Prime Minister Shinzo Abe effectively named Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga as his successor and guided him to victory in the campaign for president of the Liberal Democratic Party.
Aiming to prevent a victory by Shigeru Ishiba, a former LDP secretary general who has taken a clear "anti-Abe" position, the prime minister selected Suga, who has supported Abe and has a track record of achievements. Abe chose him over former LDP Policy Research Chairman Fumio Kishida, who had little prospect of expanding his support.
-- Sense of crisis
On Sept. 2, Abe reportedly told Suga in the Prime Minister's Office, "I have high hopes for you that you can make use of your experience."
That evening, Suga was scheduled to announce that he would run to be the leader of the LDP. Due to his position as prime minister, Abe refrained from expressing public support for Suga, but privately he had envisioned Suga as his successor ever since his health deteriorated and he decided to resign.
Before the press conference announcing his resignation on Aug. 28, Abe reportedly asked Suga about his intentions regarding the presidential election, and was relieved when Suga expressed his intention to run.
Abe's biggest concern was the prospect of support gathering around Ishiba.
This is because Ishiba had repeatedly appealed for change from the "Abe track," such as by calling for more investigation into the Moritomo and Kake scandals, and reconsidering the plan to relocate the U.S. Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station in Okinawa Prefecture to the Henoko district of Nago.
Abe had hopes for Kishida, but his standing had deteriorating since April. Kishida had been asked to deal with the cash payments in response to the novel coronavirus pandemic, but he had difficulty coordinating the issue.
The amount was changed from 300,000 yen per household to 100,000 yen per person at the suggestion of LDP Secretary General Toshihiro Nikai and coalition partner Komeito. This made Abe anxious that Kishida would be unable to defeat Ishiba.
Even if Kishida had the support of the Aso faction, in addition to Abe's Hosoda faction, in the presidential election, if the Nikai and Takeshita factions threw their votes behind Ishiba, there was a risk the election would go to Ishiba, who is popular in rural areas.
As for Suga, in addition to his outstanding work as chief cabinet secretary, Abe believed his personal story of working his way up from humble beginnings in Akita Prefecture would be a strength.
"My boy Suga is a real farmer, so even Ishiba can't beat him," Abe was quoted as telling people close to him.
-- Encircling Ishiba
Although Taro Aso -- a key player in the Abe administration as deputy prime minister and finance minister -- has not always seen eye-to-eye with Suga, he agreed with Abe out of a shared desire to avoid a Prime Minister Ishiba.
The source of this feeling goes back to July 2009, when Aso was prime minister. Ishiba, who was his farm minister, and Kaoru Yosano, who was finance minister, pressured Aso to step down.
The night Abe announced his resignation, Kishida met with former LDP Secretary General Makoto Koga, whom Aso has been at odds with. As a result, Aso would not support Kishida.
Nikai sensed Abe would support Suga and made clever moves in response.
While Nikai explored Suga's thoughts on the presidential election at dinner one night, he showed his veteran's savvy by also holding up Ishiba as "a star we can expect great things from."
However, once Abe announced his resignation, Nikai met with Suga, LDP Diet Affairs Committee Chairperson Hiroshi Moriyama and others on the evening of Aug. 29 at the residence for House of Representatives members.
When Suga said he planned to run for president and asked for their support, Nikai responded, "I'll have your back, so do it well."
With the Nikai faction quickly coming out for Suga, it brought an avalanche of support from other factions.
In Tuesday's LDP executive appointments, members of five factions that supported Suga were given plum positions. "It's generally going well, isn't it?" Nikai was quoted as saying to Moriyama with a look of satisfaction at LDP headquarters. Nikai was selected to stay on as secretary general.
-- Suga prepared in secret
Although Suga had publicly denied his desire to become prime minister, he had in fact been laying the groundwork.
In April last year he became instantly recognizable as "Uncle Reiwa" for announcing the new era name, and that May he visited the United States and met with U.S. Vice President Mike Pence and others, making his debut in diplomacy, a field in which he had been seen as lacking skill.
He was accompanied by about 40 people, which is on par with an overseas trip by a prime minister.
Among people close to Abe who had assumed the successor would be Kishida, there was growing alarm that Suga might be aiming for the job against Abe's desires.
At the time, Suga was quoted as telling people close to him that he felt a negative backlash was coming following his time in the spotlight. His concerns became reality.
Suga saw his influence wane after former Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Isshu Sugawara, and former Justice Minister Katsuyuki Kawai, who were both supported by Suga to enter the Cabinet, were forced to resign in October due to a series of scandals.
When the new coronavirus was spreading, Takaya Imai, an assistant to Abe, and others took the lead in deciding to close all schools in February.
However, Suga rallied when the government's response foundered, such as in the distribution to the public of cloth masks mocked as "Abenomasks." When he made his presence felt in promoting the government's Go To Travel tourism initiative, his name began to be mentioned again as a post-Abe possibility.
Suga pushed for launching the program in July, a month earlier than its planned start date. He was criticized for acting too soon, but Suga was reportedly unconcerned, telling people close to him that he was "putting his political life on the line."
A former LDP cabinet member said, "Mr. Suga's spirit was very strong, and it was clearly a move made with an eye to becoming the next prime minister."
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