No quarterback has even thrown 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in the same season in the history of professional football. George Blanda threw 42 picks in 14 games for the 1962 Houston Oilers of the American Football League, and he managed just 27 touchdowns. Vinny Testaverde holds the modern and NFL records with 35 picks in 1988 for the Buccaneers, and he threw just 13 touchdown passes. Of the other quarterbacks in the 30-plus interception club, John Hadl of the 1968 San Diego Chargers (AFL again; this was a thing in this league) had 32 picks to 27 touchdowns. Lynn Dickey of the 1983 Green Bay Packers had 32 touchdown passes and 29 interceptions, leaving us all feeling a bit cheated.
Following his four interceptions in Tampa Bay’s Saturday 23-20 loss to the Texans, Jameis Winston is now very much on pace to become the first guy to do it. Winston already had the 30 touchdown passes, adding one more on Saturday, and he’s now up to 28 picks on the season. Just two more against the Falcons in the season finale, and Winston will make a very odd brand of pro football history.
Against Houston, Winston threw his first pass of the game to Texans cornerback Bradley Roby, who returned it for a 27-yard touchdown.
Those who have observed Winston all season would find this easy to believe. Winston has thrown interceptions on the Bucs’ opening drives six times this season, and for the fifth time in Tampa Bay’s last seven games. Unbelievably, the Buccaneers were 4-0 in the previous four games, and had Winston not thrown three more on this day, they might have easily been 5-0. Because Winston, as flawed as he is when warming up into a game, also has an rare ability to redeem himself. In Week 14 and 15 wins over the Colts and Lions, Winston became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for more than 450 yards in two straight games, and his touchdown-to-interception ratio was 8-4.
The Buccaneers have a complicated decision to make with Winston, who is on schedule to be a free agent at the start of the 2020 league year. Should the team place the franchise tag on him and hope another year with Bruce Arians as his head coach will tame his rogue tendencies? Should they give him a long-term contract with major quarterback-level dollars and hope everything works out?
This is not a decision I would want to have to make. It’s easy enough to say that you’d jettison Winston, who will be 26 years old when the new league year starts. But if he goes somewhere else, figures it out, and becomes one of the pre-eminent quarterbacks of his era, you will, in the words of Ricky Ricardo, have a lot of ‘splainin’ to do.
That said, let’s go through the six opening-drive picks Winston has thrown this season and see if there are any clues to his current maddening inconsistency, and perhaps his eventual football redemption.
Week 5 vs. Saints
This trend started against the Saints in Week 5, though this interception with 2:01 elapsed in the first quarter didn’t count due to a delay of game penalty. Here, the Bucs are trying to run a three-level flood concept to the left, but the execution is left wanting. The Saints are showing a Cover-0 presnap look with no deep safety, but both their safeties drop into deep coverage pre-snap. Winston doesn’t adapt to the look, and when he tries to hit Scotty Miller on the deep third of the flood, safety Marcus Williams runs the route much better than Miller does.
Week 6 vs. Panthers
Winston got it out of the way right away the next week against the Panthers, throwing a pick to corneback James Bradberry on the very first play of the game. The clock had barely started rolling when Winston threw this interception to cornerback James Bradberry. The Panthers have Tre Boston as a deep safety — so deep, he’s out of the coach’s tape. So, this is Cover-3, and Winston tries to hit receiver Mike Evans on a quick comeback. This is a very risky throw, as linebacker Luke Kuechly is flaring out to Evans’ area, and Bradberry is close enough to jump the route. But hey — if you’re Jameis Winston, you believe enough in your arm strength to get that thing in there. The result? Carolina’s ball.
Week 10 vs. Cardinals
We had to wait a few weeks for Winston’s next opening pick, which came against Arizona. This looks like 2-Man coverage (a two-safety deep look with man coverage underneath), and receiver Chris Godwin runs an out route, while Breshad Perriman runs an over route to the same side. It matters not, because Winston thinks he can hit Godwin when Murphy is all over Winston’s target. Perhaps Winston thought there was going to be zone coverage, and there would be a breakdown with the crosser concept. But when Murphy motioned inside to cover Godwin, that should have been an indicator of man coverage.
Week 12 vs. Falcons
Winston threw four picks against the Saints in Week 11, but mercifully managed to avoid throwing one on the opening drive. Instead, the Bucs went three-and-out and saved the drama for the next week against Atlanta. You can kind of see what Winston is thinking here — cornerback Desmond Trufant is playing bail coverage, and safety Ricardo Allen busts his coverage to the flat. Evans takes his route inside, and if Trufant is expecting Evans to turn upfield this is an easy completion. But Trufant does a great job of reading the route, crossing in front of Evans, and taking the ball away.
Week 14 vs. Colts
Winston threw two interceptions to Indianapolis linebacker Darius Leonard in Week 14. The second, Leonard returned 80 yards for a touchdown in the second quarter. This one came with just 34 seconds gone in the game. Here, Evans runs a slant from the left side, Leonard drops to Evans’ area, and it’s an easy interception. Stop us if you’ve heard this one before, but it looks like Winston did not adjust to a change in coverage he did not expect pre-snap.
Week 16 vs. Texans
As for the sixth of these opening picks — this is just a bad look. Houston had been pressing Tampa Bay’s receivers on the first two plays, Winston probably thought he had an easy completion to Justin Watson with cornerback Bradley Roby playing off, but he also telegraphs his intention Samuel Morse-style to throw the ball to Justin Watson, and all Roby has to do is to sit on the throw, wait until it’s too late for Watson to do anything, and take the gift home.
If there’s one thing above all I’d worry about when it comes to Jameis Winston’s NFL future, it’s the extent to which he’s unable to adapt, both pre-snap and post-snap, to coverage looks he doesn’t expect. He is the football equivalent of the pitcher who needs to get that three-run home run out of the way, and while he’s got the best fastball in the game, he’s never learned to mix in the off-speed stuff when it can benefit him.
In the NFL, the off-speed stuff is the ability to adjust and adapt to defensive disguises and alterations. Especially in today’s NFL, where coverages and personnel packages are more complex than ever, it’s a must if you ever want to be great. Back in the day, you could get away with throwing 42 picks like George Blanda did in 1962 — the Oilers came within an overtime field goal of winning the AFL championship that season. But in today’s game, all this kind of play gets you is a lot of loud outs.
But we also have to accept that, at a certain point in time, quarterbacks are what they are. Cutler was never able to shake the rogue gene that had him making all the throws — including all the bad ones. And if Winston is set to follow that career path, he will eventually run out of oxygen in a league that generally comes around to the idea that efficiency is more important than explosiveness at the most important position.
There will always be members of the Big Arm Club in the NFL, though, and that’s why Jameis Winston will have a long future in the league. Where that is, and what that means? I have absolutely no idea.
