A confidential Drug Enforcement Administration analysis has concluded that President Donald Trump's military campaign targeting suspected drug trafficking vessels has failed to significantly disrupt the flow of cocaine into the United States, despite nearly a year of operations that have killed more than 220 suspected traffickers and sparked legal and humanitarian concerns.
The previously undisclosed assessment, reviewed by The Washington Post, found that the campaign, known as Operation Southern Spear, has had little lasting impact on cocaine's availability, purity, or street price in the U.S. market. While the military strikes initially caused brief supply disruptions and temporary price increases, investigators concluded that trafficking networks adapted quickly, allowing the illicit drug trade to recover.
According to the DEA report, criminal organizations responded by abandoning many of the high-speed "go-fast" boats targeted by U.S. forces. Instead, cartels shifted to larger commercial vessels, moved shipments closer to coastlines where military engagement is less likely, and increasingly relied on aircraft departing clandestine airstrips near the Colombia-Venezuela border to reach destinations including Guyana and Suriname.
"When you squeeze the balloon on one side, it always expands on the other side," one DEA official told The Washington Post, describing how trafficking organizations rapidly altered their logistics in response to the military campaign.
The findings directly challenge repeated claims by Trump, who has said his administration reduced maritime drug trafficking by as much as 97% to 98% since launching Operation Southern Spear in September 2025. Drug policy experts and independent fact-checkers have questioned those figures, arguing there is no reliable method to measure the total volume of cocaine entering the United States and that seizure statistics alone cannot demonstrate a reduction in overall trafficking.
The DEA also found that cocaine purity has remained consistently high, another indicator that supply has not tightened despite the military campaign. Pentagon officials reportedly reached similar conclusions during classified briefings with lawmakers, telling members of Congress that the operation had not measurably affected the purity of cocaine available on American streets.
The White House disputed suggestions that the campaign has failed.
"Transnational criminal organizations have continually adapted their tactics for decades," Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell told The Washington Post. "That does not indicate the pressure is ineffective. It demonstrates that we are imposing systemic friction on their operations."
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly also defended the strategy, saying the strikes have eliminated traffickers, forced criminal organizations to alter their operations and deterred future smuggling attempts. She dismissed criticism of the campaign as "laughable."
Since Operation Southern Spear began, U.S. forces have carried out dozens of strikes against suspected trafficking boats in the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific Ocean. Earlier this year, the Pentagon confirmed the operations had killed at least 157 alleged cartel members or associates, but subsequent reporting indicates the death toll has now exceeded 220 people.
The campaign has generated growing criticism from legal scholars, human rights organizations and some members of Congress, who have questioned both the legality of conducting lethal strikes in international waters and whether the military has sufficient evidence to identify everyone targeted as active traffickers. Critics have also argued that the strategy risks civilian casualties while failing to address the financial networks and distribution systems that sustain the cocaine trade.
Ultimately, the DEA assessment suggests the campaign has imposed operational costs on trafficking organizations without achieving its central objective. Rather than significantly reducing the amount of cocaine reaching the United States, investigators found that cartels simply evolved, adopting new routes and transportation methods that have allowed the supply chain to remain largely intact despite months of military pressure.
