Africa’s growth could outpace Asia’s for the first time in 2026, figures from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggest, as the continent’s population continues to rise fast.
Some countries are forecast to grow at double-digit rates, including Guinea, while average growth in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to reach 4.6 percent.
Over the same period, according to the IMF's latest economic outlook, the combined economies of Asia will slow to around 4.1 per cent.
Analysts say Africa’s key advantage lies in its youth, which is rising faster than other regions – but needs investment to live up to its economic potential.
Population surge
By 2050, one in four people worldwide will be African, according to the French Development Agency (AFD), France’s development bank.
In its annual review of Africa’s main macroeconomic indicators, published this month, the AFD pointed to a growing workforce and strong potential for innovation and creativity.
At the same time, Europe is entering a demographic winter and could lose 20 percent of its working-age population within the next 25 years, while China recorded its lowest birth rate last year.
France records more deaths than births for first time since 1945
North Africa and southern Africa are undergoing a demographic transition, with birth rates falling in South Africa and Morocco.
High numbers of births continue in East Africa, including Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda. West Africa, and particularly the Sahel, currently has the highest fertility rates in the world.
Very high fertility can harm the economy. Rwanda and Malawi have reduced fertility to 3.6 children per woman through family planning programmes, based on data in the AFD publication.
Jobs a priority
The economic dividend comes when fertility falls after population growth, the AFD said – when there are proportionally fewer children to support and a large generation born during a boom reaches working age.
To benefit, countries need to invest in education, create decent jobs and move away from informal economies that leave young people in precarious work.
European countries have an interest in continuing to contribute funding to Africa because the continent’s economic health matters for European economies, the AFD added.
France sees immigration shift as more educated Africans arrive than Europeans
Yet public development aid has fallen sharply in Europe and France’s draft 2026 budget includes further cuts.
“We need to move from a logic of aid that is poorly understood and sometimes rejected to a logic of investment – high-quality, solidarity-based and sustainable – that creates social ties and integrates climate issues and economic growth, in order to create jobs,” AFD director general Rémi Rioux told RFI.
France’s presidency of the G7 in 2026 could help bring about “a new framework and a powerful architecture for development financing”, he added.
This story has been adapted from the original version in French by RFI's Alexis Bedu.
