The time is now for Collingwood as they again cross paths with Brisbane at the pointy end of the season, just two years after the powerhouse clubs played out an all-time classic grand final. The past two AFL premiers meet a week earlier this time with a spot in the 2025 decider on the line.
The Magpies are all in on a premiership this year as they back a cast of high-performing veterans who have helped lift them to preliminary final week in three of their four seasons under coach Craig McRae. The Pies built up a strong record against the Lions since breaking their hearts to clinch the 2023 flag with three more victories, including a comprehensive 52-point win in round six this year. Brisbane finally turned the tables on Collingwood when they pulled away to a 27-point triumph during the run home to make a pre-finals statement at the MCG.
The Lions are back on familiar ground while playing in a seventh consecutive finals series with this their fifth preliminary final during that stretch. The first two trips to the penultimate week ended in defeat but the battle-hardened Brisbane are now aiming to become the first side to reach three straight grand finals since Hawthorn completed their premiership three-peat a decade ago.
Where the game will be won – and lost
Collingwood were on shaky ground heading into the finals series with five defeats in their last seven matches on the run home, including a loss to Brisbane. But their spread of experienced and evergreen talent benefited from the pre-finals bye as much as any side and they outclassed and outsmarted Adelaide once the stakes rose. While the Magpies had winners all over the field in the qualifying final, it was the defence that led the way as the No 1 team for points against this year tightened the screws against the minor premiers. The Pies will hope to further strengthen their backline with the injured Jeremy Howe nearing a return in time to face the Lions.
The Magpies are the top-ranked side for tackles with an average 65.3 as well as tackle differential (+13.2), and second-highest for tackles inside 50 at 12.7 a game. For some teams the high number of tackles might be a pointer to the opposition having their hands on the ball more often, but for the Pies it is a reminder that their miserly defence begins with a combativeness at the contest and being the best team in the competition for pressure all over the field. Even with a side packed with players aged on the high side of 30, the Magpies are likely to hit the ground fresh and full of running in what will be just their second game in 29 days.
Brisbane will have to take the long route to reach the grand final but showed last year that they can overcome that hurdle with four straight finals victories on the way to premiership glory. A return to the MCG should hold few fears for the Lions who won five in a row at the venue before a surprisingly lacklustre display in the qualifying final defeat to Geelong. The reigning premiers bounced back the following week – as they have so often done after a defeat this year – to thump bitter rivals Gold Coast with a reminder of how freely they can score when their midfield and forward line click.
The Lions will miss the injured Lachie Neale for a second week in a row but showed in the resounding win over the Suns that they have enough depth to still compete with – and even overpower – the strongest onball brigades. The reigning premiers are the best of the remaining four teams for clearances with an average of 40.4 a game, as well as for clearance differential (+4.7), and built their victory at the coalface with 51-34 clearances the last time they took on the Magpies.
Game shapers
Collingwood: Steele Sidebottom – the Magpies veteran was considering retirement at times last year but again looks to have plenty left in his legs as he lines up for a 28th final and ninth preliminary final. The 34-year-old has booted 15 goals and averaged 21.4 disposals this year but it is Sidebottom’s ability to make an impact when the game is on the line that continues to set him apart. The versatile midfielder broke the game open when booting three of the Pies’ five goals as they snatched back the lead from the Crows and then powered away either side of the main break in a burst that set up their qualifying final win. Sidebottom might not have the pace that he once did but the player who booted the Magpies’ last goal in the 2023 grand final victory over the Lions has more than enough class and composure to remain a match-turning threat.
Brisbane: Cam Rayner – the Lions dynamo has become a September specialist as he rises to the occasion in finals whether settling forward or mixing in bursts in the midfield. Rayner came under fire for the way he went to ground easily to earn a pair of contentious free kicks during the qualifying loss to Geelong but responded in the best possible way against Gold Coast with his brute force on full display. The 25-year-old shrugged off eight Suns tackles during the semi-final including stepping out of one before launching a long bomb to goal from barely in front of the centre circle. When Rayner plays well, the Lions tend to win, making the prospect of a match-up with rugged Pies defender Brayden Maynard likely to be pivotal to the result – and mouth-watering for fans.
Early prediction
Collingwood need no reminder of the threat that Brisbane pose when they are at their best but can turn to refreshed veterans to edge the reigning premiers in another finals classic.
