Shares of Abivax hit the stratosphere Wednesday after the small biotech unveiled "potentially disruptive" results for its experimental ulcerative colitis treatment, obefazimod.
The company pitted its daily pill against a placebo over the course of eight weeks. It hoped to show patients treated with obefazimod would reach clinical remission, meaning all signs of their disease disappeared. At the eight-week mark, obefazimod outperformed the placebo by 16.4%.
Leerink Partners analyst Thomas Smith says the results represent a "best-case scenario," allowing Abivax to leapfrog itself to the front of the oral inflammatory bowel disease space, a roughly $30 billion market.
They could also set Abivax up for a potential takeover, he said, noting Merck, Roche, Pfizer and Eli Lilly have all inked deals worth $3.2 billion to $10.1 billion in this space.
Abivax stock launched 586%, closing at 68.60. Shares easily rocketed to a record high. Previously, the highest point Abivax touched was just north of 17 in March 2024.
Abivax's Upcoming Readouts
Abivax now has the most compelling late-stage treatment for ulcerative colitis, one of the two diseases that make up the inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) space. The other is Crohn's disease.
In addition to promising effectiveness, Abivax's obefazimod also proved relatively safe. Roughly 16% to 26% of patients experienced headaches, but they lasted about two to three days.
The results de-risk upcoming readouts for Abivax, Smith said. Abivax is due in the second quarter of 2026 to report the results of a 44-week study in patients with ulcerative colitis. In the second half of next year, the company expects to have Phase 2 test results in patients with Crohn's disease.
Based on the results, Smith hiked his price target on Abivax stock to 74 from 20. He rates shares an outperform and expects a peak of $4 billion for obefazimod in ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease.
"With this profile, we see multi-blockbuster potential for obefazimod as a treatment for IBD, and would highlight the recent flurry of M&A (mergers and acquisitions)/BD (business development) in this space," he said.
Follow Allison Gatlin on X/Twitter at @AGatlin_IBD.
