Friday night football
As the supporters of the 17 other clubs continue to grapple with the fact that a Hawthorn three-peat looks depressingly likely, they might also pause to consider the fact that the high-flying Hawks might actually drop tonight’s game against Richmond. Yes, I’m being serious. This is exactly the kind of game they’ve dropped late in the season the last few years, no example better than their aberrant 41-point loss to the Tigers in Round 19 of 2013.
Others include last year’s 20-point Round 16 loss to North Melbourne and falling 19 short of Fremantle in Round 21. Neither proved a significant setback and after their defence-slashing brilliance of the past month they’re possibly due an off night. Games between these two sides in the last five years have been blow-outs too.
One thing is for sure; Richmond can’t afford to kick as badly as they did last week, when crucial shots on goal by Ben Griffiths, Jack Riewoldt and a host of others cruelled their chances of arresting Fremantle’s late momentum. That’s what lost them the game, not Bachar Houli’s last-minute brain-fade in defence. Hawthorn’s big issue at the moment is – correctly re-jigging their line-up – is a luxurious kind. Matthew Suckling and Matt Spangher miss this week with injury while Jono O’Rourke and Angus LItherland are omitted after failing to nail down a spot, but what an eviable list of inclusions they boast in Liam Shiels, James Frawley, Ben Stratton and Taylor Duryea.
With Ty Vickery and Reece Conca back in the Tigers side this week, what had shaped as an awkward decision on Richmond’s big men was taken out of their hands by injuries to Shaun Hampson and Ben Griffiths. But what price either of the latter pair being a significant factor in a final? In solidarity with Adam Goodes, the Tigers will wear their Indigenous Round guernsey in this game, a small but symbolic measure to let the prouder public know where they stand on the matter.
The Pies will finally break their losing streak
From a win-loss perspective the Pies are now in their worst form trough in a decade, so what shaped a month back as a near-certain win against Melbourne is far less so on Saturday afternoon at the MCG. Lose this and the Pies are probably done as a finals aspirant because a tough road game against Sydney, a curly one against Geelong and a final round clash with nothing-to-lose Essendon to round out the regular season.
The Dees are well and truly cooked at this point of course and their tame effort against St Kilda showed to a worrying degree the way that several other clubs currently in development mode have so easily leapfrogged Melbourne this year. Coach Paul Roos was at pains this week to point out that Melbourne remains a “destination club” for out-of-contract players, though probably only the kind you end up at after drunkenly booking yourself a mystery flight in the cab home from the pub. The destination he should be most worried about is the Demon’s forward 50, which they’re failing to reach to an alarming degree. Poor Jesse Hogan - he’d be kicking eight goals a week in a fully functioning side.
Nathan Buckley’s selection panel has reacted decisively in response to last week’s debacle against the Dogs, dropping Jarryd Blair, Ben Kennedy and maligned tall Jesse White and resting Adam Oxley. In come Paul Seedsman, Sam Dwyer, Jamie Elliott and Taylor Adams, a very handy quartet that will probably make Dees fans gulp. Let’s be honest, Melbourne never beat Collingwood and they’ll be much like a rebound relationship here for the Pies; satisfying very basic requirements until something serious presents.
A bad week might somehow get worse for Sydney
I’ve already said everything that discretion allows with regards to the football fans who boo Sydney champion Adam Goodes but what a sorry state of affairs for the game – and a poor reflection on those who claim to hold it dear - that he’ll take no part in this weekend’s game against Adelaide as a direct result of the appalling way in which he’s been treated by crowds this year.
Making matters worse for Sydney is that they’re fading badly in recent weeks. It’s certainly better that a slump happens now than in a month’s time but the mood has certainly darkened on their campaign. There’s not even many positives to cling to either because they’re neither scoring sufficiently nor defending particularly well in recent times and the latter is a real problem against an Adelaide side boasting one of the best and most versatile groups of forwards in the league.
The Crows desperately need a win here as well, because their run home is mixture of winnable games and potential snafus but when you watch Betts, Walker, Jenkins and Cameron causing scoring chaos, you can just as easily see them as the type of danger side that pinches a finals win off a better-fancied team. The Crows have fared poorly against the Swans in recent years but this time they get them when they’re looking vulnerable.
Fremantle will chalk up yet another win
That Fremantle’s Sunday home game against the Giants counts as the fourth most interesting game of the round is something of an indictment on this lukewarm weekend of fixtures because in the three previous league meetings between these two sides GWS has lost by a combined total of 284 points and another hammering is not entirely out of the question. The Giants are a far better side now of course and legitimately vying for a finals berth, but only to make up the numbers for now. They’ll enter three of their five remaining games after this one as favourites.
Sitting at 14-2 now, the challenge for the Dockers for the rest of the regular season is one of subtle recalibrations and refinements, because Ross Lyon’s not one for major changes in the latter stages of the year. Fremantle weren’t super impressive on the MCG last week against Richmond, benefiting from their opposition’s appalling collapse as much as their usual resilience. Zac Dawson, Tendai Mzungu and Zac Clarke head a host of inclusions here but Brownlow Medal favourite Nat Fyfe misses with that niggling groin injury.
The best and worst of the rest
It’s hard to dress up the rest of the round as any more than it is – a series of lop-sided and uninspiring match-ups. First up is middling Geelong and Justin Leppitsch’s utterly putrid Brisbane, on track for their 10th consecutive loss and igniting debate about priority picks. Then on Saturday night you’ve got the choice of watching West Coast dismantling undermanned Gold Coast or the dismal pairing of Carlton and North Melbourne, entertainment prospects that make the second season of True Detective suddenly seem far more appealing than it is.
Sunday is more enticing by default with Port Adelaide still hanging on to their hopes of playing finals when they take on pacey, exuberant St Kilda at Adelaide Oval. Rounding out the weekend are the Bulldogs, favourites with neutrals and entering their clash with Essendon as hot favourites after dispatching Collingwood last week. Essendon has been a bogey team for the Dogs in recent years but that’s likely to change here. Even relaxing in the Edgbaston crowd with a beer and taking in some Ashes cricket yesterday, injured Dons skipper Jobe Watson still couldn’t escape the experience of calamitous losses.
