Electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) are set to transform our lives. Batteries are improving, bolstering their performance and range, while charging points are becoming an increasingly common part of the roadside. Many of us are excited by the potential for low or emission-free transport, plus the prospect of connectivity and, in time, driverless vehicles. Certainly, electric vehicles (EVs) could theoretically transform transportation. But the actual numbers of EVs and PHEVs on our roads is still very low, so when exactly will this revolution begin?
Of all of the cars purchased in 2019, just 7.3% used “alternative fuels”. But figures show their numbers have been rising year on year for the past decade.
Electric cars, in one form or another, have been around since the 19th century, but these were very much supplanted by their diesel and petrol counterparts in the century that followed. However, since the turn of the 21st century, major automakers have been ramping up their efforts. For instance, BMW launched concept versions of its all-electric BMW i3 series and a plug-in hybrid, called BMW i8, at the 2009 International Motor Show; it now has a range of 10 PHEVs, from the 2 Series Active Tourer to the X5. EVs and PHEVs are now a major part of carmakers’ ranges. By 2023, BMW plans to have 25 electrified vehicles in production, with 12 of those being fully electric.
Governments, too, are planning and investing in an electric future for transportation. The UK government will ban the sale of petrol and diesel in 2035 and other European countries are acting similarly.
Tipping point
Michael Woodward, UK automotive lead at Deloitte, says EVs will rise in popularity during the 2020s. “The inclusion of hybrids in the UK’s incoming ban on new petrol and diesel car sales from 2035 could slow demand in the longer term but, for now, hybrids continue to be seen as a stepping stone to going fully electric.”
Furthermore, Woodward predicts the market is now ready for EVs. “While the uptake of EVs is unlikely to overtake demand for traditional petrol or diesel cars any time soon, a tipping point is likely to be reached in 2021.”
Charge points
There are well-known practical issues with EVs that have led the public to be nervous about purchasing one. The biggest issue is probably the fear of getting a flat battery and being unable to charge up, a problem known in the industry as “range anxiety”. An immediate solution for anyone nervous about range anxiety would be to look to a PHEV, which switches to conventional fuels on longer journeys but remains fully electric for shorter trips. For instance, all of BMW’s plug-in hybrid vehicles have an electric range that can cover the average commute, which is 26 miles a day.
Alexander Lewis-Jones, senior analyst at energy consultancy Delta-EE, believes a lot has been done in terms of improving the UK’s charging infrastructure to also combat this issue. He says: “There’s a lot of talk about range anxiety being a barrier to uptake, but our research shows this shouldn’t be the case, as the UK has more than 31,450 charge points accessible to the public. While this is a strong number, we can’t get complacent and should be urging local authorities to install charge points in their area.”
Delta-EE’s research suggests the UK government has invested in the region of £300-400m in public charging infrastructure. There has also been the development of “rapid charging” points for travellers in a hurry. A new industry is emerging, designed to keep EV users moving. However, in the UK, the majority of EV drivers charge up at home.
Efficiency
Richard Seale, lead automotive designer at Seymourpowell says that, from an energy efficiency point of view, EVs come out on top. “EVs are more efficient at turning energy into motion,” says Seale. “Electric motors turn between 85-90% of stored energy into movement, while ICEs (internal combustion engines) are down to around 15-25%.”
For Seale, the arguments for EVs are clear. However, the public has tended to associate EVs with lower performance and charging issues, and these factors, combined with a higher price, make them a hard purchase to justify.
“Actually buying one hasn’t always been an easy choice to make,” says Seale. “Even though consumer attitudes are changing, ultra-low emission vehicles still only represent a tiny percentage of cars on the road in the UK. That aside, if you look at the accelerating growth rate: 1,732% between 2010 and 2018, it is clear that we are seeing a fundamental change in the automotive industry. I firmly believe that, eventually, EVs will be by far in the majority on British roads.”
Analysts and industry expect the 2020s to see both transport and energy infrastructures become far more reliant on batteries. But some are sceptical that EVs are great for the environment. Yet Seale says EVs and PHEVs do mark progress.
“One key point that is often argued is: ‘The energy has to come from somewhere.’ The issue with this argument is that, while it is still true that the majority of energy in the UK grid comes from fossil fuels, using an ICE solution as the end user will never improve this. However, opting for an EV means you make up part of a developing infrastructure of clean energy, an infrastructure that is only getting better.”
The future is electric
Another big headline grabber is the emergence of autonomous, driverless vehicles. The energy in a battery can power both the car’s motion and all of the other smart computing devices that come with it. There is a merging of the industries of automotive, telecoms and IT.
Cars are going to become increasingly intelligent. For instance BMW’s 330e model can already make predictions using route data to create the most efficient drive possible. Smart vehicles can make data-based decisions that humans would be unable to perform when at the wheel, such as choosing better routes, slowing down or sleeping the engine to reduce energy consumption, without unduly affecting journey times.
Moreover, new business models for driverless vehicles are being devised including car clubs, shared ownership and rental models, as well as taxi services, and are attracting investors and entrepreneurs. The smart money looks to be on smart vehicles, and those vehicles are going to be electric.
Technology drives the world, and is the beating heart of every BMW. Discover how BMW is pioneering plug-in hybrid vehicles at bmw.co.uk
