Just over one month into the NBA season and the league is facing a conundrum. The conference imbalance between the East and the West is simply out of control; if the playoffs started today, two Western Conference teams with records under .500 would be included, while the 11th place New York Knicks, good enough for a 7th seed in the West, would be forced to watch the post-season from home. Please NBA, let’s not do that to Kristaps Porzingis.
Of course, this is a joke, mimicking the conversations on NBA message boards over the the Western Conference’s dominance. But with a quarter of the NBA season gone, the improved play from the East is proving to be less of an anomaly and more of a verifiable trend. In fact, the notable improvement by the bulk of the conference’s middling teams has been so stark and unexpected that it’s even quelling the conference-abolition movement that had gained traction over the past decade.
After 101 inter-conference games the East currently has a 54-47 (.534) record against the West. A massive shift (so far) compared to the past two years, when the Western Conference were a combined 547-353 (.610). This level of dominance has led to a view that’s been bandied about in the NBA community for years: conferences are an archaic and arbitrary alignment by modern day standards. The solution would be to simply reward the best 16 teams with a berth in the playoffs regardless of their geographical bearings. Under those rules, Eastern Conference teams would make the playoffs currently.
If this season were to finish at the same rate it would only be the second time in last 16 years that the Eastern Conference had a better record than the West. The Golden State Warriors’ title last season represented the second straight year a team from the West raised a banner and the fifth time in the last seven years overall. As a result, many pundits have attempted to decipher the cause of the imbalance. Some posit that it’s just the random luck of the draw, while others believe that from a top-down perspective, the West’s management has been markedly better than the East.
My favorite theory, has to do with post-industrialization and the rise of Asian manufacturing. This theory is centered on economics: many of the bigger cities in the East are once-thriving metropolises now starved of the kinds of jobs that have been outsourced to Asia.
West coast teams, by comparison, are mostly based out in cities where the economy is more varied. California has entertainment and technology, Oregon is a tech hub, Texas profits off energy and oil. Teams in towns with less money in the economy could mean less disposable income for entertainment, like sports. Long-term effects? Eastern teams have smaller fanbases, budgets, and their owners are less likely to go into the luxury tax to put out a top-tier product.
There’s also the reality that competition breeds excellence. As some Western teams improved over the years they’ve inevitably raised the bar, and thus, more pressure has been mounted on their direct competitors to improve. Wallowing in the doldrums of the conference for an extended period of time isn’t possible: it would be far too harmful for the bottom line.
Whatever the case, a historical look at the genesis of this imbalance shows that while the difference has been so pronounced for so long, much of it stems from a few occurrences that would turn out to have long-term repercussions.
Late 1990s
—Free agent Shaquille O’Neal defects from the conference leaving Orlando to sign with the Los Angeles Lakers. Charlotte trades Kobe Bryant to LA for Vlade Divac and a dynasty is formed. Even after Shaq leaves the West, Kobe’s dominance continues and he plays in seven NBA finals in a decade.
—The Boston Celtics (the 76ers of their time, for one season at least) tank for an intriguing prospect out of Wake Forest by the name of Tim Duncan. Yet the San Antonio Spurs, a far better team, loses David Robinson to an injury, eventually falling to the third-worst record that year. The Spurs leapfrog the Celtics in the lottery and reap the rewards for over a decade. Duncan surpasses his lofty expectations and turns out to not only be a star player, but an all-time great who drastically alters the trajectory of the franchise.
—In 1998, the Dallas Mavericks land Dirk Nowitzki in a draft-day trade with the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks took back journeyman Robert ‘Tractor’ Traylor, and the Mavs get the best player in franchise history.
2000s
—Post-millennium we see a potential Orlando dynasty of Grant Hill and Tracy McGrady derailed due to Hill’s injury problems. Tim Duncan seriously flirts with the Magic in free agency but decides to remain in San Antonio. In an alternate reality Duncan, Tracy McGrady, and Grant Hill coached by Doc Rivers is enough for at least one guaranteed championship. There’s just far too much talent there.
—The elite Pistons miss out on a sustained run of dominance when they manage to draft the one player in the top 5 of the historic 2003 draft that doesn’t eventually become a hall of famer, Darko Milicic.
2010s
—The formation of the Miami “big three” directly dilutes the competition in the conference. By taking two star players from two Eastern Conference rivals both franchises are sent into a rebuild.
—The Oklahoma City Thunder luck out in consecutive drafts picking: Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, Jeff Green and James Harden. An unprecedented series of consecutive draft picks and one of the few times in NBA history a franchise has been able to rebuild so organically.
Could this be defined as a series of unfortunate events, or just a random occurrence? Likely a bit of both, but after years of being beaten into submission it seems the East is finally beginning to fight back, and it’s a change that’s not been lost on the players.
“I think from a collective group of all 15 teams, trying to just hold our end of the bargain and not be the sought-after conference.” Lebron James recently told Cleveland.com about the East’s improved play this season. “Our conference has been downplayed and we’ve taken it personal.”
It’s understandable why James may feel slighted, the dominance of the Western Conference and conversely the perceived and frankly legitimate weakness of the east has been somewhat of a blemish on his career. James has made a habit out of obliterating the East en route to the finals: he’s now made it to five straight NBA Finals posting a record of 2-3 in the process. It’s a record that deserves plaudits but detractors have focused on how easy it’s been for LeBron to steamroll the competition compared to bloodbath in the west.
The draft and the draft lottery is ultimately designed to remedy this problem. Worst teams get the best picks and those players soon develop and eventually balance the scales, it makes sense in theory. But not only is the draft a crapshoot, even the lottery is somewhat flawed in its execution sometimes. Over the years better Western Conference teams have been in the lottery, while weaker East teams snuck into the playoffs, lost, and picked lower-rated prospects in the late teens. Luck also plays a role, take for instance the New Orleans Pelicans nabbing Anthony Davis in the 2012 draft despite the fact the Charlotte Bobcats finished with an NBA all time worst mark of 7-59 (.104) in the lockout-shortened season.
Luck aside; it appears some of the talent off the court is emerging out East. The Bucks, Hawks, Pistons and Celtics are all benefiting from fantastic coaching; each team would likely boast a lower record without their respective coaches. James Dolan of the Knicks has loosened his iron grip on the franchise, allowing Phil Jackson to build a team instead of just lumping random parts together. The Pacers are secretly elite and Paul George, the Eastern Conference Player of the Month, is back to his best.
That said, while the improvements have lead to more East teams entering the “middle class” of the NBA, the real test still lies at the top. There still isn’t much of an argument for anyone but the Cleveland Cavaliers to win the conference. The Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers will cause problems for LeBron and co, but they lack the talent and experience level of the West elites. Golden State, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, and even the Los Angeles Clippers for all their dysfunction, are all considered legitimate contenders.
Of course, for some of the more-experienced and underperforming Western teams, logic says that they’ll return to form as the season progresses. And while it may be prudent to wait until the end of the season to really assess the shift it does appear that the Eastern Conference has closed the gap, and that’s good for basketball.
