Despite the college football season being up in the air, a great gambler continues to study and evaluate. The AAC as a Group of 5 conference is even more up in the air, but we still need to examine the Vegas win totals and my expectations for each. I also highlight three prospects on each team that have the most intriguing NFL potential.
Cincinnati Bearcats: Vegas Win Total- 8.5
This team won 11 games last season and head coach, Luke Fickell has this team rolling and ready for another double digit win season. Fickell turned down Power-5 jobs and a big reason has to be that he believes this team can reach the next level after winning 11 games in back-to-back seasons. Nebraska, Memphis & UCF are not going to be fun games on the schedule, but they should be able to go 1-2 against that trio and still hit this over confidently. This already impressive defense returns ten starters and Fickell has taken the recruiting up a notch. Prediction: Over 8.5
Top Prospects:
James Wiggins, S, 6-0, 205 pounds, Sr.: Wiggins is the forgotten man as far as preseason draft hype goes, but the All-AAC selection checks a ton of boxes you look for in an early-round safety selection. His 2019 season was lost due to an injury, but he will remind scouts of his potential in 2020.
James Smith, P, 6-5, 232 pounds, Sr.: Smith had a disappointing 2019 season after his net punting average fell from 44.3 yards to 41 yards in 2019, but he is still one of the top punters in college football. The All-AAC selection will be looking to return to his Ray Guy Award finalist form.
Gerrid Doaks, RB, 6-0, 230 pounds, Sr.: It is crazy to think Doaks was actually slated to be the starter in 2018, but due to injuries and the emergence of Michael Warren II, Doaks was forced to take a backseat. Doaks is now 100% and will be a name to watch after gaining 526 yards and five touchdowns last season.
East Carolina Pirates: Vegas Win Total- 3.5
East Carolina won four games last season in Mike Houston’s first year as head coach and they do return their quarterback and have a dynamic young leading receiver, but this defense is not good. The Pirates’ defense is rough; specifically, their defensive line is one of the worst in the AAC. The line at 3.5 is too close to comfort, but I do think this team takes a step back: Prediction: Under 3.5
Top Prospects:
D’Ante Smith, OT, 6-4, 289 pounds, Sr.: Smith is an All-AAC selection and is the diamond in the rough on the otherwise underwhelming ECU offensive line. Smith is a star and has the potential to play at the next level.
C.J. Johnson, WR, 6-2, 229 pounds, So.: A Freshman All-American and All-AAC selection, Johnson has a few years of eligibility left and will look to build upon his team-leading 908 yards and 54 receptions from last season.
Jake Verity, K, 6-1, 197 pounds, Sr.: No one is more locked into their starting gig than the All-AAC selection in Verity. He nailed 24 of his 29 field goal attempts and all of his 33 PAT attempts last season. Verity also handles kickoff duties.
Houston Cougars: Vegas Win Total- 5.5
I expect Houston to improve on their four wins from last season as they dealt with a ton of injuries during a year that snapped their six-year bowl streak. Dana Holgorsen had a bad first season as the head coach of the Cougars, but he is confident this team can win sooner rather than later and has a track record to prove it. Holgorsen may not be the best coach, but winning seven games on a consistent basis is doable and this roster can accomplish that first. Prediction: Over 5.5
Top Prospects:
Marquez Stevenson, WR, 6-0, 190 pounds, Sr.: Stevenson is arguably the fastest player in all of college football and has the production to match. The All-AAC selection has accumulated 1,926 receiving yards the last two seasons combined.
Isaiah Chambers, DE, 6-6, 288 pounds, Sr.: Chambers is no longer with the Houston program, but is a legit NFL prospect that warrants serious attention. Chambers is well-traveled as he originally enrolled at TCU before transferring to Houston and now finally to McNeese State. Chambers led Houston with five sacks and was fourth in tackles for loss with six last season and was leading the team in sacks with 4.5 in 2018 before a season-ending knee injury occurred.
Payton Turner, DE, 6-6, 288 pounds, Sr.: Turner is an athletic stud with great measurables on the edge for Houston and can supply a consistent pass rush. If he can make it home more often (4 sacks in 2019), he will rise up the boards.
Memphis Tigers: Vegas Win Total- 10
This 10-win number is tight and I don’t have a lot of confidence either way, but this team did notch 12 wins last season and looks primed to do it again in 2020. The reigning AAC champions will be looking to repeat and the odds look good considering all of the talent returning on an explosive offense. The Tigers will be looking to go to their fourth straight AAC championship and second straight New Year’s Six Bowl. The defense is not the strongest in the conference, but I wouldn’t bet against this offense. Prediction: Over 10
Top Prospects:
T.J. Carter, CB, 5-11, 189 pounds, Sr.: An All-AAC selection and PFF darling, Carter will be looking to prove he is 100% healthy after missing the conference championship and Cotton Bowl due to injury last season. He is an absolute stud and although he doesn’t have a ton of interceptions, this is mostly due to teams outright avoiding him. PFF has Carter as a top-five draft-eligible corner and rightfully so. He simply never allows the big play.
