The race for the AFL finals went down to the wire with early pacesetters limping to the line and other sides flying home, before Gold Coast booked the last spot for this year and their first in club history with a win in the game that finished the home-and-away season.
An evenly matched finals series is now on the cards; only three wins separate minor premiers Adelaide from Hawthorn in eighth place – just the second time the gap has been so narrow since the top eight was introduced 31 years ago.
A weekend off has given each of the finalists time to work on their strengths and weaknesses, and us time to assess why each finalist can – and can’t – win the 2025 AFL premiership.
Adelaide
Can win the premiership
Adelaide are the form side of the competition after nine straight victories lifted them into top spot as they aim to become the fourth minor premiers in five years to also win the flag. They have got the balance right between attack and defence as the third highest scoring team in the competition and the second most miserly at the back. The Crows have turned Adelaide Oval into a fortress while winning 12 of 13 games on their home deck this year with two finals still to come at the venue.
Can’t win the premiership
Adelaide begin their first finals campaign since 2017 without one of their top players – and certainly their most dynamic – after Izak Rankine was banned for four matches for directing a homophobic slur at a Collingwood player. Rankine still has three games to serve from his suspension and needs the Crows to lose their qualifying final against the same side to have any chance of returning in the grand final. After the longest period without a top-eight finish in club history, the Crows had only seven players with finals experience in their most recent match.
Geelong
Can win the premiership
Geelong continue to regenerate on the run but as finalists in 13 of their 15 seasons under coach Chris Scott the Cats have also been able to build experience at the business end. They are the highest scoring team heading into the finals with Coleman medallist Jeremy Cameron in rare form and sharpshooter Shannon Neale blossoming in attack, as Tyson Stengle and Shaun Mannagh lock the ball near goal. Bailey Smith and Max Holmes are a tireless duo in the midfield, Mark O’Connor and Oisin Mullin clamp down on the opposition, and the Cats can count on selection pressure with only one injured player on their list.
Can’t win the premiership
Geelong need to shift out of third gear and straight into finals mode after a charmed run home that included six straight games against sides already out of top-eight contention. The Cats brushed aside each of those lesser lights, and accounted for most of their fellow finalists throughout the year, though they continue to be troubled by their qualifying final opponents Brisbane as well as GWS. That pair beat the Cats twice this season, including at their GMHBA Stadium fortress, while the Lions have won four of their past five meetings, and the Giants seven of their past nine.
Brisbane
Can win the premiership
The Lions have overcome the toughest of fixtures to finish in the top four for the fifth time in seven seasons as they seek to defend their crown. Brisbane are one victory from hosting a preliminary final and have a formidable record against Geelong, with four wins in their past five clashes. All-Australians Hugh McCluggage and Zac Bailey are finally getting the recognition they deserve, Josh Dunkley adds balance to the onball brigade, while the Lions set the standard for controlling games with clean disposal and making opponents pay for their turnovers.
Can’t win the premiership
Brisbane have blown hot and cold at times this season and there is no guarantee that they will be able to simply flick a switch as the finals heat rises. The inconsistent form has in part been due to a steady stream of injuries throughout the year with key forward Eric Hipwood still unavailable and dual Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale set to begin the finals series underdone after a stint on the sidelines. Hipwood might not dominate the forward half but his absence leaves 20-year-old Logan Morris shouldering much of the load starting against Geelong’s settled defence.
Collingwood
Can win the premiership
The Magpies showed during a dominant 14-2 start to the season that they have the personnel and gameplan to trouble any side. They might have taken their foot off the pedal after a finals spot was all but secured but with a week off to refresh and reset the oldest side in history should be ready to pick up the pace once again while turning to a wealth of experience. The Pies have the most miserly defence and lead the competition for tackles as their pressure and intensity lay the foundation for a style and system ideally suited to finals.
