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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
World
Nick Evershed and Josh Nicholas

The Crunch: a widening ideological divide and the decline of birds

The Crunch Newsletter main image. Pictured: A tennis racket and ball,The Australian magpie, Swift Parrot, Superb fairywren and Donald Trump against a grid background with charts and numbers.
This week in The Crunch: data analysis of everything from a tennis match to bird population decline in the US to Trump’s finances. Composite: Guardian Design

Welcome to the third edition of The Crunch for 2024!

In this week’s newsletter, we have the widening ideological divide between young men and women, a beautiful, but depressing, feature about the decline of birds in North America, even more maps and charts about tax cuts in Australia, a cool animation of points over time in a tennis match, and patterns that the words for numbers make in different languages when plotted alphabetically.

But first, on the Guardian …

We have just published a groundbreaking investigation into the deaths of people experiencing homelessness in Australia. These deaths are not counted by the government as they are in other countries, so my colleague Chris Knaus has spent a year trawling through coronial inquest documents and data, and spoken with experts and family members to produce the first national count of homeless deaths.

The series exposes how the system is failing people experiencing homelessness and their families. The data shows a stark divide in the age at death for homeless people compared with the general population:

The image is a bar graph titled “People experiencing homelessness die much younger than the average”. The graph compares the percentage of deaths in each age group for people experiencing homelessness and identified in coronial reports between 2010 and 2020 with deaths in the same age group for all of Australia in 2019. There are two sets of bars, one in red representing people experiencing homelessness and one in blue representing the general population. The age groups are listed on the left, ranging from less than 21 to over 70. The percentages are on the bottom, extending from 0 to 60. Key observations noted in the graph include that the average age at death for homeless people was 44.5, while for the general population it was 77.

You read the first part of the series here, and see the full data-heavy breakdown of the report here.

Five charts from the week

***

1. An ideological divide is emerging between young men and women in many countries around the world

A chart showing the growing ideological divide between young men and women across South Korea, the US, Germany, and the UK. The graphs display the political ideology of 18-29-year-olds, calculated as the percentage identifying as liberal minus the percentage identifying as conservative, plotted over time. Each graph shows two lines: one for women (pink) and one for men (blue), with shaded areas indicating variability. In all countries, the trend shows a rising liberal inclination among women and a more conservative trend, or less liberal trend, among men. Data points are scattered along the lines, suggesting individual survey responses. The x-axes represent years, spanning from the 1990s to 2020, and the y-axes show the ideological scale from -20 (more conservative) to +40 (more liberal). Sources include Daniel Cox, Survey Center on American Life, Gallup Poll Social Series, and the British Election Study.

This chart from John Burn-Murdoch at the Financial Times went big on the Website Formerly Known as Twitter last week. The chart is from John’s latest column ($), in which survey data from four different countries suggests young women in these countries are becoming more liberal (or progressive) while men are becoming more conservative.

A similar pattern can be seen in some other countries, such as China, and here Shaun Ratcliff from Accent Research and the University of Sydney, suggests that there is a similar ideological divide in Australia.

This article by Dr Alice Evans is well worth a read as well, as it digs more into some possible reasons for the split between the genders.

***

2. Bird populations are declining in the US. This map shows where

A map of the United States depicting changes in the abundance of birds from 2012 to 2022. The map uses a dot density pattern to represent abundance, with areas of higher concentration shown in darker shades and areas of lesser concentration in lighter shades. Overlaying this are colour-code changes in abundance, with blue dots indicating increases and red dots indicating decreases. The changes range from -30% to +30%, as indicated by the legend.

It is no secret that at Guardian Australia we love birds, so it’s not surprising that this beautifully designed feature by Harry Stevens at the Washington Post ($) was one of our favourite pieces in the past two weeks.

The decline in North America’s bird population has been huge – a staggering 30% of the population in the past half a century, according to Harry’s article. His excellent graphics show which species are declining and where, and also which species have increased their numbers.

