The National People's Congress of China opened its annual legislative gathering last Monday with Prime Minister Li Keqiang announcing a conservative 2018 economic growth target of around 6.5%, and the biggest rise in military spending in three years. The budget for the People's Liberation Army is rising 8.1% to 1.1 trillion yuan or US$175 billion.
Observers agree China's military is in dire need of an upgrade to modernise its capability. This is no surprise given Beijing's growing occupation of the South China Sea, more assertive attitudes toward Taiwan, and tension along the perennially sensitive Line of Control with India.
The state-run China Daily insists a bigger military budget does not represent an arms race, noting that China's military spending "accounts for just one-fourth of the military spending of the US". Indeed, the US military budget for fiscal 2018-19 has been set at $886 billion, up 48% from $598 billion in 2015.
The rise of China's military probably would be making bigger headlines but it has been overshadowed in recent weeks by the deification of President Xi Jinping, as the rubber-stamp legislature prepares to abolish term limits. Mr Xi has pushed through many beneficial reforms that have led to 40% growth in the economy in the past five years, and he also deserves some credit for taking stern action against corruption. But the anti-corruption drive has also served as a handy way to silence all political opposition; becoming leader for life is a natural next step for him.
Now the president's political thought is about to be enshrined in the constitution, putting him on par with founder Mao Zedong. But why now? Two main interpretations are in play, in the view of noted academic Thitinan Pongsudhirak.
Mr Xi has made many enemies with his reforms and anti-graft purges, so he needs to further consolidate power by controlling all three main positions -- party leader, president and head of the Central Military Commission -- indefinitely. Others see signs of weakness, saying Mr Xi does not feel secure enough to delegate power and pick a successor. He may become more powerful but could also become "more isolated and vulnerable to backstabbing".
Dr Thitinan sees some merit in both arguments.
"Never in the last 200 years has China towered over international affairs like today," he told me. "From the Belt and Road initiative, AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) and New Development Bank to the South China Sea artificial islands, Mekong dams and growing military bases around the world, China clearly has staked its future on the momentum and success so far under President Xi."
China built it first overseas military base at Djibouti in the Horn of Africa last year and sees further potential in Tanzania in eastern Africa; Gwadar, a port city in southwestern Pakistan; Mauritius, Hambantota in Sir Lanka, the Maldives, and on the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.
"Centralising more control under Xi will ensure continuity and reinforcement ahead of key anniversaries like 2021 and 2049, century marks of the Communist Party of China and the communist revolution respectively. But we must not overlook inherent fragilities within the system, such as China's huge debt and political rivalry at the top," added Dr Thitinan.
One-man rule may be seen as the best hope for policy continuity of the Belt and Road and the success of reforms to create a more open economy with qualitative growth. But an authoritarian China could also become even more assertive in the South China Sea, tougher on Taiwan and Hong Kong and more brutal in suppressing internal dissent on the mainland.
"China under President Xi's longer-term rule will likely be bolder and more assertive in its geostrategic outlook, policy aims and overall pursuit of interests. What we have seen in the past five years can now be lengthened for another decade and multiplied in different directions, assuming he can steer a steady ship of state without implosion within," Dr Thitinan said.
My personal concern remains for my Taiwanese and Hong Kong friends, following Mr Li's warnings that China will "advance China's peaceful reunification" and will "never tolerate any separatist schemes" in Taiwan.
China wants everybody to believe that it is a peaceful nation that wants nothing but to trade for mutual benefit under the Belt and Road. But as long as it acts differently in the South China Sea, I believe claims of "peaceful reunification" as much as I do the claim by Kim Jong-un that he might be willing to give up nuclear weapons.
