I don’t think JD Vance is a moron. Evil, yes. Deranged, maybe. Dangerous, definitely. But, despite him apparently committing his life to making the world a living nightmare, he’s certainly smarter than most of the MAGA goons clogging up the orifices of the Trump government.
This makes it all the more frustrating that he’s happy to say stuff he knows full well doesn’t make sense, confident that the seals of the Republican base will clap and grunt like someone’s dangling a herring in front of them.
Vance is currently attempting to justify Trump’s National Guard takeover of Washington, DC. The White House’s case is that the city is a lawless hellhole that needs the firm hand of the military to ensure peace. The somewhat confused DC residents say they’re happy with their police force, with a stunning 79% of them opposing the takeover and 61% saying they now feel less safe after Trump’s troops rolled into town.
But don’t worry, Vance is on the case. He appeared on Fox News to defend the situation, telling Laura Ingraham that this power grab isn’t a power grab, and how can it be a bad thing if DC murders have declined by 35% in… nine days?
INGRAHAM: People say you all are gonna roll through other cities — 'Oh, martial law is gonna be declared.' And to that you say?
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) August 20, 2025
JD VANCE: How is it a power grab when we've already declined murders by 35% in nine days? pic.twitter.com/uWA3SDEr0t
You don’t have to be a statistics major to spot the problem here. Nine days is way too short to capture any meaningful trend in crime figures and there’s no way of telling whether this is reduction is chance rather than a trend. Anyway, the current weekly average for DC homicides is 3 per week, so a 35 percent reduction of that over nine days is extra meaningless.
On top of all that, DC homicides have been in decline since 2023. In that year, there was a spike (274 homicides, 5.27 per week), followed by a 32% drop in 2024 (187 homicides, 3.60 per week), and so far a further decline this year (3.06 per week through mid-August).
Calculated stupidity
Vance, just like the entire Republican Party for the last fifty years or so, can rest easy knowing the majority of their supporters simply don’t understand statistics in any way and will believe whatever they’re told. Those who are smart enough to know this is nonsense will just pretend it’s meaningful so as not to rock the boat.
Or, to put it more succinctly:
Unfortunately that’s their target demographic, and they’ll eat it up like the lemmings they are.
— Jesse White (@jessewhite46) August 21, 2025
Couldn’t have said it better myself.