Can’t win the premiership
The Magpies have fallen away to lose five of their past seven matches as injuries to key personnel take their toll and the long season perhaps catches up with ageing legs. The loss of Jeremy Howe to a groin injury for at least the first two weeks of finals looms as critical as the veteran defender’s intercept marking is integral to the way that the Pies play and was notable by its absence during a stuttering run home. The Collingwood outfit that won a premiership with three finals victories by a combined 12 points two years ago are no longer the masters of the tight finish after going 2-4 in games decided by a goal this season.
GWS Giants
Can win the premiership
The Giants have had strong second halves to the season in each of their three years under coach Adam Kingsley and this time clinched nine wins from their last 10 games heading into finals. They also have an ominous home record with seven wins from eight matches at Engie Stadium, where they begin their finals campaign in a do-or-die clash with Hawthorn. The Giants are the benchmark for turning defence into attack with Lachie Whitfield and Lachie Ash the keys to their slick ball movement, while the forward group led by captain Toby Greene has enough firepower to worry any other side.
Can’t win the premiership
The Giants have been missing key personnel on the run home and will have to hope any or all of the underdone Jesse Hogan, Jake Stringer, Josh Kelly, Brent Daniels and Jack Buckley can perform first up if made available to face the Hawks. The onball brigade can rely too much on Tom Green at stoppages and they rank third last for clearance differential this year. But the biggest concern is the weight of history after the Giants threw away huge leads in both of their finals last year to be bundled out in straight sets.
Fremantle
Can win the premiership
The Dockers have surged into their second finals campaign in 10 seasons off the back of 12 wins in their past 14 matches, which included beating the Suns on their elimination final opponent’s home deck. They have also beaten Collingwood and GWS Giants on the road which could build hope for a deep run after hosting Gold Coast. Luke Jackson is a unique weapon made for finals while Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong are the centrepieces of a strong midfield that can call on the experience of Nat Fyfe and has the extra motivation of sending off the retiring Dockers great in style.
Can’t win the premiership
The Dockers can find scoring difficult at times and amassed the lowest points total of all the finalists while having only the seventh tightest defence. The midfield can lack the explosiveness of the leading contenders, which leaves the Dockers relying on Hayden Young – less than ideal as his body has too rarely allowed him to put together a solid stretch of games this year. The Dockers have a nice spread of forward targets but would want more from prized recruit Shai Bolton especially with his experience of playing at the pointy end.
Gold Coast
Can win the premiership
The Suns have been breaking hoodoos over their two years under coach Damien Hardwick but smashing the biggest of them all and reaching finals for the first time leaves them with a free hit from here. Captain Noah Anderson and onball beast Matt Rowell are the key cogs in the engine room that drives much of the Suns’ success as the best of the remaining teams for clearance differential. Dashing defenders Daniel Rioli and John Noble have changed the way that the Suns play out of the back half since their arrival last year, and add finals experience to a side and club embarking on a new journey.
Can’t win the premiership
Gold Coast were within touching distance of clinching a club-first finals berth with three games to play but took until the last match of the season to book their spot as pressure mounted. The inexperience of lining up in games where more than just four points are on the line could count against the Suns especially as they only had three players in their side last week who have previously played finals. Gold Coast lost six of 10 matches against the eventual finalists including a defeat to elimination final opponents Fremantle, who they have never beaten at Optus Stadium.
Hawthorn
Can win the premiership
The Hawks have a nice balance between attack and defence as the sixth-best of the finalists for points scored and third-best for points conceded. The unusual forward line set up with four talls can unsettle opponents and has the Hawks as the second-best of the remaining sides for marks inside 50. The defence has started humming at the right time of year as captain James Sicily returns to form and fitness, while Josh Battle and Tom Barrass make their mark as a pair of prized recruits.
Can’t win the premiership
The Hawks return to finals for the second year in a row with a worrying record against the rest of the top eight with only three wins from 10 matches. That includes an early win against GWS in Tasmania though their elimination final opponent is likely to be a different prospect at a venue the Hawks have not won at in eight attempts. Hawthorn have done well to overcome a season-ending injury to arguably their best player in Will Day but will hope versatile defender Josh Weddle can bounce back from his own stint on the sidelines in time to face the Giants or to return deeper into finals.
