ONE of the earliest lessons of 2020 was the way COVID-19 exposed fragilities in global supply chains, leading the West to reconsider what suddenly looked like an excessive reliance on China as the world's factory.
The most earnest of New Year resolutions often fade with time, and the need to re-tool domestically may not look so urgent if the various coronavirus vaccines do their jobs this year, and the old supply chains are restored.
Either way, China - or, more precisely, its relations with the rest of the world - will be a high-level issue on the 2021 global political agenda.
COVID-19 AT YEAR'S END:
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NSW records 10 new cases
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'Concern' not 'alarm' recommended for coronavirus variants
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Germany expects quick vaccine approval
- 'Mary-Ann' from Gilligan's Island dies from the virus, aged 82
- The latest Australian border restrictions
The United States will remain hostile to China regardless of the politics of its president.
And China, tired of hiding its light under a bushel, has added aggressive "wolf warrior" tactics and unilateral trade sanctions to a diplomatic bag of tricks that included the "infrastructure as aid" spending of its "One Belt One Road" programs.
As we outlined during the year, China has substantial (by our standards) interests in this region, notably a half-share in the Port of Newcastle and control of the Hunter's second-biggest coal miner, Yancoal.
These investments have created little real controversy so far, but this could change if the China debate were to heat up, with a global inquiry into the origins of COVID-19 a potential trigger.
Assuming the various coronavirus vaccines do their job, political and market attention will increasingly turn to the massive levels of government debt racked up to avoid an economic collapse that has threatened the world since the global financial crisis.
Interest rates much higher than the ones we live with now were described as "emergency" levels when introduced a decade ago.
An estimated $40 trillion has been spent, globally, on COVID stimulus, and no theorist, central banker or politician can confidently predict a path back to pre-coronavirus, and pre-GFC, economic conditions.
In the Hunter, the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show us lagging the state and the nation when it comes to restoring jobs lost during the pandemic.
If we are to prosper from here, we will need to ensure that above-average unemployment rates do not become a structural feature of our jobs market.
Especially with the federal government pushing workplace reform as a driver of national recovery during 2021.
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