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Newcastle Herald
Newcastle Herald
National

A state budget amid big global trends

NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet.

BY any measure, Australia has had a remarkable escape from the worst of the global coronavirus epidemic, with even the worst incidents in this country being relatively insignificant blips on the worldwide map.

Our isolation - once derided as Australia's "tyranny of distance" - has been our saviour.

As a one-nation continent, we have been able to keep our borders successfully shut, once the early cruise ship imbroglios were taken care of.

Although some sectors have been hard-hit - tourism, overseas students, gyms and entertainment venues spring to mind - the overall impact, from an economic perspective, has been far less than was originally, and reasonably, expected to be the case.

An improved outlook, nationally speaking, was at the heart of last month's federal budget.

The subsequent Victorian budget was less well-received, after the Andrews government decided to lift payroll tax levies and stamp duty in the name of "budget repair".

After a series of coronavirus lockdowns, Victorians are feeling the strain.

The latest Bondi outbreak poses a threat, but the outlook for NSW appears considerably brighter, as NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet will no doubt explain when he unveils his fifth budget in Sydney tomorrow.

Governments will always want to take the credit for good things, and deflect the blame for bad, but this is a time when big, global trends are challenging old certainties.

Many of our worries are beyond the grasp of Gladys Berejiklian, and, indeed, Scott Morrison.

Big and obvious influences on our lives are the worldwide policies of ultra-low interest rates (ushered in as an "emergency" response when the Global Financial Crisis hit in 2007, but now seemingly permanent) driving up house prices, the social and economic convulsions unleashed by the push to "decarbonise" by replacing fossil fuels, and, of course, the coronavirus.

The NSW government has moved ahead of its federal Coalition counterpart on renewables policy, with Labor caught in a pincer movement between the needs of its blue-collar base and the demands of its progressive wing.

This conflict, alone, will focus attention on new opposition leader Chris Minns later in the week, with his budget reply speech the first big test of a new leader needing to rally the troops, while managing his side's apparently limited expectations.

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