Expect the unexpected at the top
Firstly, I’m not one of those bullhorns who talks about finals based on second-round results. But the early-season ladder offers the entertainment of seeing which teams can go the longest undefeated. In the best years this sets up a blockbuster some time after round 10. This year, not only are we already down to five teams, but there are surprises among them.
Not Fremantle or Sydney, who’ve won their first two games several times in recent seasons, but fellow partygoers Adelaide, Greater Western Sydney and the Western Bulldogs. The Giants have won their two openers for the first time – they nearly did it last year after upsetting Sydney, but a Nick Riewoldt special cost them against St Kilda. This year they took out Riewoldt individually and the Saints collectively, then smashed Melbourne last weekend. Not the toughest start, but their enthusiasm is up.
The Doggies last had two early wins in their era of endless preliminary finals back in 2009. Adelaide’s last two successful starts were in 2012 and 2002, and they made preliminary finals both years. I’m still not saying any of these clubs will get that far this year, but it’s a heartening start.
Expect the unexpected at the bottom
Five teams at the top with a perfect start, five at the bottom with a perfectly imperfect one. Here too are surprises: Port Adelaide down in 15th spot, while Geelong have defaulted on their top-four mortgage and are sleeping rough on skid row. The only company in the winless brigade comes from Brisbane, Carlton and Gold Coast.
Port and Geelong had tough starts: both lost to a Fremantle side that has started with vigour, while Port played Sydney and Geelong played Hawthorn. But it’s still a fair jolt for teams that were in last year’s premiership mix. Port have more recent memories of abjection, but as Geelong captain Joel Selwood noted post-match, he’s reached his ninth year at the club without ever losing the first two games of a season.
In fact it’s been over a decade: 2004 was the last time Geelong started this badly, and round three of that season was the last time they were bottom of the ladder, descending to the cellar for a single week. It shouldn’t last: Geelong haven’t been bottom of the latter in the second half of a season since 1973. After that 2004 start they bounced back to finish fourth and were pipped in a preliminary final by the era’s champion Brisbane side.
Geelong’s road back starts with Gold Coast – if the Cats manage to lose that then it might be officially time to panic. Port have an in-form North Melbourne followed by Hawthorn: they’ll be feeling a few nerves already.
Essendon need to master the slow fade
You’d forgive Essendon players feeling hard done by, having missed their pre-season because of the Asada case that was then dismissed. Whether or not it makes a difference, they gave up a 41-point lead to Sydney in round one, then nearly did the same from 35 points ahead of Hawthorn.
When the Hawks hit the front, the last-quarter Bombers looked cooked. No one was hitting targets. An errant handball to Joe Daniher ruined a charge forward. The experienced Adam Cooney turned the ball over to a two-on-one on the wing. No one ran for him. They sent high bombs forward that gave defenders an age to get back. In the meantime Hawthorn’s Bradley Hill and Cyril Rioli were everywhere, running endlessly, mopping up every Bomber spill.
It was brave by Essendon to will themselves to three late goals: Travis Collyer’s reserve nitro booster, defender Cale Hooker fortuitously following an opponent into Essendon’s forward line and turning the tables. But there was fortune: Luke Breust had the ball and an open goal-square but needed one more second on the clock. Essendon survived, but they need to be better for the run.
Josh Kennedy will fill his boots
In a tightly contested match-up on Friday night, Josh Kennedy kicked 10 goals while Carlton kicked nine. OK, if we count behinds then Kennedy kicked 10.1 to 9.8, and Carlton win by a point. But Josh kicked straighter, and unfortunately Kennedy’s team-mates managed another 10 goals between them, rather putting the result out of reach.
Kennedy took contested marks, congested marks, and Mick-Malthouse-nearly-combusted marks. He kicked goals alone and he kicked them in company. He cut off kick-ins and grabbed loose balls from the grass. He dished off a gimme to Mark LeCras, then was ignored in reply while LeCras sank a trick shot.
That’s the third time in his career that he’s topped the 10-goal mark, something we rarely see from key forwards in the age of surge running and congestion. The other bags were against GWS and the Bulldogs, so he’s not exactly taking down powerhouses. But if you have a shaky defence, prepare to get monstered.
It’s not easy being Dees
Ever since Steven Febey challenged the god Apollo to a panflute duel, a curse has fallen over the Melbourne Football Club. Grim fortune holds the Demons at its whim. Occasional moments of brightness are all that balance out long months of cloud. One such came in round one, when the Demons managed to start the season with a win for the first time in a decade. Eyeing a date with GWS had them dreaming of the double.
They led by nearly six goals in the second quarter. Ben Newton had a hand in a couple of them. If you’d told a Dees fan, at 27 points up, that Newton was about to kick their next two back-to-back, they’d have been delighted. Only problem was that he kicked the first in the second quarter, the next halfway through the fourth, and in between GWS kicked 14 of their own.
There were coast-to-coasters, pack-carriers, hustled snaps and forward-pocket miracles. They hit the target 14 times and missed it twice. They ran like… well, demons, but ones that could actually play football. The kids in orange are maturing faster than their fellow expansioneers, and for an hour on Saturday afternoon all that draft talent clicked ominously. Unless Paul Roos’s exit strategy is via a sacrificial altar, Melbourne’s fortunes will be unchanged.
