138 reasons to switch off Friday night footy
Just when you thought it was safe to return to Friday night footy, Carlton turned in another trademark stinker. The Blues suffered their largest defeat in their history as they capitulated by 138 points at the hands of the Hawks, who never seemed to get out of second gear. If you’re keeping count, Carlton has now played six Friday night matches this season for zero wins and a combined losing total of 449 points (an average of 74 per game).
By contrast, exciting young teams like the Western Bulldogs and GWS didn’t receive a single Friday night slot this season, and perennial finalists Sydney and Fremantle were given four between them. Only a one-eyed brown and gold fanatic could have possibly enjoyed this game, and even they were cared more about the reigning premiers escaping unscathed. The TV ratings will be interesting and clearly, given the paltry crowd of just 26,815 in attendance (almost 20,000 fewer than the lowest crowd between the two teams at the same venue), fans also voted with their feet.
Of course, when the fixture is drawn, it’s impossible to predict the following season’s bolters and sliders. We didn’t foresee the rise of the Eagles and Bulldogs this year, nor Essendon’s nosedive. But the experts got it right with Carlton. They finished 13th last year and nobody thought they’d be any chop this year. This isn’t a Port Adelaide situation, where a young glamour side was given blockbusters in the thought they’d challenge for the flag. Carlton was poor last year and is even worse last year. It’s an affront to 17 other clubs that they’ve been awarded so many primetime timeslots this year, and the only saving grace is that the Blues should receive plenty of twilight games (aka “the timeslot of irrelevance”) next season.
It wasn’t all bad news for Carlton on Friday, though. By scoring four goals for the match, they at least equaled the efforts of Real Madrid across town.
Geelong must do everything it can to retain Motlop
There’s been a fair bit of conjecture about the future of Steven Motlop lately. The out-of-contract Cats speedster is saying the right things publicly about wanting to re-commit, but persistent rumors have him a chance to leave, particularly if Geelong lands Patrick Dangerfield. The Cats’ 27-point win over the Giants on Saturday afternoon – their second consecutive win over a team ahead of them on the ladder – demonstrated just why they can’t afford to lose him.
A week after he was praised by Chris Scott for his career-high 11-tackle effort in the win over the Dogs, Motlop showed the Giants a clean pair of heels all day. His class, poise and ability to consistently break the lines made him a clear best on ground, as he finished with a game-high 31 touches, five inside-50s and two goals. But Motlop’s stats alone don’t tell the influence he had. In what was a scrappy contest, in part due to the blustery conditions, his first instinct was always positive. Where players for both teams looked to play it safe and chip the ball backwards, Motlop would instead try to take on an opponent, run the ball through the corridor or try an ambitious pass like Stevie J at his best.
The Cats have some speed in the wings – like Jordan Murdoch who is enjoying a breakout season and young Nakia Cockatoo honing his craft in the VFL – but Motlop’s bag of tricks make him an irreplaceable piece of the puzzle. It will be a huge coup if Dangerfield is in blue and white hoops in 2016, but if the net result means losing Motlop, the Cats’ off-season will go from overwhelmingly positive to a mere win.
Richmond’s minute of madness
Richmond did so much right on Saturday. The Tigers matched Fremantle for intensity, beat them for inside-50s and scoring shots and looked far more dangerous in space. Save for some poor conversion – including a remarkable six posters – the Tigers should have been comfortably ahead deep in time-on. But they weren’t, so everybody in yellow and black breathed a sigh of relief when Tom Sheridan missed a set shot that would have put the Dockers in front with less than 90 seconds to play.
The Tigers were two points up and had the ball at the kick-in. In situations like these, finals-hardened teams know what to do. Look for a loose team-mate, deliver a short pass, milk some time from the clock, kick backwards, fake cramp if you have to. If all your team-mates are manned up, kick long to the boundary line and try to force a stoppage, every single time.
