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Tribune News Service
Tribune News Service
Sport
Chuck Carlton

Adding two schools might be the most likely outcome of Big 12 expansion

As school after school searches for the best combination of Skype and PowerPoint to impress the Big 12, one aspect of expansion may be coming into focus.

The addition of two schools just might be the most likely outcome of Big 12 expansion. It also could be the best decision for the Big 12's security and stability.

For now, three industry and school sources say not much is expected this week as Commissioner Bob Bowlsby goes Olympic-caliber binge watching on pitches from the 18 universities that want into the Big 12. While a decision could conceivably come as early as the week of Aug. 29, sources said, a more realistic timetable is mid-to-late September.

While that leaves plenty of time for things to change or evolve, two schools might make the most sense.

For the moment, Cincinnati and Houston occupy front-runner status. Beyond those two, there are questions, the biggest being where BYU stands with its national following balanced by concerns ranging from a Department of Education investigation to LGBT community objections.

So what's the Big 12 to do?

It could opt for Cincinnati and Houston and try to get some concessions from the folks at Fox and ESPN for only moving to 12 and not 14. Maybe there's a potential tradeoff for giving up the pro rata clause going forward.

Don't think of the process as individual schools vying for votes. Instead, envision a package deal. What about Team A, Team B and this sweetener in the TV deal? Expect candid discussions between current members as well.

The end result for the Big 12 would be one member in a new, populous market and another in a Top 10 market that needs to be shored up.

Even with just two teams _ and assuming the new members get a $5 million share for starters _ existing members could still make an additional $4 million per school plus another estimated $2.5 million to $3 million each from the return of the conference title game.

In theory, the Big 12 builds on the momentum from 2015-16 that saw teams reach the College Football Playoff, men's Final Four and the College World Series to position itself to add teams in the next decade.

The biggest problem may be setting up the divisions from a geographic and competitive standpoint.

Sources indicated that four schools remain a viable option as the one that would bring the most revenue. Between BYU, UConn, Central Florida, Colorado State and Memphis, cases can be made. But four teams and the accompanying $100 million payout per year wouldn't be popular with Fox and ESPN.

Several reports have indicated that the Big 12 is actually considering doing nothing.

So after keeping expansion alive in early June and then in late July, interviewing 18 schools, spending money on consultants, the conference is going to channel the late Gilda Radner and say: "Never mind."

Even with the Big 12's history of bad decisions and false starts, that's unlikely. A conference that has battled to restore its credibility after two rounds of realignment would again be a punch line.

Now, if Fox and ESPN combine for an offer that the conference can't refuse ...

Otherwise, the Big 12 appears headed for two new schools and a membership that finally matches its name again.

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