A new report from the Hudson Institute delivers a serious warning about China’s rapidly growing nuclear weapons program.
The report argues that China’s goals go far beyond just having enough weapons to deter attacks. Instead, the detailed analysis suggests that China is using its expanding nuclear power to scare U.S. allies and weaken American influence in Asia. This major shift in strategy means the U.S. needs to completely rethink how it deals with the changing nuclear landscape.
By the mid-2030s, China is expected to reach nuclear equality with the United States, both in the number of weapons and their advanced technology. Estimates show China could have more than 1,000 nuclear warheads, backed by a fully operational nuclear triad. This means it can launch attacks from land-based missiles, submarines, and aircraft.
The report also points out China’s work on smaller, tactical nuclear weapons and next-generation technologies like hypersonic glide vehicles and space-based systems designed to strike with almost no warning. The Hudson Institute’s main argument is that China does not actually want to fight a nuclear war, but the U.S. should still “abandon the false hope of arms control.”
China isn’t intimidated by the US when it comes to nukes
Instead, it wants to carefully shape how other countries see the risks and make them doubt whether the U.S. would really protect its allies in Asia with nuclear weapons. By making countries like Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea unsure of American support in a crisis, China hopes to keep them from acting decisively. This strategy would give China more room to take aggressive steps (like moving against Taiwan) without facing a united response from U.S. allies.
The report explains that China is deliberately playing on fears that America might not stand by its allies when it matters most. China’s military strategy combines fast nuclear upgrades with psychological pressure and information warfare. This multi-layered approach is meant to create confusion and take advantage of weaknesses. The country’s heavy investment in advanced missile systems shows its commitment to building a nuclear force that can survive attacks and strike in many ways.
"we should do a better job competing with china"
— rob
"lol oh are you a china stan?"
this year so far, china has approved about 12 GW of new nuclear capacity vs about 11 GW of coal capacity
we've got to start taking this seriously. We have *a lot* of uranium(@rob_mcrobberson) July 31, 2025
The report looks at specific examples of how China uses nuclear threats differently depending on the U.S. ally it is targeting. For the Philippines, which mostly worries about low-level conflicts in the South China Sea, China might use indirect nuclear warnings. This could include discouraging the Philippines from allowing U.S. missile systems, like the Typhon launcher, on its soil. Those weapons could hit deep inside China. Government-backed media in China has already started suggesting that Philippine bases hosting U.S. forces could become targets.
Japan, which depends heavily on U.S. nuclear protection but has strong public opposition to nuclear weapons, faces a focused propaganda campaign from China. The goal is to make Japan doubt whether America’s security promises are reliable. China is using psychological pressure to stop Japan from building its own strike capabilities or helping the U.S. in a possible fight over Taiwan.
South Korea, on the other hand, is mostly worried about North Korea’s nuclear threat, not China’s growing arsenal. Seoul has been hesitant to fully support U.S. efforts to counter China, and it is unclear whether South Korea would let U.S. forces use its bases in a Taiwan crisis. The report says China is working hard to keep South Korea’s attention split, preventing it from joining a broader regional strategy against Chinese aggression.
