BASKING RIDGE, N.J. — New Jersey Democrats entered Election Day 2022 with the trauma still fresh from 2021, when a Republican surge took out their state Senate president, substantially narrowed their legislative majorities and came within a few points of ousting Gov. Phil Murphy.
But Tuesday's results turned out about as well as most in the party dared hope.
“You’re always going to have pause and concern and there’s going to be a little nervousness,” Democratic State Chair LeRoy Jones said in an interview Wednesday. “If you don’t have that, you’re overconfident, you get caught flat-footed. We’ve seen that happen in New Jersey.”
Democrats held onto nine of the 10 U.S. House seats they control. In Central Jersey's 7th District, however, Republican Tom Kean Jr. defeated Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski, who conceded Wednesday morning. Malinowski defeated Kean Jr. by 1 percentage point in 2020.
Kean Jr.'s victory was not a surprise, as Malinowski was a Democratic sacrifice. Democrats prevailed in the redistricting process last year, redrawing the 7th District to lean more Republican in order to shore up the districts of three other potentially vulnerable Democratic incumbents — Andy Kim (3rd District), Mikie Sherrill (11th District) and Josh Gottheimer (5th District). All three were re-elected Tuesday.
Tuesday's results were far from the nightmare New Jersey Democrats feared. Confident Republicans and many pundits anticipated a potential red wave that could overcome the wall Democrats built in redistricting, potentially even endangering a powerful longtime incumbent like House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Frank Pallone in the 6th District.
That wave didn’t materialize in New Jersey — including in Pallone’s Jersey Shore-based district — or in the rest of the country.
“The people of New Jersey just sent a resounding message that we will continue to reject right-wing extremism and instead elect public servants who will fight for our middle class families and our personal freedoms,” Jones, the state Democratic chair, said in a statement shortly after midnight Wednesday.
Still, Kean Jr.’s victory could help the GOP retake control of the House of Representatives. Republicans are still favored to win an exceptionally-narrow majority.
It was a deflating night for the GOP. Republicans who pushed the lie that former President Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election fared poorly. And the U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade appears to have been a potent issue for Democrats.
“Certainly the Dobbs decision took some of the wind out of our sails, as did the way some of our candidates handled that issue,” said former state Assemblymember Jack Ciattarelli, the 2021 GOP gubernatorial nominee who came within 3 points of unseating Murphy last year.
Ciattarelli, who said in his concession speech last year that he intends to run for governor again in 2025, declined to say in an interview Wednesday morning which candidates he was talking about. But Republicans struggled to respond coherently on abortion when Democrats hammered them on the issue, often trying to find a middle-ground between supporting the Supreme Court’s decision while expressing support for leaving the matter up to states to decide.
In North Jersey's 5th Congressional District, Republican Frank Pallotta in one day last month went from highlighting his anti-abortion bona fides to opposing a nationwide abortion ban to supporting a nationwide 20-week abortion ban. Pallotta lost Tuesday to incumbent Gottheimer by 10 points.
In the 11th District, Republican candidate Paul DeGroot, attempting to take a nuanced position on abortion in which he opposed federal legislation that would overturn state bans, sued Sherrill over the way her campaign ads portrayed his position. Sherrill defeated DeGroot by 16 points.
Though Kean Jr. prevailed against Malinowski, he stumbled over an abortion question during a candidates’ forum last month, struggling to articulate his position that he favors banning abortions after 20 weeks in most cases. He also had a section of his campaign website, intended for consumption by the June Republican primary electorate and not linked by the main site, that made him sound staunchly anti-abortion.
“I think when it comes to New Jersey elections, Republican candidates need to speak to New Jersey issues. That’s what resonates with New Jersey voters,” Ciattarelli said. “I think if last night reaffirms anything, it’s that there’s a big difference between federal and statewide elections in New Jersey.”
In a radio interview Wednesday morning, Murphy said future messaging from Democrats, particularly headed into the 2024 presidential election, should focus on working families.
Murphy, whose name has been floated as a possible 2024 presidential candidate should President Joe Biden choose not to seek reelection, said Democrats need to show voters "we are at your kitchen table," including on issues of affordability, opportunity, accessible health care and living wages.
