As concerns over the Iran war recede, stock investors are confronting another threat: climate risk, which is prompting a reassessment of bets across sectors from agriculture to insurance.
A high probability of a “Super El Niño” heading into 2027 may drive up temperatures in some parts of the world, sending power demand surging, hurting crop yields and reigniting inflationary pressures. That could complicate the outlook for central banks, posing a risk to global equities trading near record highs.
“El Niño arrives at an especially sensitive moment,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. “The global economy is still adjusting to the inflationary consequences of the Iran conflict, while supply chains remain vulnerable following months of disruption.”
