Because we're unfailingly positive, last week we assessed the best defences, forward lines and midfields in the AFL. This week, for the sake of balance, we have to look at the opposite end of the spectrum. It's not as simple as it might be: if we included Greater Western Sydney, Melbourne, the Western Bulldogs and St Kilda, it would make for a very short argument. So, shielding our eyes from the bottom four, which teams from among the rest have the biggest weaknesses?
Last week we looked at the contenders two by two, but this year there are a few more candidates for each position.
Worst defence
2013 could see two teams beat St Kilda's 1982 record for the most points conceded in a season: having just passed Round 16, Greater Western Sydney are only 96 points short, with Melbourne needing to concede 315. But some teams besides the easybeats have also found themselves unable to sandbag the flood. On points conceded, the Brisbane Lions are sandwiched midway into what should have been the bottom four, while West Coast are the first team outside that Bermuda Pentagon of blighted footballing hope.
Nonetheless, North Melbourne win the dubious prize for their consistent ability to lose games from a winning position. No one at North likes to say the word 'chokers', but it's quite hard to do with a chicken bone in your throat.
North are the highest-scoring side outside the top four, the only such team to top 1,500 points. They're fourth in terms of goals scored, and third in goalkicking accuracy. Yet they sit three places outside the eight, with six wins and nine losses. They have a higher percentage than the next four sides above them. With an almost identical percentage, Richmond have managed five more places on the ladder and nearly twice the wins.
What does all that mean? That the Kangaroos have scored heavily and consistently, enjoyed big leads in almost every game, yet been unable to turn the defensive screws to avoid late losses. Just look at the flustered North defence giving the Eagles' Nic Naitanui a clear run at a contest for a pack-mark hanger and post-siren goal to steal that game. Four times they've lost from more than 30 points up, and five they've been overrun in the final quarter. Their average loss margin of 14.4 is again bettered only by the Cats and the Hawks, with seven losses by fewer than three goals. Staggeringly, the Lions have managed the same win-loss ratio as North with a percentage nearly 36 points lower.
Worst forward line
It's hard to go past the Lions. They have the second-worst accuracy in the comp. They have the fewest assists and fewest inside-50 marks outside the bottom three. They've almost kicked the fewest goals outside the bottom four, just edging Gold Coast by one kick. They're eighth on the behind list, 15th in marks, and 16th in contested marks. (Admittedly Sydney is the lowest-marking side, but presumably they don't bother when they can just drive the ball downfield via a rolling maul.) Jonathan Brown, of course, is an AFL champion, but is in the last stages of his illustrious career. Take out his 26 goals and the pickings get very slim: the next best is midfielder Dayne Zorko with 16. Ash McGrath can dine out on one after-the-siren winner for the rest of his life, but it doesn't presage an All-Australian call-up.
Still, for overall dysfunctionality and disappointment, the winner at this stage of the season is Carlton. Injuries have played their part: Jarrad Waite's seven goals against Essendon showed what the Blues can do with a dominant forward presence, but thanks to his variable health they rarely have one. No one has stood up to take his place. Levi Casboult has contributed four goals this season, Shaun Hampson three, Matthew Kreuzer seven, Sam Rowe eight. All average fewer than five marks a game. Only small forward Jeff Garlett has delivered, topping the club's goalkicking with 32. You have to go to 40th spot on the league list to find the second Carlton player.
If even two of Carlton's talls could develop into dominant key position targets, with the mosquito fleet buzzing around their heels, the Blues still have the potential for an outstanding forward line. But this year, Eddie Betts has missed games and contributed only 12 goals, while Chris Yarran has kicked 17 in an indifferent season that saw him dropped for sulking. Carlton have been trading on potential for a long time now.
Worst midfield
It must be said that among the teams under consideration, it's hard to find a really poor midfield. Recent strugglers like Port Adelaide or even the expansion sides are building groups that will be impressive in years to come. Turning to objective statistical analysis, then, it's a surprise to find that West Coast could be considered a contender. Team-wide, they're ranked 15th in the competition for overall disposals, and 17th for disposal efficiency. Port also rank low in efficiency and in centre clearances, but have matched Geelong in having eight players among the league's 100 top possession winners.
A closer look at West Coast finds that while former stars Andrew Embley and Daniel Kerr are no longer contributing to their high previous standards, the Eagles' blue-chip midfield quartet is now Chris Masten, Matt Priddis, Scott Selwood and Luke Shuey. Between them they average 25.52 disposals each per game, with 23 goals.
So after two close escapes so far, this category has to go to the Brisbane Lions. Tom Rockliff, Jack Redden, Pearce Hanley and Brent Moloney will form a fearsome midfield in time – you need only look at the fact that Redden leads the league in tackles – but it's not quite yet. Collectively the key four average only 22 disposals apiece. Down the team list from there, the numbers drop off appreciably. Brisbane rank 13th in clearances, 14th in contested possessions, 10th in disposal efficiency, and top only GWS and Melbourne in total possessions this season. Their top possession winner, Rockliff, comes in 39th in the league, Redden at 57th. Given some of the quality we've seen from these players though, their day will come.
