Geelong
Look, this has gone on so long now that we not only can’t predict a Geelong slide anymore, but we can’t even open previews with jokes about not predicting one. The Cats have made footy meta. Last season they cruised into the top four but were punted from the finals with ease. How to get their gauge? There are plenty on their list who need development, but in the right week they can still put 11 premiership players on the park. Nearly half those players line up in defence: Corey Enright, Tom Lonergan, James Kelly, Harry Taylor and Andrew Mackie. Add Jared Rivers and the Cats are fully loaded for experience, if short of pace. Father-son pick Jed Bews will continue his apprenticeship, while Jake Kolodjashnij should debut as a half-back flanker.
The Cats’ main concern is through midfield. Last season captain Joel Selwood carried a side smashed in contested possessions. He needs Mitch Duncan, Cam Guthrie, Josh Caddy and George Horlin-Smith to raise their level and become Geelong’s core. That way veterans Jimmy Bartel, Steve Johnson and Mathew Stokes can be glorious icing rather than the entire cake. The sprinkles are Steven Motlop, a magician around goal but whose creativity through the middle sparks many an attacking move. And the exploding firework candle might yet be exciting new draft pick Nakia Cockatoo.
Tom Hawkins is in his prime up forward with the highly rated Shane Kersten a good second tall alongside, while few dare hope that crumber Daniel Menzel might return after what seems like a dozen knee reconstructions. Geelong are heavy on unproven ruck-forwards: to the improving Mark Blicavs, massive Dawson Simpson and fragile Nathan Vardy, the Cats have added a weird mix of returning retiree Mitch Clark, former Saint Rhys Stanley and Irish reality TV cast-off Padraig Lucey.
Wherever they come from, Chris Scott needs to get his players back to the kind of commitment that marked the premiership era: playing hard to win the ball, then letting their attacking game flow from there. Get that right, and the Cats still have the quality to test the top of the table. (GL)
Richmond
The Tigers appeared to be right on the cusp two years back. After dominating Carlton in the first half of the 2013 elimination final, they crumpled into a heap and lost in scenes that felt a cruel and capricious blow by the footballing gods. Even through that heartache, it became hard not to think of them as a side on a steep upward trajectory. Then came an even bigger crash in the first half of 2014 before a miracle nine-game winning streak to scrape into the finals but what, if anything, has actually improved since then?
It’s easy to sell yourself the idea of the Tigers. Alex Rance, Ivan Maric and Jack Riewoldt form a solid spine and there are far less impressive midfield groups than Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin and Brett Deledio. The dependability in the rest of the line-up is a lot harder to pinpoint. Does the surge this year come from improvements from Brandon Ellis? Ben Griffiths? Shaun Grigg? Tyrone Vickery? OK, stop laughing down the back. Anthony Miles was a firestarter in the Tigers’ nine-game streak last year, Dylan Grimes is fit and Nick Vlastuin looks a gem. Mature-bodied Sam Lloyd knows how to kick a goal and has “fan favourite” written all over him, while Taylor Hunt will add pace and versatility without setting the world on fire.
Their draw bears scrutiny. Putting aside their round three assignment against Brisbane at the Gabba, the Tigers play four of their first five at the MCG. Three of those games are against beatable sides in Carlton, the Bulldogs and Melbourne. Momentum for the season can be built there. They’ll only face contenders Hawthorn, Sydney, Port Adelaide and Geelong once each but from round 17, they face Fremantle, Hawthorn, Adelaide (away), Gold Coast, Collingwood and North Melbourne in what may prove a far tougher assignment than their miracle run home last year.
The Tigers will probably remain a must-watch side this year. They’re genuinely interesting during the week too; a coach who often says the first thing that pops into his head and a few prominent players who follow that lead, bless them. It’s just hard to convince yourself that this side could actually cause much damage in September. (RJ)
Adelaide Crows
It’s hard to get a gauge on Adelaide. Remember 2012, when the plucky young Crows fell agonisingly short of a grand final berth in a preliminary final thriller against Hawthorn? Having failed to make the finals since, two years of underachievement cost coach Brenton Sanderson his job last September. But even in their poor years, they’ve tantalised. Last year the Crows beat no-longer-little-brother Port Adelaide and the ‘Pies at the ‘G, in a finals-like cauldron. At the same time, they drop home games against the hapless Dees.