Kenneth Gainwell. RB, 5-11, 191 pounds, So.: An All-American-level performer, Gainwell is just an overall athlete who looks impressive running the ball. The evidence is his 1,459 rushing yards, which led the nation’s freshman and catching the ball out of the backfield. He is a dark horse Doak Walker Award candidate and should be in the early round discussion for the 2022 NFL Draft.
Damonte Coxie, WR, 6-3, 197 pounds, Sr.: Coxie is an All-AAC selection, and like Gainwell is a pivotal anchor on this explosive offense. After accounting for 1,276 receiving yards on 76 receptions and scoring nine receiving touchdowns last season, Coxie will be looking for more in 2020.
Navy Midshipmen: Vegas Win Total- 7
I am not running to the bank with a ticket on this line either, especially considering Navy is coming off of an 11-win season, but they are much more likely to return to 3-10 mark from the 2018 season than repeat last season’s efforts. Finding a quarterback to run this unique offense is critical and head coach Ken Niumatalolo was given no favors by the COVID-19 situation. The defense is also not ideal on the line or in the backfield. Prediction: Under 7
Top Prospects:
Diego Fagot, ILB, 6-3, 240 pounds, Jr.: Few players exploded on the scene like Fagot last season and he finished the year as the team leader in tackles with 100 and second in tackles for loss with 12 and sacks with 5.5. The All-AAC selection will be looking to build off the momentum he built as a sophomore.
Jamale Carothers, RB, 5-9, 203 pounds, Jr.: Playing the crucial fullback spot for the Midshipmen, the All-AAC selection is dynamic with the ball in his hands and like Fagot broke out somewhat unexpectedly. Navy is one of the few FBS teams with a junior varsity roster and this is where Carothers started his 2019 season, before being promoted to starting on Saturdays and finishing the season second on the team with 734 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns.
Billy Honaker, OT, 6-3, 282 pounds, Sr.: One of the few bright spots on a weak looking offensive line, Honaker is one of only two returning starters on the line and will look to build upon his All-AAC performance from 2019.
SMU Mustangs: Vegas Win Total- 7
Again this is another close line, but SMU won ten games last season and return a ton of firepower. The Mustangs were phenomenal last season and even shined when the lights were brightest, which is a real testament to how quickly Sonny Dykes has moved the needle in Dallas. With a national top-10 offense returning seven key starters and a defense that was top five in both sacks and recovered fumbles returning six starters, I lean on the over. This team has momentum and a favorable schedule, with their toughest games being at home. Prediction- Over 7
Top Prospects:
Reggie Roberson Jr., WR, 6-0, 200 pounds, Sr.: The West Virginia transfer made a wise move as he immediately became a star for the Mustangs earning All-AAC honors and averaging 18.7 yards per reception before a foot injury forced him to miss the final five games. With James Proche departing, Roberson will be tasked with a much larger role and this should help his stock immensely if healthy. He may be viewed as the best receiver in the nation by seasons end.
Shane Buechele, QB, 6-1, 207 pounds, Sr.: Buechele has a huge cannon and used it to elevate this program as a grad transfer from Texas. SMU won 10 games for the first time since 1984 and Buechele was the biggest reason why. His name is etched all over the school’s single-season record books as he torched defenses for 3,929 passing yards and 34 passing touchdowns. The All-AAC selection was efficient as well completing 62.7% of his passes and again this is a guy that is not afraid to go deep.
Kylen Granson, TE, 6-3, 235 pounds, Sr.: After the injury to Roberson, Granson really thrived and earned his All-AAC stripes. He has the makings of an effective move tight end in the NFL and will be looking to build off of his extremely impressive 2019 numbers of 721 receiving yards, 43 receptions and nine touchdowns.
Temple Owls- Vegas Win Total- 6
This is another perfect line, but my lean goes against the grain. Despite winning eight games the last two seasons, I don’t think this team has the talent to repeat those efforts and believe their play will match their upsetting Military Bowl effort, where they suffered a blowout loss to North Carolina. This schedule is much harder as they lose cupcake Connecticut and gain Navy. They also play heavy hitters like Miami, Memphis, Tulane and UCF all on the road. Prediction- Under 6
Top Prospects:
Vincent Picozzi, G, 6-4, 305 pounds, Sr.: An experience starter, Picozzi earned first-team All-AAC honors last season despite only playing in nine games due to an injury. If he can prove to be 100%, Picozzi can move up some boards.
Ifeanyi Maijeh, DT, 6-2, 285 pounds, Jr.: The focal point of a historically strong Temple defense, Maijeh dominated from the nose position last season earning first-team All-AAC honors after recording 10.5 tackles for loss.
Daniel Archibong, DT, 6-6, 300 pounds, Sr.: Archibong, like Maijeh, mans the interior of the Owls’ defense. Few do a better job of anchoring down in the middle of the trenches as evidenced by his second team All-AAC billing last season.
