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Health
East Asia correspondent Bill Birtles

After China's loudest protests in decades, Xi Jinping will be treading extremely carefully as the nation mourns Jiang Zemin

The death of a former Chinese leader remembered for his affable public persona is posing a fresh challenge to Xi Jinping's efforts to quell anger over his ongoing COVID-zero drive.

Jiang Zemin, who restored China's relations with the West after the Tiananmen Square crackdown, died on Wednesday, just days after the most widespread displays of dissent in the country since 1989.

Mr Jiang spent 13 years at the top of the world's most populous nation, overseeing an economic boom that included China's entry into the World Trade Organization.

The meme-worthy politician stepped down as Communist Party leader in 2002 but was still believed to wield influence within the party.

Former Chinese leader Jiang Zemin dies aged 96.

"He was jovial and had a good sense of humour. In many respects, he was one of the most interesting world leaders I met," said former prime minister John Howard, who saw Mr Jiang on multiple occasions over seven years when their respective periods in power overlapped.

"Jiang had this great interest in Western music and culture and movies. He'd occasionally quote Shakespeare."

The former leader's death comes at a highly politically sensitive moment in China, given the past week of unprecedented dissent.

Mr Jiang's contrasting style to Mr Xi, which included occasionally singing, dancing and publicly debating with journalists on camera, is being highlighted on Chinese social media in a nostalgic nod that the current leadership is hoping to carefully manage.

"I think this will be one of the most sensitive moments in Chinese politics in a very long time because it doesn't happen every day that an old leader dies," said William Hurst, a professor at the University of Cambridge who studies protest movements and politics in China.

How Jiang Zemin's death will be carefully managed

Within China, Jiang Zemin has been hailed by Xi Jinping as an "outstanding leader", "a great Marxist" and "a great proletarian revolutionary".

The nation's websites have been switched to black and white for what will be a highly stage-managed mourning period.

But while his death may serve as a welcome distraction from a series of anti-lockdown protests targeting the government's COVID-control policies, history buffs note the deaths of former leaders have in the past triggered protests, including in 1989.

"There is a potential for people to look to [Mr Jiang] and to think back to a time when Chinese politics was moving in a very different direction," Professor Hurst said.

"I really don't think that it's likely that people will rally around his death the way that they did in April of 1989 with the death of [former general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party] Hu Yaobang, but I do think that the government will be very worried to make sure that that doesn't happen."

Mr Hurst said given the worry and anxiety this would cause the state, it was likely to make "all of Chinese politics more tense".

Graeme Smith, a China expert at Australian National University, agreed Mr Jiang's death was extremely unlikely to boost the fizzling protest movement.

"Jiang Zemin is quite an ambiguous figure," he said.

"He wasn't a liberal reformer. He absolutely defended the party's interests.

"Sure people talk about him on the internet, and by praising him they can be seen to be criticising the current regime, but how much of a danger is that to the current leadership really?"

Already Mr Xi, through a combination of carrots and sticks, is trying to make sure history does not repeat itself this time.

The hurdles to China's further easing of COVID restrictions

Under pressure, Xi reverts to an old carrot-and-stick strategy

Having deployed the world's strongest domestic security and surveillance force to curtail small but widespread protests, Chinese authorities in Beijing, Guangzhou and other cities are now loosening restrictions to quell anger.

As daily new COVID-19 cases continue to hover around 40,000, the country continues to step further away from Mr Xi's three-year pursuit of zero cases, as increasingly mixed messages on coronavirus emerge within state propaganda.

State media has started taking aim at PCR testing companies with articles and exposes about falsifying results and profiteering, in a move at odds with previous efforts to maintain support for regular testing during outbreaks.

Guangzhou, a city that has recorded thousands of new cases a day for weeks and been the scene of multiple protests including clashes with riot police this week, is now taking the lead on loosening controls.

Multiple districts in Beijing too have advised that infants, the elderly and people working or studying from home no longer require daily PCR tests, although some residents are choosing to opt out.

"I think people generally are just a bit burned out from it all," Qiao, a resident of Beijing's central Chaoyang district who didn't want to give his full name, told the ABC.

"You only have to do the tests if you go out, so I'm just staying at home instead."

The PCR test data is linked to each person's health code, meaning those who haven't been tested within a certain time period — sometimes as little as 24 hours — will see their health code change colour, barring them from accessing public transport, shops and workplaces.

It is a form of movement restriction that protesters recently targeted with chants of "we want freedom" and "no to PCR tests".

The loosening-up contrasts with some state media editorials this week holding the line on an official policy that still aims for zero cases in the community.

Concerns for Uyghur rights under China's draconian COVID restrictions

A prominent editorial by the propaganda department in the eastern province of Zhejiang this week recast the meaning of a key Xi Jinping quote, saying: "Putting people first doesn't mean putting COVID control [measures] first."

Ultimately the editorial aired the many grievances people have about the COVID-19 restrictions, while urging people to stay loyal to the existing policy by comparing it to a boat that has not reached the other side of a river yet.

But in another small sign that Beijing appears to be raising the white flag on elimination of the virus, an article from state news agency Xinhua omitted mention of "COVID-zero" when describing the measures.

"Re-open is certain, but re-open will also be slower, more prolonged and bumpier than people think," tweeted Liqian Ren, a US-based financial commentator who has been closely watching the policy developments.

The suppression of dissent has already begun

If the small step-by-step relaxation of measures across different cities is the carrot, coercion and surveillance are the stick to stop any further protests.

After deploying huge numbers of police in Beijing, Shanghai and other cities to prevent more gatherings, China's internet censors have raised their alert level.

According to China Digital Times, a website that has long published what it says are leaked censorship directives, the deputy director of the nation's internet censorship body, Niu Yibing, initiated a level 1 internet emergency response this week.

The highest level of content management reportedly ordered the nation's army of censors and public opinion-guidance workers to "identify, deal with and report" information about disturbances, including content from overseas sites.

The orders also told internet companies to further crack down on services and VPN apps that circumvent the Communist Party's pervasive censorship.

Offline, police are reportedly tracking down participants of the demonstrations.

Media reports say some people who attended the protests in Beijing have been contacted by police and ordered to give a written account explaining why they were there.

Videos posted from a Beijing university show a student being led away by plain-clothes men, yelling, "Without freedom, I'd rather die," as he was taken.

Police in Shanghai have been filmed on the street and on the subway stopping people and searching their phones, reportedly for images of the protests or overseas apps.

And in Hong Kong, the city's security chief, Chris Tang, has warned participants in a series of rare, small protests this week may be in breach of the notorious national security law, which is used by Chinese authorities to jail people for political crimes.

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