That poise under pressure is, right now, virtually the only thing that separates Richmond from the very best. Instead of kicking short to the pocket, Bachar Houli played on immediately from the kick in, as if it was the Tigers that desperately needed to score rather than retain possession. He belted the ball 55m down the middle to Kane Lambert against three opponents, allowing Garrick Ibbotson to take an intercept mark. Richmond’s defenders were out of position, and Ibbotson was able to easily find David Mundy who kicked the winning goal from 50m in the dying seconds.
In the light of day, the Tigers would have realised that they’re just minor tweaks away from being able to match anyone in September. The good news? They get another crack at a top team on Friday when they meet the Hawks. If it’s close in the last five minutes, it will be enthralling to see how the Tigers respond.
The battle for the eight will go down to the wire
It’s difficult to recall a season where so many teams are still in the hunt for finals spots this late in the season. If you assume that only the top four – Fremantle, Hawthorn, Sydney and West Coast – are September certainties, it means everyone from Richmond in fifth down to Port Adelaide in 12th are still alive for just three remaining spots.
Over the weekend, Adelaide, North Melbourne and Port Adelaide won games they should have, Richmond stole defeat from the jaws of victory while the Western Bulldogs and Geelong secured valuable premiership points and dented the hopes of Collingwood and GWS in the process.
So, who’ll make it? The best guesswork at the moment comes from looking at the remaining games, and realising how many mouthwatering clashes there are to come. The Bulldogs and Giants have the easiest runs home, with just two games each against teams above them. North Melbourne, Adelaide, Collingwood and Geelong have three each and Port Adelaide’s hopes appear to be purely mathematical at this point with four including both the Bulldogs and Hawks away.
Fifth-placed Richmond is currently a game and percentage ahead of the ninth-placed Giants but their run home poses a few challenges – just the Hawks out of teams above them, but also the Crows (away), Magpies and Kangaroos.
If you break it down even further, there are a number of proverbial eight-point games between these mid-table teams still to come. The Crows and Tigers clash in round 19 and the Giants travel to meet the Power in round 20. Collingwood and Richmond have match-of-the-round status in round 21, and the following round both the Bulldogs and Kangaroos and the Magpies and Cats meet. Fast-forward to the final round and Geelong and Adelaide meet for the first time for the year at Simonds Stadium, following the cancellation of their round 14 clash.
Many of these games will end team’s hopes, and you’d be game to try to predict how it will pan out. At least thing is certain – the list of teams booking their star players in for early surgery will be shorter than usual this year.
The Eagles have the perfect list profile
West Coast’s meteoric rise from also-rans to bona fide premiership contenders has surprised many this season, but there’s reason to argue that the competition shouldn’t have been caught off-guard. After playing deep into finals in 2011 and 2012, the Eagles spent two years in the comparative wilderness and loaded up on some quality draft picks.
The Eagles, which now needs disaster to strike to miss the double chance after a commanding 52-point win over Sydney on Sunday evening, now have a mature list with years of good football left in it.
While Hawthorn, Fremantle and Sydney count their veterans among their best, West Coast doesn’t have a single player over 30 on its list. It boasts 24 players in the career ‘sweet spot’ between 50 and 200 games, and none on 200-plus (by comparison, the Hawks, Dockers and Swans have a collective 19).
Perhaps to compensate for their injury-hit backline, the Eagles have played exhilarating run-and-gun football all season. Across the park it seems to have all bases covered: a dominant ruckman, a midfield that bats deep, great rebound from the backline and a forward line with an enviable mix of talls and smalls.
Throw in career-best years by the likes of Andrew Gaff, Jamie Cripps and Elliott Yeo, the return to fitness and form of Nic Naitanui and the emergence of Jeremy McGovern (whose absence against the Swans was offset by the loss of Buddy Franklin and Kurt Tippett), and West Coast’s current top two spot is its to lose.
The Eagles may not win the flag this year, but its list profile means it will be primed to challenge for seasons to come.