Tulane Green Wave- Vegas Win Total- 6
Another tight total as Tulane has won seven games in each of the last two seasons and they reload enough key pieces to hit that mark again. The Green Wave has won bowl games in consecutive seasons for the first time in school history and this seems like a solid time to ride the momentum head coach Willie Fritz has built. A big reason for Tulane’s struggles last season was penalties; they ranked 123rd in the category, but this is typically a fixable issue and should result in more wins. Prediction- Over 6
Top Prospects:
Patrick Johnson, DE, 6-3, 250 pounds, Sr.: Johnson plays outside linebacker for the Green Wave and is a dynamic pass rusher as evidenced by his 10.5 sacks in 2018. The All-AAC performer suffered a labrum tear last season though and this resulted in a dip in production as he only recorded four sacks. Looking to come back at 100% big things are expected.
Corey Dauphine, RB, 6-0, 195 pounds, Sr.: Tulane was thrilled Dauphine was granted a sixth year of eligibility as the speedster was looking to build off his 575 rushing yards and strong eight yards per carry average from last season, but he recently tore his Achilles and will likely miss the 2020 season. He still warrants consideration though due to his exciting play.
Corey Dublin, G, 6-4, 300 pounds, Sr.: An extremely experienced interior lineman with four years of starting experience, Dublin has the size scouts are looking for and the dominant tape as an All-AAC performer to warrant a look.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane- Vegas Win Total- 4.5
Finally, a number that makes me jump out of my seat. This goes against the grain, but Tulsa does not have the talent to repeat their four-win effort from last season. Head coach, Phillip Montgomery is on the hot seat and rightfully so considering Tulsa has only won nine games since 2017. They have a bit of momentum after finishing 2-1 to end the season and the schedule is more favorable, but this team look bad. Prediction- Under 4.5
Top Prospects:
Shamari Brooks, RB, 5-9, 190 pounds, Sr.: Brooks managed to earn 1,046 yards behind an awful offensive line last season and earned All-AAC. He will look to build upon his career total of 23 touchdowns in 2020 behind another rough offensive line.
Zaven Collins, OLB, 6-4, 260 pounds, Jr.: The defensive star and returning leading tackler with 97 from last season, Collins has been a stud since his Freshman All-American campaign in 2018 and has thrived despite playing behind a terrible defensive line. He has serious early-round potential and is clearly intelligent as he is a pre-med major.
Keylon Stokes, WR, 6-0, 194 pounds, Sr.: Stokes is a pure athlete worth manufacturing touches for as proven by his 1,500 all-purpose yards last season. He led Tulsa with 62 receptions for 1,040 yards and also reached pay-dirt with six receiving touchdowns. He is also a powerhouse kick and punt returner.
UCF Knights- Vegas Win Total- 10.5
Another tight total, but UCF is legit and looks even better this season after recording ten wins last season. Josh Heupel has done a wonderful job as head coach and has kept the Knights close in every contest as evidenced by the fact that their three losses last season were by a combined seven points. This is a team that has the drive and talent to be AAC champs and go to a New Year’s Six Bowl. Prediction- Over 10.5
Top Prospects
Richie Grant, S, 6-0, 194 pounds, Sr.: Grant is a star and is already being mocked in the first round of many online Drafts. He is a top-flight prospect and coming back for his redshirt senior season should only help his stock.
Cole Schneider, G, 6-4, 312 pounds, Jr.: Only a junior, Schneider is arguably one of the best guards in the country and already has a ton of experience. He checks many of the boxes you look for in an early round interior line selection.
Aaron Robinson, CB, 6-1, 193 pounds, Sr.: An All-AAC selection, Robinson actually shined brighter than Grant last season and although Robinson plays the nickel role on the slot, he is phenomenal and warrants a deep look.
USF Bulls- Vegas Win Total- 4.5
I am not running to the bookie with this pick, but USF is not good and it is hard to see them matching their four-win effort from last season. The offense is horrendous. They managed only 33 offensive touchdowns last season on 178 drives, which is only 18.5% and puts them at 117th in the nation. New head coach Jeff Scott has an uphill battle especially with five of their road games against bowl-eligible teams from last season. Prediction- Under 4.5
Top Prospects:
KJ Sails, CB, 5-11, 175 pounds, Sr.: Sails led the Bulls with three interceptions last season and is a shutdown All-AAC performer with some early-round draft hype. He checks many desirable boxes including maturity as he has a two-year-old son. The North Carolina transfer has been able to thrive at USF.
Brad Cecil, C, 6-4, 307 pounds, Jr.: The anchor of a disappointing offensive line in more ways than one, the All-AAC performer is the leader and one of the rare points of consistency with 19 high-level career starts under his belt.
Trent Schneider, P, 6-0, 200 pounds, Sr.: The Bulls are in good hands with All-AAC standout, Schneider as he finished last season with a 46-yard average. He also had 25 punts of 50 yards or more and had 15 downed inside the 20-yard line. It is not very often a punter plays a key role in an upset, but when USF defeated BYU last season, Schneider was key with five punts for an average of 52 yards, which set the school record.
