Aaron Rodgers has revealed the reason why he has been stalling on a decision about signing with a team (or potentially retiring). No, it’s not because he wants to take revenge on the NFL media for any perceived slights against him, although I wouldn’t be surprised if he has been enjoying the media coverage and frenzy over his prolonged decision. The actual reason appears to be significantly sadder.
Rodgers Reveals Personal Crisis Behind Delay
According to the New York Post, Rodgers revealed on “The Joe Rogan Podcast” that someone (or multiple someones) close to him has been struggling with cancer. According to Rodgers, he has been “in the weeds with these people who are close to me that have cancer.” He said, “I’m just going through a lot in my personal life that has to take precedence at this point.”
This declaration by Rodgers has helped ease some of the concerns surrounding the NFL and its media, particularly in Pittsburgh, that Rodgers was merely stringing them along and planned to retire eventually. This news provides at least a rationale and explanation for his lengthy decision process, but it still hasn’t clarified much about his plans.
Madden Offers A Data-Driven Prediction
While I hope Rodgers and his inner circle are okay and are receiving the best medical care possible, our job here is to figure out what Rodgers might do once they get through this tough situation.
The best predictive tool that I know of, that’s probably just as accurate as anything anyone else is predicting, is Madden data.
Looking at the overall numbers, we can see that Rodgers finished as the 20th-highest rated player in the game with a 77 overall rating. Let’s assume that falls to 75 solely due to natural regression, placing him behind 23 QBs in the ratings rankings.
With Cam Ward likely being rated higher than 75, that makes him better than just eight current projected starters for the 2025 season:
- Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence 74 OVR
- Jets: Justin Fields 73 OVR
- Falcons: Michael Penix Jr. 73 OVR
- Colts: Anthony Richardson 72 OVR
- Vikings: J.J. McCarthy 72 OVR
- Browns: Joe Flacco 71 OVR
- Saints: Spencer Rattler 68 OVR
- Steelers: Mason Rudolph 67 OVR
Obviously, Jacksonville pays Trevor too much to justify adding Aaron. He’s also not going back to the Jets. That bridge is already burned, and the Falcons, Colts, and Vikings are excited about their young potential franchise QBs and won’t rock the boat with Rodgers. The Browns already have too many cooks in the kitchen at QB, so they are out, and the Saints have come out strongly against the idea of signing Aaron Rodgers. Which brings it down, unsurprisingly, to the conventional wisdom of retirement or the Steelers.
Could The Steelers Actually Be A Fit?
If you look at the Steelers current weapons:
- RB1: Jaylen Warren 80 OVR
- RB2: Kaleb Johnson ~75 OVR
- WR1: D.K. Metcalf 88 OVR
- WR2: Calvin Austin III 75 OVR
- WR3: Roman Wilson 70 OVR
- TE1: Pat Friermuth 84 OVR
- TE2: Darnell Washington 74 OVR
- OL average: 77 OVR
- Total overall points: 623
- Average weapon: 77.9
Compared to the Jets weapons last year:
- RB1: Breece Hall 83 OVR
- RB2: Braelon Allen 72 OVR
- WR1: Davante Adams 91 OVR
- WR2: Garrett Wilson 86 OVR
- WR3: Allen Lazard 77 OVR
- TE1: Tyler Conklin 75 OVR
- TE2 Jeremy Ruckert 68 OVR
- OL average: 82.4 OVR
- Totals overall points: 634.4
- Average weapon: 79.3
Retirement Might Make The Most Sense
We see that the Jets were a significantly better Madden team than the Steelers, and they featured familiar players for Rodgers. However, they still played poorly, and Aaron looked miserable at times. If he chose to go to the Steelers, he would be plunged into a new system with unfamiliar players on an offense that is noticeably worse than what he had with the Jets last year.
Add to that the fact that he is dealing with personal issues regarding the health of loved ones, and you start thinking that retirement may be the best option for the future Hall-of-Famer.
