It was entirely foreseeable, and has resulted in billions of dollars in forgone revenue for Australia.
But just how did policymakers fail to extract a single cent in company tax from Adani’s Carmichael coalmine, even though it opened during the start of a commodity price boom?
To understand how it came about, you must first rewind to 2010, a period that coincided with a sharp escalation in the climate wars that would eventually tear through the political corridors of Canberra.
Against that backdrop, the Indian conglomerate proposed a coalmine to extract up to 60m tonnes per year, for 150 years, making it one of the world’s biggest.
It would also open up the untapped Galilee Basin, ushering in a new period of resources prosperity, especially for central Queensland.
The economic promise was enticing. At its peak, such an operation would create more than 10,000 full-time jobs, according to an Adani consultant’s report published in 2013.
The then head of Adani mining, Jeyakumar Janakaraj, said the Australian operations would deliver $22bn in taxes and royalties to be invested “right back into frontline services”.
The “10,000 jobs [and] $22bn in royalties and taxes” pledge became a mantra that was even featured in Adani TV advertisements.
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It would be a win-win for the state and federal governments – royalties would flow to the state and company tax to the commonwealth – both of which needed to issue approvals.
Irresistible riches
The Carmichael emissions would, of course, be colossal, producing 4.7bn tonnes of CO2-equivalent over its lifetime, once the mine, its operations and the burning of its coal were taken into account, according to analysis by the Australia Institute at the time.
Annual emissions would be double the average produced by Tokyo, and three times that of New Delhi.
The ensuing battle between environmentalists and the coalminer divided communities; but Adani’s jobs and economic benefit pledge seemed irresistible – until it changed.
In 2015, conservationists went to the Queensland land court, seeking a recommendation that Adani’s applications for an environmental approval and mining lease for Carmichael be refused.
The research director at the Australia Institute, Rod Campbell, says “Adani’s lawyers realised that the 10,000 jobs claim was unsupportable, so they bit the bullet”.
Campbell, who provided economic analysis for the proceedings opposing Adani, says the coalminer changed consultants and argued in court for a more modest jobs claim “but otherwise sang the praises of the mine”.
The new economic models brought the expected job numbers down to fewer than 1,500.
By 2015, the anticipated tonnes coming out of the mine had also reduced, from 60m a year to 40m; it would later reduce to 10m.
But the projected corporate tax take still appeared strong, with the project forecast to generate about $400m a year under the new forecasts.
Adani’s modelling was broadly accepted by the court, even though critics pointed out it didn’t account for tax minimisation strategies.
‘Billions for taxpayers’
By 2017, Adani’s bid for a subsidised commonwealth loan was unravelling, and global banks were concerned about the economics and reputational damage of funding the new coal project.
The mine’s supporters doubled down, led by industry groups including the Minerals Council of Australia (MCA), which called on policymakers to back the project.
The MCA chief executive, Tania Constable, said in 2018 the Queensland and Australian economies would benefit from thousands of new regional jobs.
“And through mining taxes and royalties, the Carmichael mine will generate billions of dollars for taxpayers over decades to fund nurses, teachers, police, hospitals, roads and other services and infrastructure for Queensland families and communities,” Constable said.
The MCA was contacted for comment.
Adani would go on to finance the project itself, although it would be a smaller project than it had envisaged, given the lack of external funding.
“The coal will be sold to customers in the Asia-Pacific region at index adjusted pricing, which means all taxes and royalties will be paid here in Australia,” Adani said in late 2021, after assembling its first shipment of thermal coal at the port.
‘Bing, bing, warning bells going off’
The Indian conglomerate couldn’t have timed the project any better.
In late 2021, prices for energy commodities had started to surge in line with the rising tension between Russia and Ukraine. Coal prices then spiked to record highs after the Russian invasion in early 2022.
In its first few months of operation, Adani’s mine generated more than $32.5m in revenue, according to accounts lodged with the regulator. But it recorded an operating loss after costs, leading to zero tax payable.
This pattern would repeat, even as revenue increased.
In the 2025 reporting period, it earned $1.27bn in revenue, but once again recorded a paper loss, as various related-party transactions and interest payments erased profits.
Tim Buckley, a former investment banker and the director of Climate Energy Finance, describes Adani’s finances as an “extremely complex, opaque corporate structure”.
Jason Ward, the principal analyst at the Centre for International Corporate Tax Accountability and Research, says the volume of related-party transactions is “pretty unprecedented” and that it is set up to never pay tax.
“Every page of their financials is like, ‘bing, bing, warning bells going off’,” says Ward.
Adani has paid royalties – payments made to governments to extract state-owned minerals – with a $78.6m payment in the 2025 accounts, and $83.5m in 2024.
Its most recent accounts list just 84 direct employees at the mine, however it uses a mining services provider to hire other workers.
A spokesperson for Adani’s Australian mining business, which is branded Bravus Mining and Resources, says Adani has invested more than $2.5bn into Australia’s economy.
“Today, more than 1,200 Queenslanders are employed at the Carmichael mine in full-time operational roles to produce high-quality thermal coal for the export market,” the Bravus spokesperson says.
“Developing nations in the Asia-Pacific region use coal from the Carmichael mine alongside renewables to provide reliable and affordable energy solutions that help reduce poverty and power growth.”
While there is no suggestion Adani has acted illegally, several politicians have expressed frustration that a large resources company can pay less company tax than a low-paid worker pays in income tax.
The independent senator David Pocock said on X: “Why on earth do successive [governments] keep allowing giant multinational companies to reap super profits from the sale of our resources without paying tax?”
Independent MP Zali Steggall says Adani is a “cautionary tale”, and that policymakers should reform the approvals process to place conditions on miners to meet their stated promises.
She says companies invariably overstate project benefits which “magically disappear once the operations commence, especially when you’re talking about foreign-owned corporations”.
“Time and time again, we see state and federal ministers and governments approve projects on flimsy assurances that don’t come true,” says Steggall.
“It’s time there was proper accountability for Australian resources so that we stop giving it away in the manner we are at the moment.”
Jonathan Barrett is Guardian Australia’s business editor
