There will still be over a billion people in the world smoking in 2025 unless further action is taken, according to a study published in the Lancet.
Using data from the World Health Organisation (WHO) database, the researchers looked at the prevalence of male smoking in 173 countries and female smoking in 178. They found that in the vast majority smoking rates had gone down between 2000 and 2010 - that is the good news.
The bad news? Their estimate based on these patterns is that in the 15 years up to 2025 there is 95% probability that the decline will only continue among men in 43 (25%) of those countries.
In fact, there are 21 countries where it looks like smoking rates will actually go up among the male population.
Under the equivalent figures for women, a slight majority (52%) of countries will see a drop over the 15-year period.
This means that by 2025 there will be 1.1bn people smoking with “rapid” increases in the rates among men in Africa and both genders in the eastern Mediterranean.
What will that look like? Using the country-specific estimates smoking prevalence among men it will go from this ...
To this ...
Many of the areas with an increasing population of smokers are developing countries.
The report was released as part of a series calling for a tobacco-free world by 2040 to coincide with the ten-year anniversary of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.
