The world is burning, Donald Trump has lobbed a bomb into a tinderbox and the new year starts ominously. But here on a small island, friendless in its self-imposed isolation, a broken opposition party begins the painful process of pulling itself out of the ashes of catastrophic defeat. It’s small potatoes on the global stage; but as Labour launches its search for a new leader, it can now either confirm its irrelevance, or plant the seeds of recovery – “win or die”, as Angela Rayner warned on Monday.
Before there’s any talk of winning elections, for five long years the country will need the Boris Johnson government to face a rapier-sharp opposition, a fearsome defender of rights at risk, and a forensic exposer of shams and dishonesties. This boastful “prime minister for everyone” will need puncturing, with his fanciful new year promises of a “fantastic year and a remarkable decade of prosperity and opportunity”.
The starting gun is fired by Labour’s ruling national executive committee (NEC). We have an appealing showcase of much of the best of Labour: MPs of conviction, seriousness, good sense and likability. The casual observer will find the candidates saying much the same – time to learn lessons, listen to the lost voters, change without losing Labour values – all done in a show of apparent unity. A glance at Twitter shows the party has been split, rawly exposed in the failed 2016 coup against Corbyn, left v right, leave v remain, Momentum v ordinary members, backroom fixers v the rest. But the shock of the election may have delivered the party a salutary dose of electroconvulsive therapy. YouGov’s poll of members astounded many by having Keir Starmer beating Rebecca Long Bailey by 61% to 39%, assuming a runoff between the two. Unexpected unity is suddenly within grasp.
Until that poll, many proclaimed the new leader must be a northern woman, definitely no Londoner. True, it’s high time Labour had a female leader, but gender doesn’t trump every other desirable quality: Nicola Sturgeon and Margaret Thatcher did their parties proud, but not Theresa May or Jo Swinson. Northern? Boris Johnson, demolisher of the “red wall”, had barely ventured north of Slough, where he was educated, more at home in Mustique than Middlesbrough.
While Labour candidates compete for the inverted snobbery of the born-in-a-shoebox prize, most have good working-class upbringings. So what? Johnson’s silver spoon hindered him not a jot. The lesson is that he appealed to every class and sector – slightly more to C2DEs than ABC1s. It’s not where the leader comes from but what they seem to stand for in the public imagination.
The public can be badly wrong – but winning requires nationwide success, not narrow segmentation targeting particular voters. Lisa Nandy’s plea for northern towns is full of excellent local campaigning plans, but a countrywide vision is what wins. Or, in Johnson’s case, a better feint at a vision than the other party.
It may take finely tuned ears to spot the subtle nuances between candidates’ messages, so take the advice of Herbert Morrison (Peter Mandelson’s grandfather): “Don’t tell me what’s in the motion, lad, just tell me who’s backing it.” Look behind the candidates to see their promoters and Phillips has captured those on the right who, like her, have been most fearless in speaking out truthfully against Corbyn when electoral disaster beckoned – Neil Coyle, Wes Streeting, Margaret Hodge.
Nothing about Long Bailey’s pitch, as set out in these pages, marks her out as especially far left, with her talk of “progressive patriotism” and no mention of socialism. An impeccable working-class girl made good who became a solicitor by her own efforts, Long Bailey’s problem is her history and her supporters. When hoisted into her seat with the aid of Len McCluskey’s Unite union in 2015, she immediately joined the 36 Corbyn nominators. She was rewarded with rapid promotion to the shadow cabinet, where Corbyn and McDonnell both pushed her as heir apparent.
With a seat on the NEC, she has voiced no objections to a series of inside fixes, not even protesting during the antisemitism row. She voted to back Jon Lansman’s failed “drive-by shooting” attempt to abolish Tom Watson’s post. Though respected for developing the excellent Green New Deal, which promised good jobs in former manufacturing zones, and though personally well-liked, that silent obedience in the face of backroom skulduggery will drag her down – as will the names of those promoting her, Lansman especially.
Clive Lewis
Shadow Treasury minister and MP for Norwich South, he rejoined Labour’s frontbench in January 2018, having resigned in February 2017 in order to oppose the bill triggering the Brexit process.
Rebecca Long Bailey
A close ally of the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, the Salford MP and shadow business secretary has been groomed as a potential leftwing contender for the top job.
Pitch Promising to champion “progressive patriotism”.
Lisa Nandy
The Wigan MP has built a reputation as a campaigner for her constituency and others like it, many of which have fallen to the Tories. A soft-left candidate, she resigned from the shadow cabinet in 2016 over Corbyn’s leadership and handling of the EU referendum.
Pitch Wants to “bring Labour home” to voters that have abandoned the party in its traditional strongholds.
Jess Phillips
The MP for Birmingham Yardley is a strong media performer who has built up a significant public profile from the backbenches. Her fiery speeches and witty barbs aimed at the Conservatives frequently go viral online.
Pitch Prepared to argue for Britain to re-enter the European Union and address challenge of bringing back working-class voters.
Keir Starmer
Ambitious former director of public prosecutions has led the charge for remain in the shadow cabinet. He was instrumental in shifting Labour’s position towards backing a second referendum
Pitch Launched his campaign by highlighting how he has stood up for leftwing causes as a campaigning lawyer, and unveiled the slogan “Another Future is Possible”.
Emily Thornberry
The shadow foreign secretary and MP in Islington South and Finsbury, she will have to fight allegations of being part of the “metropolitan elite”.
At each outing, it gets clearer why Starmer is so far the members’ favourite. Leadership qualities come in a thousand varieties: nothing that made Johnson a winner applies to Starmer, but that’s his strength, a weighty foil to the flippant showman. So far, his heft and experience set him head and shoulders above the rest of the contenders. His video outlining a life’s work shows the weight of his legal battles fought and won for good causes, a man you’d want on your side defending you, the one across the Commons dispatch box that the Tories most fear.
“Another future is possible” is his solid opener. On benefits, he demands people be treated “with dignity”. On Brexit he is right, the second referendum battle is lost (Phillips had to correct herself on this). The immediate battle is over the EU deal Johnson strikes. As a uniter of deadlocked left and right, Brexit and remain, it would be hard to find better than Starmer.
But frontrunners are at risk, with 12 weeks ahead in some 30 hustings around the country. Someone will slip up; surprises happen. Phillips attracts venom from the left, but her warmth and spontaneity may count for more in the boredom of these meeting halls, just as Jeremy Corbyn and Ed Miliband stole surprise victories by speaking better human than their early-favoured rivals. Other candidates may suddenly leap up to win over the febrile, election-traumatised membership.
All should be made to answer these questions: will you cleanse the Augean stables of the McCluskey-dominated Labour top offices? Will you pledge to stand down if you fall into irrecoverable unpopularity? Will you prove yourself a non-tribal democrat by backing electoral reform? Have you the wit, brain and cunning to neutralise the monstrous attacks every Labour leader faces from Britain’s unbridled rightwing press? Tories gloating at Labour disarray would get their own jolt of shock treatment on waking to find Starmer at the helm of an opposition back in serious business.
• Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist
