Poll delay fears resurface with election watchdog due to meet parties this month v New political outfit Thai Raksa Chart seen as 'safety net' for Pheu Thai Party v Abhisit tipped for re-election as Democrat Party chief after e-vote landslide
Parties fear EC trap
Confusion was seen written on the faces of many people of late as they brushed shoulders with members of political parties offering to shake hands with them on the streets of Bangkok and elsewhere.
Bystanders thought the parties were campaigning for votes before they realised a royal decree setting the poll date has still not been announced and the regime has not fully dismantled its ban on political activities.
The parties have in fact launched their "walkabouts" to solicit memberships needed to function as a party and contest the next poll.
However, a conspiracy theory may be mulled by certain political figures who are not confident the poll will proceed as scheduled on Feb 24.
It used to be that the buck of fixing the election date stopped with the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO). However, some politicians believe the regime needs the "complicity" of the Election Commission (EC).
Under the previous charter, the EC had no right to decide poll dates. By way of illustration, the EC issued a stern warning to the caretaker Yingluck Shinawatra administration not to proceed with the Feb 2, 2014 election since it would not be able to hold the poll within one day as constitutionally stipulated.
The caretaker government, however, insisted on pushing ahead with the poll. About 3.8 billion baht was spent organising the snap election called after Yingluck dissolved the House in December 2013.
The charter has since been amended, with the EC now vested with the authority to declare the date of the election. But the poll regulator must pay heed to political parties' needs as well as the limitations they face in contesting the poll.
That is why, according to the political sources, the EC must sponsor forums and invite the parties to attend them. The purpose of the sessions is for the EC to hear their input before it settles on the ideal date.
But the sessions may be a trap, warned Future Forward Party (FFP) leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit.
In his view, a meeting between the EC and political parties set for Nov 22 could create a pretext for further delaying the election.
During his recent walk to try and enrol new members in the Yaowarat area of Bangkok, the FFP founder voiced his concern.
The 39-year-old executive vice-president of the Thai Summit Group said the EC may be inclined to use the input to justify deferring the date yet again.
Some of the regime's more vocal critics, such as the Pheu Thai Party, have consistently complained of regulatory restrictions and the limited time parties face in preparing for the poll.
The FFP, as well as anti-regime elements, have openly cast doubt as to whether the regime will unconditionally remove the political activities ban it has imposed since the coup in May 2014.
The ban may have been lifted in part to help the parties recruit new members and convene a meeting to alter their internal regulations, in line with the new methods set for holding the election. But the ban against election campaigns remains very much intact.
The sources predicted there could be chaos if the campaign ban isn't ditched soon after the royal decree on the election date is passed. The election would be meaningless if the parties' hands were still tied in the run-up.
A royal decree is expected in December.
Mr Thanathorn said parties attending the meeting later this month must ensure they don't create conditions for the EC to add a further delay.
If they tread carefully, the regime and the EC would have no grounds to interfere with the roadmap, he added.
Dynastic scions regroup
The Thai Raksa Chart Party, a new political outfit unveiled last Wednesday, is marketing itself as a gathering point of "political young blood" politicians. But political observers argue it may be nothing more than the former ruling Pheu Thai Party's safety net.
While most of the party's core members are young, they largely come from prominent political families known to have close affiliations with the Shinawatra family, whose political and bloodline connections run deep in Pheu Thai.
Preechapol Pongpanich, the party's leader and a former MP for Khon Kaen, is the son of former senator Rabiabrat Pongpanich and former deputy interior minister Sermsak Pongpanich.
Party secretary-general, Mitti Tiyapairat, is the son of former parliament president Yongyuth Tiyapairat who reportedly vouches for the Pheu Chart Party, which is known to be closely aligned with the red-shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD).
Other key members include Ton Na-Ranong, son of former finance minister Kittirat Na-Ranong; Patchara Naripthaphan, son of former energy minister Pichai Naripthaphan; Rupob Shinawatra, son of Phayap Shinawatra; and Chayika Wongnapachan, daughter of Yaowaret Shinawatra. Mr Phayap and Mrs Yaowaret are siblings of fugitive former prime minister Thaksin.
Reports have also emerged that Panthongtae "Oak" Shinawatra, Thaksin's only son, may even join the party.
Reports about Thai Raksa Chart being formed started circulating last month with Pheu Thai figure Paradorn Patanatabut being tipped to lead the new outfit into the general election.
