If a trend now six seasons old continues, we already know which team will win the ACC's regular season. Well, check that: We know that one of three teams _ Florida State, North Carolina or Notre Dame _ will go on to finish first.
After the third weekend of conference games, the Seminoles, Tar Heels and Fighting Irish are all 6-1 in the league, all tied for first place. But here's the point: in each of the past six seasons, the team that has gone on to finish first in the ACC also won at least six of its first seven league games.
North Carolina was a perfect 7-0 in the ACC at this point last season before it went on to win the regular season. So was Virginia in 2015, and Miami in 2013. Virginia finished first in 2014 after a 6-1 start, as did UNC in 2012 and 2011.
The most recent team to win the regular season after losing more than one of its first seven conference games? That'd be Duke and Maryland, in 2010. They were both 5-2 in the ACC at this point in their schedule, and they both finished 13-3 and in a tie for first atop the conference.
After three weeks of conference play, the ACC looks more and more like a three-team race. Virginia, at 5-2, is still in it (though it faces a difficult road _ more on that below). And don't count out Louisville, which played valiantly at Florida State on Saturday without point guard Quentin Snider.
But with the margins between the best teams _ and even the worst _ as thin as they are, Florida State, UNC and Notre Dame have a clear advantage. If one of those teams doesn't go on to win the regular season, it'd be the first time since 2010 that sort of thing has happened.
In the ACC's 14-team era, and now with 15 teams, no team has ever won the league after losing more than one of its first six ACC games. So while the likes of Virginia, Louisville and Duke still have a chance, one of those teams would have to make some history to wind up in first place.
Among the three teams tied atop the conference standings, Florida State has to be the favorite to win the regular season. Not necessarily because the Seminoles are clearly better than either UNC or Notre Dame, but because Florida State's schedule is so favorable from here on out.
The Seminoles are 6-1 in the ACC after making it through, by far, their most difficult portion of the schedule. It was a stretch that included games against Virginia, Duke, Notre Dame, Louisville. Now Florida State has reached the other side. The combined record of its opponents in its remaining 11 conference games: 26-45.
Clemson's 1-5 league record (as of Saturday) counts in that total twice, and the Tigers are probably better than that record indicates. But still, only one team left on the Seminoles' schedule has a winning ACC record. That team is Notre Dame, which Florida State plays on the road on Feb. 11.
The remaining 11 conference games for UNC and Notre Dame, meanwhile, are much more difficult. UNC still has to play twice against Virginia, and Duke, and the Tar Heels have yet to play their lone game against the Fighting Irish. In addition to its road game at UNC, Notre Dame, meanwhile, still has to travel to Louisville, and it also has home games left against Florida State, Virginia and Duke.
It would be unwise to count out Virginia, just one game back of the trio tied atop the conference standings. And yet the Cavaliers' remaining conference schedule is more difficult than any of the three belonging to the teams above them in the standings.
Virginia has two games remaining against UNC and Virginia Tech, which is an especially formidable opponent on its home court. The Cavaliers still have to go on the road to Notre Dame, then Virginia gets to try to defend its home court against Louisville, Duke and Miami.
And so if the Cavaliers become the first team since 2010 to win the regular season after losing more than one of its first seven ACC games, they'll have earned it after surviving _ and thriving _ amid a particularly menacing remaining schedule.
