure occurs when the heart is unable to properly pump blood around the body, and is often preceded by heart disease, which itself is often caused by a buildup of fat in the surrounding tissue. It remains the second biggest killer in the UK, with over 54,000 people dying from it in 2024, accounting for 9.6 per cent of all deaths in the country, according to the Office for National Statistics.
Professor Charalambos Antoniades, British Heart Foundation professor of cardiovascular medicine at the University of Oxford and lead researcher on the project, hailed the trial as a “big step forward in treating heart failure” and said it could be used for other conditions.
He said: “Although this study used cardiac CT scans, we are now working towards applying this method to any CT scan of the chest, performed for any reason.
“This will allow doctors to make more informed decisions about the best way to treat patients, giving the most intensive treatment to those at the highest risk.
Currently, around 350,000 patients are referred for cardiac CT scans in the NHS each year, and the researchers are now looking to roll the tool out across the NHS.
Prof Antoniades said: “We hope that, if this programme is rolled out nationwide, it could reduce hospital pressures by helping patients live well for longer.”
Dr Sonya Babu-Narayan, clinical director at the British Heart Foundation, said heart failure is consistently diagnosed too late and sometimes only when a patient is admitted to hospital.
She said: “This tool could help doctors spot heart failure earlier, by monitoring more closely those at highest risk.
“Early heart failure diagnosis is crucial – it means doctors can better manage someone’s condition, which gives them a fighting chance of living longer in better health.
In its 10-year plan titled ‘Fit for the Future’, the government plans to reform the NHS by using new technologies to improve service and efficiency and hopes to “make the NHS the most AI-enabled health system in the world”.
Marianne Ismail, CEO of Microbira, a company that already uses AI for the diagnosis of infections and whose technologies have been validated by the NHS, says it can help save the health service money and called for it to be rolled out more widely.
“Data is something that can be used much more effectively than it is currently being used. That’s going to really help efficiencies in the NHS,” she said.
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