Political analysts believe the introduction of a new electoral system requires Pheu Thai to come up with political innovations to ensure they win a mandate to form the government after the poll tentatively set for late February.
Pundits say even though Pheu Thai has potential allies known as being part of the "pro-democracy" camp like the Future Forward Party, which is led by young tycoon Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, or the red shirt-affiliated Pheu Chart, it still needs a safety net.
Meanwhile, Pheu Tham, headed by former justice minister Sompong Amornwiwat, does not intend to win the general election.
It is likely to serve as a "spare" party for those worried about the possible dissolution of Pheu Thai, in which case Pheu Thai members would be desperate to find a new party to fall back on.
Pheu Thai is facing the allegation that it allowed Thaksin, considered a party outsider, to pull its strings -- an offence that could lead to its dissolution.
Moreover, with Thai Raksa Chart in place, Pheu Thai is effectively killing two birds with one stone.
First, it is part of a "dual-party" strategy to capture the most seats from the constituency and party-list systems.
The new electoral method means Pheu Thai might not capture any seats on the party list. If so, it would need an ally to collect the "loser votes" that will translate into party-list seats.
Pheu Thai apparently wants to field candidates with a strong chance of winning in the constituency system, and have the new offshoot, run by the offspring of the party's loyalists, court younger voters.
Thai Raksa Chart may also help ease tension within Pheu Thai, where some members are not keen on working under Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan, who was recently chosen as chair of the party's committee overseeing its election strategy.
Competition among party members vying to run in the constituencies is believed to be fierce. Thai Raksa Chart may accommodate those who are seeking to contest the constituency system but are unable to find space to do so under Pheu Thai's banner.
As an established party, Thai Raksa Chart does not have to wait to be newly registered with the Election Commission. It was renamed from Thai Ruam Phalang on Oct 7.
Abhisit in pole position
Abhisit Vejjajiva is expected to be re-elected as Democrat Party leader tomorrow when the party holds a general assembly to elect a new board of party executives, a party source said.
The source said Mr Abhisit had gained at least 70% of the votes from party members who voted online from Nov 1-9, taking a comfortable lead over the other two contenders in the party leadership contest -- former party deputy leader Alongkorn Ponlaboot, and former Democrat Phitsanulok MP Warong Dechgitvigrom.
Thailand's oldest political party introduced a nationwide electronic voting system for party members on Nov 1 to help elect its new leader.
Although the results of the e-vote only serves as a pointer of each contender's popularity, the outcome of the e-vote will be taken into account during the actual vote at the general assembly tomorrow.
The source also said that most party members believed that Mr Abhisit, who has been at the party's helm for almost 14 years, still deserves to remain their leader and that no one else is more suited for the post than him at this stage.
However, the party members also expect Mr Abhisit to change his leadership style and be more decisive as there are many tough political tasks ahead, the source said.
Most importantly, Mr Abhisit will have to shoulder the responsibility of leading the party to victory and win a majority of House seats in the general election which is expected to take place in late February.
The Democrat Party has never been victorious in previous elections following the emergence of the now-defunct Thai Rak Thai Party led by Thaksin Shinawatra in 2001.
Even though Thai Rak Thai was later dissolved, several of its incarnations -- the People Power and Pheu Thai parties -- still won poll victories in subsequent elections.
Mr Abhisit became prime minister in December 2008 with the support of Buri Ram politician Newin Chidchob, who broke away from Thaksin.
Mr Newin co-founded the Bhumjaithai Party and lent his support to the Democrat Party. Bhumjaithai, together with "Friends of Newin" politicians, voted in the House to support Mr Abhisit to become prime minister.
However, the source admitted the Democrat Party still has a slim chance of victory in next year's poll over its rival, Pheu Thai.
The Democrats may have to settle for second place in the poll with at least between 130-160 House seats.
Pheu Thai and Thai Raksa Chart will work side-by-side in the next poll to capture the most seats from the constituency and party-list systems, according to a Pheu Thai source.
Concerns have mounted within Pheu Thai that it might not capture any seat on the party list on account of the new electoral method.
Under the poll system, parties that win MP seats in the constituencies will not get MPs under the list system.
However, parties that lose in the constituencies will see their votes tallied up. If they have enough votes, they will earn party-list seats.
Pheu Thai's poll strategy is to collaborate with Thai Raksa Chart, a party that has already been registered with the Election Commission for some time.
Thai Raksa Chart, which is likely to count Pheu Thai defectors among its members, will be suited for raking in the "loser votes", which would translate into list seats.
