MIAMI _ The Florida Keys could feel stormy conditions from a strengthening Tropical Storm Laura on Monday, but mainland Florida appears to be clear of the storm's track, forecasters said Saturday, as the "disorganized" Laura is forecast to track away from the state after it passes by Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba.
Tropical Storm watches may be required for the Florida Keys later Saturday, forecasters said. Monroe County has declared a State of Local Emergency and ordered the evacuations of all live-aboard vessels, mobile homes, recreational vehicles, travel trailers and campers in anticipation of the storm.
Tropical Storm Laura is bringing heavy rainfall to Puerto Rico on Saturday, and forecasters expect it to menace Hispaniola on Saturday and parts of Cuba on Sunday on its path away from Florida. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands could see between 3 and eight inches of rain from Laura. The Dominican Republic and Haiti could see four to 8 inches of rain, with a foot possible across southern areas, according to the hurricane center.
But while the Florida mainland is out of the cone, the Keys could feel storm conditions on Monday.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Marco, a second storm forecasters are watching in the Caribbean, picked up some steam early Saturday, but is not expected to impact Florida, according to the 2 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center.
Both storms, if they survive their journey through the Caribbean, could threaten the U.S. Gulf Coast next week. Marco could be heading for Texas while Laura could menace Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi.
Early Saturday, the Dominican Republic issued a tropical storm warning for the southern coast. And the Bahamas upgraded its watch to a warning for the southeastern chain of islands.
On Friday, Gov. Ron DeSantis sent a letter to President Donald Trump requesting that he declare a pre-landfall emergency for Florida in anticipation of Tropical Storm Laura. He named 34 counties, including Miami-Dade, Monroe, Broward and Palm Beach.
TROPICAL STORM LAURA
Tropical Storm Laura formed in the Atlantic Friday morning, and at 2 p.m. Saturday, though characterized as "disorganized," it gained some strength as it moved across the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. Laura is expected to move across much of the Greater Antilles this weekend, bringing tropical storm conditions to the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas Saturday into Sunday.
Laura was about 60 miles southwest of Ponce, Puerto Rico, according to the 2 p.m. Saturday advisory from the hurricane center. It has increased from 40 mph maximum sustained winds to 50 mph with higher gusts and is still traveling west at 18 mph.
The forecast track for Laura remains farther south, which is now showing mainland Florida outside its path and only a portion of the Florida Keys in the cone. But the hurricane center said the "tropical storm watches may be needed for the Florida Keys later today" and the National Weather Service in Miami tweeted Saturday afternoon that "some impact is STILL POSSIBLE over mainland South Florida, especially if Laura tracks north of the current forecast."
This shift south has also put more of Cuba its path. The Cuban government has issued a tropical storm watch for the provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba and Granma.
"The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday," the 11 a.m. NHC advisory said. "However, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week."
South Florida may feel the effects of Laura as tropical storm-force winds extend 205 miles from the center, mainly to the north, according to the National Hurricane Center. There is a about a 5-10% probability that mainland Miami-Dade County experiences tropical-storm force winds, defined as sustained winds of up to 73 mph. The chances are closer to 30 or 40% in parts of the Florida Keys.
"At this time, there is still too much uncertainty to determine specific impacts this system may have on South Florida," the National Weather Service said Saturday morning in its hazardous weather outlook. But meteorologists are still putting rain chances at 80% in Miami-Dade for Monday.
Forecasters say the center of Laura will move near Puerto Rico Saturday morning, near or over Hispaniola in the afternoon and Saturday night and near or over eastern Cuba Sunday and Sunday night.
Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days.
Miami city officials advised residents to be prepared for any potential storm impacts over the weekend. While the latest forecast does not show Miami in Laura's path, the situation can easily change, said Mayor Francis Suarez.
"All preparation measures need to be wrapped up and buttoned up by Sunday evening," said Suarez during an afternoon press conference.
The mayor said city crews have inspected storm water pump stations, and all are operating, and the city has contracts prepared to distribute ice and water if it becomes necessary.
TROPICAL STORM MARCO
At 1 p.m. Saturday, Marco had 65 mph maximum sustained winds with higher gusts and is about 50 miles from the western tip of Cuba and about 90 miles east-northeast of Cancun, Mexico. The storm is headed north-northwest at 12 mph.
The latest track shows it approaching the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center will cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan Saturday night and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward Sunday and Monday.
A gradual turn toward the northwest and west-northwest is expected to begin Sunday afternoon and continue through Tuesday morning, the hurricane center said.
The storm "could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and early Monday," according to the hurricane center advisory.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.
WATCHES/WARNING FOR TROPICAL STORMS LAURA, MARCO
Tropical Storms Laura and Marco have caused a slew of hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings.
The Cuban government issued a tropical storm warning on Saturday for the province of Pinar del Rio. The Mexican government discontinued its hurricane watch and tropical storm warnings for the eastern Yucatan coast south of Cancun.
The storm is also forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain in eastern portions of Quintana Roo and the Yucatan, which may result in flash floods. Northeast Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands are also forecast one to two inches of rain.
Laura caused many warnings to be activated in the Caribbean.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti, the northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic, and the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for the central Bahamas.
The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.
Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, the southern Haitian Peninsula and eastern Cuba through Sunday.
It could also produce up to 8 inches of rain along eastern portions and the southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti, the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico.
The Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos and the southeast Bahamas are projected to see 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.
WHAT ABOUT THE OTHER WAVE IN THE ATLANTIC?
The third wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the Africa coast.
Forecasters had said "some slow development is possible during the next couple of days" as it moves across the eastern tropical Atlantic. But in the 2 p.m. Saturday advisory, they gave it a near zero% chance of organizing into a tropical cyclone in the next five days.
The next storm name on the list is Nana.