You can also check out the main map on Observable (and the code used to make it) if you don’t have access to the Washington Post.

***

3. In tennis, the finish line is dynamic

I (Nick) do not understand tennis scoring and I refuse to learn. I did, however, find this animated chart by Andrew Marshall very interesting. Apparently tennis matches can go on for a long time, and you can represent the points in this way, which is frankly wild.

***

4. One in five Australian’s don’t have “basic” electricity protections

A map of Australia with coloured dots representing communities and showing how many of the 5 basic electricity protections they have

Access to reliable electricity is fundamental to modern life, but new research shows that one in five Australians live in a community that doesn’t have “basic” electricity protections. This includes rules against disconnecting customers on life support or during periods of extreme hot or cold temperatures – something that climate change is making more vital.

Most Australians in eastern states are covered by a national framework. But electricity regulations are state-based, and remote and Indigenous communities are disproportionately unprotected.

***

5. Trump’s legal issues are eating in to his campaign finances

A bar graph titled ‘Money troubles’ shows Donald Trump’s presidential campaign and affiliated committees’ finances in millions of dollars. The left side displays ‘Estimated fundraising and expenses’ for 2021, 2022, and 2023, with bars segmented into campaign contributions (light grey), legal expenses (dark grey), and other expenses (red). The bars show varying proportions of each category, with legal and other expenses often exceeding contributions, suggesting a deficit. The right side shows ‘Cash on hand’ for 2020 through 2023 with solid red bars. There is a significant drop in funds from 2020 to 2021, with a more gradual decrease through to 2023. The x-axis labels the years, and the y-axis labels the amount in millions, ranging from -40 to 120 million for fundraising and expenses, and from 0 to 120 million for cash on hand. The sources cited are the Federal Election Commission and The Economist.

This simple but effective chart from The Economist ($) shows how Donald Trump’s legal expenses have become the largest proportion of his expenses overall. While Trump’s campaign is still raising millions of dollars, 50 cents of every dollar donated went towards his legal defence, according to The Economist’s analysis of FEC filings.

Spotlight on … stage-three tax cuts in Australia

  • This geographic analysis of the stage-three tax cuts shows nearly 90% of areas in Australia will be better off under the new plan, and that working-class communities in Coalition-held remote and regional electorates stand to gain the most. You can see the full interactive map based on analysis from Ben Phillips at ANU here

  • Our colleague Greg Jericho has some great charts illustrating what this looks like over the income distribution

  • The ABC’s Digital Story Innovation team produced a similar geographic analysis using ATO data, along with some excellent charts which break down the new tax cut benefits by occupation, and age groups

  • They have also made a neat tax calculator which shows you how the revised stage-three tax cuts will impact you, based on your income

Off the Charts

A set of four scatter plots titled ‘THE NUMBERS 0–99 SORTED ALPHABETICALLY IN...’ presents the alphabetical order of numbers in English, French, Spanish, and German. Each plot represents a different language, with English in red, French in blue, Spanish in green, and German in purple. The x-axis labels the numbers 0-99 grouped by tens, and the y-axis represents an ‘alphabetical score’ that presumably corresponds to the alphabetical position of the number when spelled out. In the English graph, the points form a distinctive step-like pattern, indicating a non-linear alphabetical order. The French graph has a note indicating it refers specifically to French as spoken in France, with Belgian and Swiss French using a decimal system for 60–99. The Spanish graph shows clusters of points with gaps, reflecting the language’s structure. The German graph displays a dense distribution of points, suggesting a different alphabetical arrangement of number names. Each plot has a unique pattern

I (Nick) have never thought about what it would look like if you wrote out all the words for numbers in each language, sorted the list in alphabetical order, and then plotted the results on a chart. But now I realise that I was a fool, and this is clearly something I should have thought about. Luckily for you, dear reader, the Reddit user Udzu has made this lovely chart which shows exactly this!

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• This article was amended on 8 February 2024 to replace a reference in the introduction to a chart on Singapore’s public housing to a chart on the decline of birds.

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