Don’t get your hopes up, but 2021 might just be the year the AFL gets its mojo back. Australia’s much-loved indigenous code has been suffering an identity crisis for nigh on two decades now, mired in a losing battle against an invisible enemy. There is no dirtier word in the game than congestion, and the game has never been harder to watch.
Up to now the AFL’s efforts to scratch this evolutionary itch have been well meaning at best, ineffectual at worst. The cold war has been won by a sophistication in coaching that repeatedly finds a way through the regulatory minefield. But the new season’s boldest inception, the man on the mark rule, could be the game changer the AFL has long sought.
At first the rule – which essentially disallows the player standing the mark any movement, be it forward, backward or lateral – looked trifling, with the potential to do little more than infuriate a following that has grown weary of rule changes that come, go and do nothing to improve the sport. The detractors have predictably been vocal, and this season the concession of a 50-metre penalty for an encroaching toenail will no doubt send some into a muck lather of rage.
But the theory of the rule is sound: by expanding passing avenues previously denied to the ball carrier, stoppages will reduce, play will open up and, fingers crossed, scoring will head north. On the limited evidence of pre-season games, the AFL might finally be onto something.
Granted, warm-ups in mid-March should not be considered a cast-iron pointer for the season to come. But even with that caveat, the differences were hard to miss. Stoppages were down, as were tackles, while uncontested marks were on the rise. And scoring levels had an old school look about them. Of the nine pre-season fixtures, just one was won by a team that kicked fewer than 10 goals while four of the contests tallied aggregates of 200-plus points. These are figures unheard of in modern times.
Allied with the reduction in rotations from 90 to 75 this year, the man on the mark rule looks set to have a telling influence on the look and feel of the game. The ball is now in the court of coaches, who will already have their views on how to best counteract the changes thrust upon them.
These are but seedlings of a more optimistic future but they are real nonetheless. Significantly, the areas of the game addressed will have a net effect on the game’s visual appeal. Last year, after yawning through a game against North Melbourne, Hawthorn coach Alistair Clarkson said what many were thinking: “The spectacle of the game, I’m concerned right now with where we’re going with it.” He added the code was in a “dreadful space”. The tipping point had already been reached but now it had a voice. If these new rules work, the views of Clarkson and others like him will make for essential reading.
The ripple effects could be far reaching. While potentially achieving their aims of improving the aesthetic and increasing scoring levels, the new rules have the scope to reshape the “who” as well as the “how” of the game’s molecular structure.
Expect new faces rotated through the midfield as teams try to maintain the speed of the game in the face of reduced interchange switches. A more open style of play, with the ball theoretically granted cleaner passage from one end to the other, might also see defensive set-ups alter. The now ubiquitous roaming half-back flanker, for example, will surely have greater accountability thrust upon him. Games ruled by stoppages and zone defence might not be over just yet, but this season some players might very well be asked, perhaps for the first time at this level, to defend the man and not just space.
The most fascinating by-product could manifest in the shape of the stoppage specialist, who does his best work in the confines of congested scenarios. What of his capacity to impact, even dominate, if stoppages are on the decline? A bull like Patrick Cripps would play well in a straitjacket, but what might this brave new world mean for lesser types who need stoppages to show their best?
Another change in 2021, and another one to be welcomed, is the likely introduction of a concussion substitute. With the league now awakening to the seriousness of concussion – this season, any player concussed will be stood down for a mandatory 12 days – the ability to replace a player felled by a head knock is a must-do. The AFL might even broaden the concept to cater for a general medical substitute, not one restricted to concussion-related injuries. The scope for exploitation in the coaches’ box exists but there is a push in clubland to restrict subs to the age of 21 or under, thus doing away with the temptation to bring on an experienced player at opportune times.
While some things change, others stay the same. Quarters will revert to their pre-Covid duration and fans will return to venues in Victoria, starting with a cap of 50,000 for Thursday’s season opener. Richmond, seeking a fourth flag in five seasons, are again the team to beat, though Port Adelaide present as the ones most likely to capitalise should the Tigers lack hunger. And, of course, the grand final, played last year at night in Brisbane, will return to its afternoon slot at the MCG. “We want to give footy fans that familiar feeling,” AFL chief executive Gillon McLachlan said last week. It is unclear if McLachlan was referring to all fans or just those based in Victoria.
Follow the 2021 season opener between Richmond and Carlton on Thursday with Guardian Australia’s liveblog. Play at the MCG starts at 7:25pm AEDT
