With the Election Commission of India preparing for the Assembly polls in five States, including Kerala, mainline political parties leading the three fronts have also started reworking their political strategy in the elections in the State due in April-May.
For the CPI(M)- led Left Democratic Front (LDF), the just concluded three-tier local body polls was a morale-booster particularly the unexpected victories when the ruling coalition faced a barrage of issues, including the gold smuggling case.
It bagged an additional Corporation, three district panchayats and 32 block panchayats when compared to the 2015 polls.
However, what is worrying for the LDF leaders is that it lost 33 grama panchayats and nine municipalities. When converted to overall seats, the party nominees won only 10,340 seats despite the LDF inducting the Jose K. Mani faction of the Kerala Congress (M), Loktantrik Janata Dal (LJD) and Indian National League (INL) into the coalition.
The leaders do feel the discomfiture in the loss of seats as the dynamics of the Assembly polls would change in another four months even with 11 coalition partners. The strategy of the CPI(M) to gain at the expense of a disarrayed Congress or fielding Independents may not work in a different matrix.
The State Election Commission is yet to published the vote-share of the individual parties and the fronts. In the 2015 polls, the vote share of the LDF was 37.36% while that of the Congress-led UDF was 37.23% and the BJP-led NDA 13.28 %.
But unlike the Congress, the CPI(M) is on a strong footing without any organisational mess after the deft removal of its State secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishnan citing healthe reasons before the polls. However, the possible decline in its vote share will compel them to do reboot its electoral strategy in a wider canvas for the Assembly polls.
The realignment of political forces has visibly dealt a serious blow to the Congress in these elections. And now with the internal bickering in the party coming into the open, its major partner, the Indian Union Muslim League wants the national leadership to intervene and sort out the crisis.
Similarly its vote base have coasted to the BJP in many civic bodies and may have to gird its loins for the Assembly polls.
With the BJP, too, a vertical factionalism in the leadership, has impacted its prospects in the local body polls. The party national leadership feels that the State office-bearers should stop day-dreaming about coming in power and gauge the ground realities in Kerala.
