So far we’ve seen predictability, upsets, sellouts, a Jim Stynes tribute, ticketing debacles, unofficial secret plots and intriguing goal celebrations – which has left us with the best four teams of 2018.
One team is on a mission to claim back-to-back flags for the third time in its history, another is trying to break a 54-year premiership drought, one team we thought was rebuilding, and another team is one that had more questions about them than answers when the season began.
It’s worth noting too, that the final four are the AFL’s most prolific scoring teams in 2018 which should thrill even the nonpartisan supporter. What more could you ask for?
By now coaching staff and players have observed their opponents’ footage, analysed targets to shutdown and areas to exploit over the weekend. Some teams have gaps they need to plug and other teams are coming in hot.
All four teams have had varying paths to the preliminary final and injuries to consider: the Pies have Lynden Dunn, Jamie Elliot, Darcy Moore and Matt Scharenberg out; the Demons will be without Jesse Hogan and Jake Lever; the Eagles are minus Andrew Gaff, Eric Mackenzie, Nic Naitanui and Brad Sheppard; and the Tigers will be without Jacob Townsend.
Here’s what we can expect from our four remaining finals teams.
Richmond vs Collingwood
After the Hawks’ loss to the Tigers in week one of the finals, Alastair Clarkson told reporters that they had lost to a team that had a system that couldn’t be broken. The Tigers went 18-4 this season and the foundation they laid from 2017 looks bolstered, with even more layers added.
They value pressure acts over highlight reels. They lock the ball in their forward half. They sweat on mistakes. They kick junky goals. But their mantra is highly effective. Interestingly, the Pies play a similar style, where they like to lock the ball in their forward half, then pounce on opportunistic goals. The burning question: do the Pies have enough depth to go toe-to-toe with the champs?
The Tigers go into Friday’s match heavy favourites and are 12-2 from their past 14 games. Not to mention they have defeated the Pies twice this season. The Pies are 4-3 from their last seven outings and are 1-4 against the remaining finals teams.
Their last final was in 2013 when they lost to the Power by four goals, and the last four seasons have resulted in middling results of 11, 10, 9 and 9 wins respectively.
For a team that looked like a borderline finalist at the start of 2018, the Pies have been able to improve, paper over the cracks, and discover new talent while still missing key personnel. That makes them efficient and a team full of character; one of football’s intangibles.
It would be easy to say that the Tigers will walk this final in, but what the Pies have shown this season is that they’ve produced good football against good teams. They beat the Crows in Adelaide early in the season by 48 points; they beat the Demons by 42; and their semi-final win against the Giants by 10 points was their best effort yet, under physical, Tigers-like pressure. Some will argue that it was the best preparation heading into this Friday’s clash in front of a sellout crowd.
The Pies have players that stack up against the premiers in Grundy, Pendlebury and De Goey. But who stops Dustin Martin? Martin has kicked 31 goals, gained 132 inside 50s and 76 centre clearances this year. The Brownlow Medallist has the knack of stepping up and tearing the game to shreds in 15 minutes patches of pure carnage. It’s what great players do. If the Pies can mitigate and smother Martin, they will be sure to keep the match within arm’s reach.
West Coast vs Melbourne
After 12 years of not being able to win a final, the Demons conjured up a revenge win against the Cats in their elimination clash thanks to a steely, pack effort. It was genuinely remarkable. They then delivered an arguably even better performance against the Hawks in the semi.
But the Demons will have to continue to harness their pressure acts and repeat entries inside 50 for four quarters, to take down the Eagles in Perth.
Their recent Perth record suggests they can do it – the Demons have won their last two outings – although the Eagles own a 4-2 record in the last six matches between the sides, with an average winning margin of 60 points since 2011.
But perhaps the Demons will replicate what they learned during Round 22 when they dismantled the Eagles on home soil by 17 points. This time though, they’ll have to do it against Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling who both missed that game.
The Eagles rely on a strong contested marking game that gives their midfield the freedom to run, provide overlap and carry. The likes of Yeo and Shuey come to mind.
For the Eagles, it’s critical they get the ball in long, quick and high to their twin towers in Kennedy and Darling. It’s a recipe that has won them a lot of games this season and it’s something Demon’s coach Simon Goodwin will be looking to shut down in the midfield; the thinking will be, if there’s a short supply to Kennedy and Darling then the Eagles will struggle to kick a winning score. Easy in theory.
As good as the Demons have been for the past six weeks, the Eagles will nevertheless start favourite. This is a team that claimed 16 scalps this year. They are 10-3 at Optus Stadium and 3-1 against the remaining finals teams. And consider this: the Eagles are 11-0 with Kennedy and Darling in the team.
The last three contests in Perth have been decided by 17, 3 and 6, so expect another tight, gritty confrontation that will be decided by a two or three-goal burst.
The Eagles are kings of the contested marks, while the Demons get good numbers across tackles, centre clearances and inside 50s. The Demons showed against the Hawks that if the likes of Gawn, Oliver and Viney get on a roll in the middle, they can score quickly which can be lethal and match-winning.
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