THE RETIREMENT of Eraring Power Station may force NSW beyond the "reliability" threshold four years earlier than previously forecast, according to the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO).
On Thursday, AEMO published an update to its 2021 Electricity Statement of Opportunities to account for the revised closure of Origin's Eraring power station and the AGL- operated Bayswater.
In a scenario modelled off "committed" developments - projects which are sufficiently advanced to satisfy AEMO's criteria - the organisation said expected unserved energy (USE) in NSW will exceed the reliability threshold from 2025-26. This is four years earlier than forecast in the 2021 statement.
"Without additional investments beyond existing commitments, USE in New South Wales is forecast to continue to increase, particularly after the retirement of Vales Point Power Station in 2029-30," the update read.
AEMO says Eraring's retirement will come at the cost of 2880MW of energy generation capacity. This would leave a forecast reliability gap of 590 MW for NSW based on committed developments.
However, the update also presented a forecast based on "anticipated developments", which meet at least three of AEMO's five "committed" criteria.
Along with the HumeLink and Sydney Ring projects, these anticipated developments account for 1706MW of large-scale solar and wind generation and 268 MW of battery energy storage.
Under this model, the closure of Eraring would not force NSW to exceed the reliability threshold, however, the retirement of Vales Point in 2029 would push USE beyond the threshold by 2031.
"The retirement of Eraring Power Station, without replacement investments, could lead to a reduction in the reliability of the [National Energy Market], particularly in NSW," AEMO's Executive General Manager System Design, Merryn York, said.
"Commitment of some currently anticipated generation and transmission projects, including those being pursued through the NSW Government Electricity Infrastructure Roadmap, are crucial to meeting reliability standards in NSW by 2025-26."
To address the loss of Eraring's capacity, the update calls for "additional investments in renewable energy and electricity storage".
AEMO also points to proposed developments not included in the update that may "further improve reliability", many of which are based in the Hunter.
"These shorter-duration storages include Origin Energy's 700 MW Eraring Battery, AGL's 500 MW Liddell Battery, and over 2.3 GW of other proposed New South Wales battery projects," the update read.
