The final week of the 2025 college football regular season is here, and this weekend’s slate of games will determine which teams qualify for each conference championship game.
In the ACC, six teams remain in contention to advance to the ACC championship game: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, Pitt, SMU and Virginia.
Advancing to the conference championship game is especially important for teams in the ACC since it is the primary path to the College Football Playoff for five of those six teams. Miami is the ACC’s highest-ranked team, but according to ESPN’s projections they have just a 13% shot at making the ACC title game. For the other five schools, winning the ACC championship is their best opportunity to reach the CFP.
As the ACC’s top six teams make a run at the championship game, here is a look at how they can qualify.
Who are the top contenders for the ACC championship game?
SMU and Virginia have emerged as the frontrunners to compete in the ACC championship game. Per ESPN, both schools have over an 80% chance of making the ACC title game, with SMU holding an 86% chance to do so.
The ACC championship game race has been one of the more interesting ones in college football this year. Despite being the ACC’s top-ranked squad, Miami has a better shot at qualifying for the CFP than reaching the title game as of the Week 13 CFP rankings. A week ago, Georgia Tech was the top contender to play in the ACC championship game and was in control of its own destiny before getting blown out by Pitt. Now, they are a long shot to reach the conference championship game.
ACC standings entering Week 13 (only teams listed are those alive for conference title)
How Week 14 will affect ACC championship game scenarios
With six teams still in contention to reach the ACC championship game, several games across the conference in Week 14 could impact who reaches the conference championship, including SMU-Cal and Wake Forest-Duke. Even games without contenders like UNC-N.C. State and Syracuse-Boston College could have tiebreaker impacts depending on how the weekend shakes out.
If both SMU and Virigina take care of business, those other conference matchups won’t end up mattering toward the ACC championship game. Both SMU and Virginia are win and in, but opportunities will open up for other ACC teams if they lose.
Arguably the most important ACC game of the weekend will be Miami-Pitt, the only game featuring two ACC championship contenders. The winning team will have a chance to make the conference championship game if either Virginia or SMU loses. Even outside of the ACC championship game, this matchup will be critical for Miami’s CFP hopes as an at-large.
Clinching scenarios for each ACC team to make it to the conference championship
SMU will make the ACC title game if:
- Beat Cal or
- Pitt loses AND Duke loses AND Virginia wins AND UNC wins
Virginia will make the ACC title game if:
- Beat Virginia Tech or
- SMU loses AND Pitt loses AND UNC wins
Miami will make the ACC title game if:
- Beat Pitt AND Virginia loses AND Duke loses AND SMU wins or
- Beat Pitt AND SMU loses AND Duke loses AND Virginia loses AND NC State wins or
- Beat Pitt AND SMU loses AND Duke loses AND Virginia loses AND UNC wins AND Syracuse wins or
- Beat Pitt AND SMU loses AND Duke loses AND Virginia wins AND NC State wins AND Syracuse wins
Pittsburgh will make the ACC title game if:
- Beat Miami and
- Virginia or SMU loses
Georgia Tech will make the ACC title game if:
- Pitt wins AND Virginia loses AND SMU loses or
- Miami wins AND NC State wins AND SMU loses AND Duke loses AND Virginia loses
Duke will make the ACC title game if:
- Beat Wake Forest AND both Pitt/SMU lose or
- Beat Wake Forest AND Pitt loses AND Virginia loses AND UNC wins
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as ACC Championship Game Scenarios Entering Week 14: Can Miami Still Qualify?.
