Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs prediction, NFL Playoff AFC Championship game preview.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs Broadcast
Date: Sunday, January 24
Game Time: 6:40 ET
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Network: CBS
– All of the CFN Fearless Predictions
AFC Championship: Buffalo Bills (15-3) at Kansas City (15-2) Game Preview
For latest lines and to bet on the NFL, go to BetMGM
Why Buffalo Will Win The AFC Championship
You really think Patrick Mahomes is right?
He’s expected to play – at least that’s the hope after passing several tests and checkmarks early in the week – but even if he’s able to go will he still be at 100% full strength?
Chad Henne is a fine, restaurant-quality veteran, but – duh – Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes.
Even if No. 15 is just fine and back to normal, it’s not like the Chief offense is operating at peak efficiency. Yeah, it was ripping up and down the field before Mahomes got hurt against Cleveland, but that was a bit of an aberration over the second half of the season.
Maybe the O was just saving itself for when it was Game On, but counting the 22-17 victory in the Divisional Round, the last time the Chiefs won a game by more than six points was back on November 1st – Week 8 – against the Jets.
Even in the Week 6 win over the Bill, KC managed to put up a whole lot of yards, but struggled to put the biscuit in the basket in the 26-17 win.
The Buffalo defense is a whole lot better since then.
The run defense got ripped up in the first meeting, and there have been a few issues here and there, but even when there’s been bending there hasn’t been a ton of breaking. The Bills haven’t allowed more than 26 points in any of the last eight games – all wins.
The defense has to hold KC to field goals like Cleveland was able to do last week – the Chiefs settled for four attempts, hitting three – and the offense that leads the NFL in third down conversions has to keep things moving because …
– Why Kansas City Will Win
– What’s Going To Happen, Who’ll Win
NEXT: Why Kansas City Will Win The AFC Championship
Why Kansas City Will Win The AFC Championship
This is a quick strike Buffalo offense with the firepower and weapons to hang punch for punch with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City attack, but it won’t be able to get away with getting destroyed in the time of possession battle again.
The Chiefs might have only put up 26 points in the first game against the Bills, but they held on to the ball for close to 38 minutes and kept Josh Allen and company off off the field.
That was hardly an aberration.
The Ravens only scored three points last week, but they had the offense on the field for close to 36 minutes. The Colts had the ball for over 34 minutes in their Wild Card loss.
The Dolphins owned the clock for well over five minutes more than the Bills in the regular season finale, the Patriots almost doubled up the stat by keeping the ball for close to 40 minutes, and on and on and …
Buffalo won all of those games. However, New England, Miami, Indianapolis and Baltimore aren’t Kansas City in terms of talent and versatility.
If Patrick Mahomes is fine, then no big whoop. The offense goes on like normal and the Chiefs are the Chiefs. But if he’s less than 100%, or if Chad Henne gets the call, owning the clock could be the way this works.
The Kansas City defense isn’t anything special, but grind away on offense, rely on being at home – with whatever advantages that holds – and simply hold serve once in a while.
Limit the Buffalo possessions and the times Josh Allen gets his shot to be Josh Allen, but keep being creative and fearless.
No, this might not be as easy offensively as it was throughout last year for the Chiefs, but they keep on winning. No one is better this year at knowing how to pull out close games.
– What’s Going To Happen, Who’ll Win
NEXT: What’s Going To Happen, Who’s Going To Win The AFC Championship
What’s Going To Happen, Who’s Going To Win The AFC Championship
Is it a concussion? Is it a nerve issue? Is it the toe problem?
The status of Patrick Mahomes is obviously everything to this game, but the early indications are that the Chiefs seem to think he’s going to play. That might be wishful thinking – and we’ll come back and edit and change this once if becomes clear one way or another – but for the moment let’s go with the idea that he’ll be able to give it a go.
It’s the AFC Championship, and there are two weeks off before the Super Bowl, so it might be full steam ahead with the idea that he and the rest of the team can rest, but …
That Buffalo team on the other side is good no matter what.
As mentioned before, Kansas City hasn’t won by more than a touchdown in any of its last nine games, and Buffalo has won by ten points or more in seven of its last eight games and in eight of its last ten.
The Bills machine is rolling. It’s not making a ton of mistakes, the defense is coming up with the key stops in the right moments, and only Green Bay is scoring with better efficiency and effectiveness.
The Chiefs will get up fast and look like everything is normal, but Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense will start to settle in late in the first half to come back.
The Kansas City game back in Week 6 was the last time the Bills were down at halftime, and last week was the first time since then that they weren’t leading – tied at three with the Ravens.
However, this Chiefs team finds ways to get it done.
Whether it’s a quick pass on fourth and inches to seal the win over Cleveland, or beating Tampa Bay and New Orleans on the road by three points each, to winning ten games this season by a touchdown or less …
Kansas City will survive in a thriller.
– CFN Experts Picks: Championship Weekend
AFC Championship: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Prediction, Line
Kansas City 26, Buffalo 24
Bet on NFL Playoffs with BetMGM
Kansas City -3, o/u: 53.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 1.5
Must See Rating: 5
5: Nirvana: Radio Friendly Unit Shifter (Live And Loud, Seattle, 1993)
1: Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist
