What hath the Patriots wrought?
I’m not exactly sure what that question even means or implies, but it feels appropriately weighty in the wake of an offseason of tumult, discord, Ideal Gas Law and lessons in sports morality foisted on us by Roger Goodell, the New England Patriots, Tom Brady and their equipment men – one of whom, in a bizarre but completely innocent coincidence, is nicknamed “The Deflator.” (Good luck in your weight loss battle, The Deflator! America is pulling for you!)
Now that the entire ordeal is over – save for Roger Goodell’s appeal of Judge Berman’s ruling and any upcoming ESPN Outside the Lines reports linking the Patriots to more cheating or international espionage – the only question we can ask is: “What impact will it have on the field in 2015?”
And the answer is: Absolutely none.
And if Brady had been suspended four games? Absolutely none.
And if the suspension had been reduced to one or two games? None. Still none.
The New England Patriots that take the field Thursday night against the Steelers are essentially the same team that won the Super Bowl, save the loss of Darrelle Revis and Vince Wilfork. The Patriots were 2.5-point favorites in Vegas before Brady’s suspension was nullified. This team wasn’t going to collapse even without their phone-destroying hero. At worst, they would have gotten off to a 2-2 start, 1-3 if Jimmy Garoppolo really struggled. That would have been easily overcome in a division the Patriots have won with ease for a generation.
As much as everyone wants to see the Patriots fail, they’re hated even more because we all know deep inside that the Deflategate drama only helps them. They only grow stronger from this. There will be no Super Bowl hangover. They will be out to prove they are legit to the “haters” and the “doubters”. The Patriots will get to use their “us against the world” thing. They’ll play the disrespect card. Tom Brady will want to throw the ball farther and Gronk will want to spike it harder.
At the risk of becoming the millionth sportswriter to quote a line from The Wire, Omar Little said it best: “You come at the king, you best not miss.” Roger Goodell, in his unmatched incompetence, missed. Badly. He missed so bad his shot ricocheted off the courthouse wall and hit him square in his stupid face.
The New England Patriots are reigning Super Bowl champions. And there’s zero reason to think they can’t do it again this year. Everything is terrible.
Will Rex Ryan ever be more than an entertaining head coach?
The NFL coaching ranks are not flush with eccentric personalities. The profession seems to attract a certain kind of person. A person who enjoys cliches, khakis, avoiding risk and purposefully checking off every category for “stereotypical American male, tough guy personality”.
But then there is Rex Ryan. He gets ill-advised tattoos. He likes feet. He wears costumes. He curses. OK, almost every football coach curses. But Ryan does it so much that he gave Tony Dungy the vapors. Rex Ryan has more personality than all 31 other NFL head coaches combined. The NFL is better with Rex Ryan. But the question is: Are Rex Ryan’s teams better with Rex Ryan?
Ryan is 46-50 in six seasons as an NFL head coach, posting winning records in just two of those seasons (and none since 2010). During his Jets tenure he predicted Super Bowl titles and vowed he’d take down the Patriots. That never occurred. In fact, Ryan’s Jets went 4-9 against New England and saw the Patriots win the division every year, usually by a large margin. A normal coach, a sane coach, would have taken the first opportunity to ply his trade anywhere other than in Bill Belichick’s AFC East.
But Ryan took the Buffalo job and said into the microphone at his introductory press conference in January: “Is this thing on? Because it’s about to be on.” If laughter is something Belichick can express, he had to have at least chuckled at Ryan’s continued confidence.
Ryan does, however, have more to work with in Buffalo than he did during the end of his tenure in New Jersey. The Bills feature one of the top defenses in the NFL. It should only get better with Ryan in town. The offense will also improve thanks to the acquisition of LeSean McCoy, a typical go-for-broke move by Ryan. McCoy ran for 1,319 yards last year, which is more than Buffalo’s top three 2014 rushers combined.
Ryan’s main issue, as it always has been, is at quarterback. Former Ravens backup Tyrod Taylor has been named the starter, primarily because he’s not Matt Cassel or EJ Manuel, Buffalo’s two other (wildly depressing) options for the job. Through four NFL seasons, Taylor has thrown just 35 passes. That’s approximately nine career pass attempts for every Super Bowl ring owned by Tom Brady. It’s hard to compete with such a huge disadvantage at the most important position on the field.
For that reason alone, Ryan is not yet ready to deliver on his vow to overtake the Patriots. But his Bills team will be competitive, maybe even playoff contenders, which means we’ll all get at least a few more years of Ryan. Maybe even a Ryan with a Tyrod Taylor back tattoo.
