Daytime temperatures in excess of 30 degrees celsius are good news for those spending their autumn holidays in southern and central France – but weather forecasters are worried the unusual conditions are just another manifestation of climate change.
For the past two weeks, a huge depression has been moored out in the Atlantic, bathing most of coastal and south-central Europe in warm air from the Sahara Desert.
This is perfectly normal for the time of year, except that this Atlantic depression is bigger and more long-lasting that usual
Average daily temperatures for the whole of France have been 5° hotter than usual for the month of October.
And the forecasters at the national weather service, Météo France, see no signs of a change in the near future.
"We're predicting higher than normal temperatures until at least 20 November," says climate analyst Christine Berne.
And we'd better get used to it, because the phenomenon is here to stay.
"With global warming, summer heatwaves are likely to start earlier and continue on into the autumn," says Pierre Huat of Weather Solutions, a private company offering forecasts to concerned professionals in such sectors as shipping, agriculture and energy. "We're going to see more of the same, more of the time."
La Nina makes it three-in-a-row
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has already suggested that we're headed for a mercifully mild winter in Europe.
This is because of the "La Nina" global weather phenomenon, which is related to cooling surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
That should lead to cooler, drier conditions in southern Europe, and intense stroms further north, as anti-cyclones surge across the Atlantic, gorged with rainwater.
This is the third year in succession that La Nina conditions have been observed, only the third such three year sequence since observations began in the 1950s.
The up-coming Australian summer could, as a result, be 20 percent wetter than usual, and Mexico and central America face drought.
But no one is really sure.