The Crows frustrate because their top-end talent compares favorably with any other team. Patrick Dangerfield, Rory Sloane, Daniel Talia, Sam Jacobs, Eddie Betts and new captain Tex Walker – who should be back to his best almost two years after tearing his ACL – are all among the best handful of players in the league in their positions. Add in another pre-season to emerging midfielder Brad Crouch and the raw talent of Charlie Cameron and it’s a better than average list.
Adelaide’s 2015 fortunes lie largely with new coach Phil Walsh, an intense man who’s promised a harder edge and consistency to what had become a decidedly flaky team. Only two years ago, Ken Hinkley turned the crosstown rival Power from a basket case to a contender overnight – but hey, no pressure, Phil. The Crows might lack a second quality key defender; Jarrad Waite and Mitch Clark scored heavily against their inexperienced backline during the NAB Challenge. And questions remain as to whether the enigmatic Josh Jenkins or ageing James Podsiadly can provide enough support to Walker when the heat is on.
But Adelaide still boast talent all over the park and frankly, another September without finals may just convince the out-of-contract Dangerfield that his fortunes lie back at home in Victoria. Now there’s a headline that will keep the new coach awake at night. (KK)
Essendon
Oh, sweet relief. After seasons spent under the shadow of the club’s dubious supplements program and Asada’s anti-doping investigation, all Essendon players under the microscope were found not guilty in a decision handed down on Tuesday. The question is, what will the toll be? Getting cleared two days before the season is better than during it, but the investigation has compromised player preparation, with a skeleton squad shouldering the club’s pre-season campaign. Not to mention the mental and emotional effect of being so long part of the sport’s biggest drug story.
Captain Jobe Watson has shown composure throughout, and he’ll have support from three seniors who came from other clubs and so dodged the injections at Windy Hill. Brownlow medallist Adam Cooney, Norm Smith medallist Paul Chapman and dual All-Australian Brendon Goddard are a pretty solid bunch to have around. The midfield has an energetic look about it: Watson at the centre, Dyson Heppell stepping up to elite level, David Zaharakis breaking lines, David Myers’s long boot, Travis Colyer’s busy presence. Brent Stanton provides experience, and the Merrett brothers, Zach and Jackson, have the capacity to become a huge double act.
Dustin Fletcher will inspire with his 400th game, and he’s well supported in defence. But Essendon will struggle at the other end: Jason Winderlich, Jake Carlisle and Michael Hibberd have played forward and back without fully delivering at either, while Tom Bellchambers and former Giant Jonathan Giles need to cover the ruck. Too much will be left to Joe Daniher, at 21 years old and probably underweight for his height. Paddy Ryder kicked only 20 goals last season, but Essendon will miss them. (GL)
Gold Coast Suns
The Gold Coast Suns still don’t feel like a living, breathing thing yet. You can’t have forgotten much about the history of this football club. Remember when Nathan Ablett played for them? Of course you do, it only happened four years ago. You might not have found time to go to the dentist in the intervening time. Anyway, where Gold Coast football is concerned all romance must be manufactured by the present group of players. Stoking those flames will be new coach Rodney Eade, who has an exciting list at his disposal but also a realistic view of where they’re at; the finals fringe.
Despite the host of tall timber at either end of the ground and Gary Ablett in the middle, in past seasons you could never shake the feeling that between the bookends were multiple copies of the same Ablett-shaped book; a Tolstoy-esque masterpiece for sure, but even then not quite enough. These days their midfield is far more balanced and the load better spread; Dion Prestia and David Swallow providing the muscle, Jaeger O’Meara and Harley Bennell the class and pace and Ablett still doing everything bar the ruck work with peerless excellence.
Eade aside, the Suns hierarchy have made a bit of noise about performance expectations (again, they’ve got hearts to win and memberships to sell so they can’t really be faulted on that one), but at the very minimum they need to be playing finals football this year. Ablett deserves it for being the most diligent and admirable frontier man the fledgling club could have hoped for. The Suns lost seven of the eight games he missed at the back-end of last season, which says something of his impact.
Into the line-up this year comes Sydney premiership defender Nick Malceski, precisely the kind of cultural addition that should in theory aid in the development of his backline colleague and probably free Ablett’s mind from some stress. They picked up an impressive pair of youngsters in Jarrod Garlett and giant Peter Wright too, but the big improvement here needs to come from the 16 Suns players who now have 40-80 games under their belts. Their time is now. (RJ)
