Will West Coast’s supreme defence triumph over Hawthorn’s forward potency?
The harder you stare at stats sheets, qualifying final replays and press conference quotes in the lead-up to this AFL grand final, the easier it is to submit yourself to the Dennis Denuto approach to tipping; it’s all about “the vibe”. Hawthorn plainly have it. The Hawks have that been-there-done-that swagger. They have an aura, a winning way of thinking and an innate self-belief. It never really seems to matter what’s happened in the lead-up to games like this. Winning grand finals is what they do for a living.
But… that loss to the Eagles three weeks ago also just nags at you a little. West Coast was the best defensive side in the competition this year and they proved it when these sides last met, blanketing the Hawks and shutting them out of the game. Watching Shannon Hurn, Jeremy McGovern, Sharrod Wellingham, Will Schofield and Brad Sheppard combine so well this year it wouldn’t be a stretch to picture them as a Premiership-winning quartet of backmen.
Even West Coast’s forward defend well, tackling tirelessly and trapping the ball inside their attacking 50 for extended, momentum–sapping periods of time. Three weeks back it was that and effective zoning that allowed the Eagles to cut off Hawthorn’s usual supply of uncontested possession. They couldn’t find a way in. The Hawks were put on mute. The question now is whether this group of Eagles players can replicate that feat again on the wider expanses of the MCG and under the drastically increased pressure of a decider.
Josh Kennedy could become a legend of West Coast Eagles football
An overstatement? Perhaps, but consider the devastating impact Kennedy’s had this season in even brief periods where he’s been able to shake his man. In the Elimination Final his spell made Brian Lake age at least another year or two before our eyes. Lake simply couldn’t go with him and Hawthorn wouldn’t admit it but Kennedy poses a huge strategic dilemma for them, possibly the biggest of all. They’re now highly unlikely to start with Lake, who has done his job superbly in the last two deciders but looms like a liability here, so will probably bank on James Frawley, who has had more than a few shaky moments himself in this campaign.
Herein lays the problem. When Lake arrived at Hawthorn he had a decent resume of big-game experience gleaned in a few legitimate Premiership runs that the Bulldogs made in his time there. But Frawley has no such experience to draw upon and at times this September it has shown. At least the Hawks have a Plan B if either of them is taken to the cleaners, because Ryan Schoenmakers keeps his spot for the desperately unlucky Billy Hartung. If they don’t get it right, the knock-on effects from Kennedy’s dominance has the potential to completely alter the course of the game. What a daunting task in Frawley’s first grand final. Big Game James?
The Eagles aren’t a one-man band though, of course. Kennedy has the potential to do a lot of damage himself but he also provides goals for others - directly and indirectly – by drawing away the best defender and occasionally a double-team, bringing Mark LeCras, Jack Darling and Josh Hill into play. Add in highly capable ruckman Callum Sinclair, who’ll rotate through the forward line, and the Hawks defence has plenty to worry about on top of the imposing Kennedy.
Hawthorn – will experience tell, or has time caught up with them?
The most obvious parallel to be drawn with this Hawthorn side is the last team to pull off a three-peat, Leigh Matthews’ Lions side of the early 2000s and there is indeed something very ‘Brisbane 2003’ about this Hawthorn side; like all of those Lions teams they didn’t go close to claiming the minor premiership (another reminder: Alastair Clarkson – the best coach of this generation – has still not won the ‘coach of the year’ award) and have had to nurse a number of key players through injuries in the closing stages of the season.
On the other hand, Eagles backers might fancy the Hawks as something closer to the 2004 Lions; a football team running on fumes and playing from memory. Lake was never particularly quick but has slowed to a canter, Luke Hodge and Jodran Lewis have taken a decade-long battering and forward Jack Gunston has literally been limping around in recent weeks. Lewis struggled badly in week one against the Eagles and the mobility and athleticism of Naitanui and Sinclair is going to be a real concern for lumbering duo Ben McEvoy and David Hale, neither of whom has set the world on fire this September.
The risk on the latter point is that we’re just jumping at shadows and trying to find fault with a well-oiled machine, and what a glorious last hurrah this could prove to be for a number of veteran Hawks.
The Hawks actually have room for improvement
If all this ‘Hawks are past it’ talk is a little premature, it is worth noting that this side has gradually improved since the West Coast loss, first hammering Adelaide around the MCG and then strangling the Dockers at Domain Stadium. Indicative of that toggling through the gears is the improved form of players like Taylor Duryea, who has gone from bit-part sub to reliable contributor and Luke Breust, who recovered well from a slow start to his campaign.
Super-reliable contributors are the bedrock of Hawthorn’s success, of course, and one of the reasons that it’s so hard to write them off in this game is that they’ve got that sort of player in nearly every position on the ground. Sam Mitchell’s had 35, 33 and 35 possessions respectively to dominate the middle in the three preceding games, Jarryd Roughead’s should get “20 and 2” tattooed on his left foot and the collective equilibrium of players like Hodge, Gibson, Burgoyne, Hill, Shiels, Birchall and Rioli is rarely disturbed.
Scan Hawthorn’s team sheet today and one thing that really strikes you is the almost total absence of players who shape as a grand final vulnerability. Hawthorn just don’t do passengers, evidenced by the harsh call on a contributor as solid as Billy Hartung. Not so the Eagles, who are plainly sitting at a different stage in their development cycle and perhaps harbour a few question marks. Hawthorn know this and they won’t take a backward step, so expect any or all of Josh Hill, Dom Sheed, Luke Shuey, Xavier Ellis, Chris Masten and Andrew Gaff to come in for an intense physical examination.
The craptacular Grand Final entertainment
Finally, to the most important part of the whole shebang: the pre-game entertainment. It’s probably best to start with the bad news. Despite a spirited grass-roots campaign to reunite Angry Anderson and Rob de Castella and have them reprise the entertainment show from the last West Coast-Hawthorn grand final, the Batmobile and ill-fitting leather jacket will sadly remain in hibernation. The good news? Actually, there really isn’t any. In Angry’s place we’re faced with the most insipid line-up since Darryl Somers stole Don Johnson’s ivory suit and hijacked the PA.
It all kicks off with Canuck rocker Brian Adams, who was described by the league as the “key plank” of the extravaganza, a statement that could also serve as a critique of his back catalogue. Still, hopes remain high that Adams will perform Summer of ‘69, his famous ode to a shirtless Alex Jesaulenko slogging his way through pre-season training at Princes Park. He’ll be joined by cheesy crooner Chris Isaak, who has taken Leo Sayer’s lead and realised that there is no more forgiving market for fading entertainers than Australia. Then rounding things out is English singer Ellie Goulding, who “caters for a different market”, which is to say that her last hit single is less likely to be followed by a double-shot of Gang Gajang on Gold 104.
Personally we’d like to see Isaak punish Billy Brownless for last week’s crimes against decency by recreating the infamous, sultry video for Wicked Game, forcing the former Geelong spearhead to strip down to his Reg Grundies and roll around in a portable sandpit. Actually scrap that, he’s probably already done it in one of the Footy Show grand final revues. Can somebody spare a ticket for Peter Hore?