Are the Dolphins finally ready to take the next step?
There is something to be said for total failure in the NFL. Winning a Super Bowl is the ultimate goal, of course, but if that’s not realistically attainable, bottoming out and stocking up on high draft picks is a solid alternative. Winning a Super Bowl has not been realistically attainable for the Dolphins for quite some time, yet they’ve kept plugging away, doing their best with mediocre rosters, only to find themselves trapped in NFL No-Man’s Land: 7-9, 8-8 and 6-10 seasons as far as the eye can see, and slotted to pick in the middle of the first-round every April.\
But the Dolphins – the only team other than the Patriots to win the AFC East in the past 12 years (thanks Tom Brady’s 2008 knee injury) – think it’s their time to break through again to NFL relevance. The biggest reason is because, unlike the Bills and Jets, the Dolphins believe they are settled at the quarterback position. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M’s quarterback before the more famous QB currently holding down backup duties in Cleveland succeeded him, set career highs in passing yards (4,045), passing touchdowns (27) and rushing yards (311) in 2014. Now at age 27 and entering his fourth year as a starter, this is the season for Tannehill’s to take the next step. If he can do that, the Dolphins can make the postseason. If he can’t, if his career is going to be more on the Matt Ryan arc – a capable quarterback who can put up nice numbers, but never challenge for a Super Bowl – Miami will remain in the 8-8, 9-7 purgatory of irrelevance.
What has Dolphins fans excited is that Tannehill doesn’t have to do it by himself. Miami brought in receivers Greg Jennings and Kenny Stills in hopes of improving the passing game even more. But the team’s biggest offseason acquisition, literally and figuratively, was the signing of 6ft 4in 307lbs defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. It can be debated if Suh is more reputation than production and if he’s worth $114m, but it can’t be debated that he will immediately improve Miami’s 24th-ranked run defense. (It also can’t be debated that it’s refreshing that Suh is away from the Detroit Lions, where he can no longer outrage the aunts of America by attacking someone on national TV during our Thanksgiving dinners.)
On the downside, the offensive line is a concern. And for football-only reasons these days, not bullying-related ones. Tannehill gets sacked a lot, but he has shown the mobility and durability to work through that in his short career. If he would get injured, though? Miami would be in bad shape. Or good shape, if you’re of the mind that the Dolphins would finally be bad enough to get some early draft picks.
Will Todd Bowles turn the Jets around?
In new head coach Todd Bowles, Jets management believes they have a coach who will bring a different vibe to the locker room than his predecessor, Ryan. Bowles offers a more laid-back approach, but is less likely to put up with mental mistakes and penalties. All that is great. As entertained as we are by Ryan, locker rooms can benefit from change.
The problem with the Jets, however, is that the real problem with their locker room hasn’t changed: the quality of the players in it. Rex Ryan, Todd Bowles, reanimated Vince Lombardi, it doesn’t matter who coaches this team, they wouldn’t win a ton of games. Heck, Belichick was Jets head coach for one day back in 1999 before realizing that even he couldn’t work his magic (and/or vast cheating programs) there.
The 2015 season is for Bowles, or should be, one long, 16-game exhibition slate to develop the team for a hopefully brighter future. Looking at those 16 games as meaningless exhibitions is also my recommendation for how Jets fans can better cope with every season of Jets football.
The defense is the Jets’ one strongpoint. And it’s very strong. In 2014, it was sixth in yards allowed and now welcomes cornerback Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie back to the team. Revis, Cromartie, Sheldon Richardson and friends will keep the Jets in games. It will be up to the offense to win games – and that’s where things begin to fall apart.
Or is it?
Bowles’ tenure seemingly opened in predictable, sad, Jets-ian fashion when his starting quarterback got his jaw broken by a punch from a team-mate. That feels like the kind of misfortune that always befalls this franchise. Except Bowles’ starting quarterback was Geno Smith, who is not good at playing quarterback at the professional level, and means the Jets have to open the season with Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has the skills (learned at Harvard, according to reports!) to at least game-manage a team to a few victories. Smith theoretically has a higher upside than Smith long-term, but if the Jets are looking to compete for a wildcard spot this year, Fitzpatrick is their best hope. That punch could have been the key to a successful Jets season.
Best case, the Jet defense is an absolute terror this year and Fitzpatrick can get the ball to Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker in the end zone enough to see the Jets win some games. Worst case ... it’s the Jets. It’s too terrible to even imagine.
Predicted final standings
1) New England Patriots: 12-4
2) Miami Dolphins: 10-6
3) Buffalo Bills: 9-7
4) New York Jets: 6-10
