The Canberra economy remains healthy, according to the main author of a new report. And pessimistic talk of recession is unfounded.
"The ACT economy remains solid," Craig James, chief economist of CommSec which is part of Commonwealth Bank, said.
He cited the labour market as particularly encouraging. "The ACT is standing out in terms of job vacancies," he told The Canberra Times.
He and his colleague, Ryan Felsman, have taken the economic pulse of the states and regions using a string of factors: economic growth, spending in shops, investment in equipment, unemployment, construction, population growth, mortgages and building homes.
"Victoria remains the best performing economy. Tasmania has moved past NSW into second spot but there is little separating the states. The ACT is solidly in fourth position," said the report.
Apart from the jobs market, the upside for the ACT is that housing finance - borrowing to buy a home - is strong compared with other parts of Australia, indicating a buoyant housing market but also an optimism about the future - people borrow when they feel confident.
Spending on retail goods was well above the average for the previous ten years.
You look at the ACT economy, it's holding solid.
Craig James, chief economist, CommSec
It did less well on population growth, an indicator of economic activity in that when wages are rising and there's abundant work, people move in. High population growth also indicates a good supply of labour.
The population of the ACT is still growing quickly but not as quickly as in previous periods.
The report underlines the conclusions of two other studies earlier in the year.
In July, a survey from the ANZ/Property Council pointed out that unemployment had increased - although, at 3.9 per cent, it remained the nation's lowest rate. The research also found that the territory's rapid population growth rate slowed in 2018 to 1.8 per cent.
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And, secondly, researchers at the global accountancy firm, KPMG, said that the ACT was the best placed part of Australia to survive and bounce back from big shocks to the economy.
The general picture that emerges from the recent surveys is of an ACT economy which is as strong as that of the other best performing regions, but with evidence of a slowdown.
Mr James was dismissive of talk of recession. He said the Australian economy was slowing just like that economies of China and the United States were.
But there had been 36 consecutive quarters of employment growth and 28 years where the economy had grown every year.
