The Houston Texans are not having a good season. That’s alright. They were never supposed to.
2022 was always meant to be another step forward in an arduous rebuild brought on by former head coach and general manager Bill O’Brien’s woeful roster management. The most successful coach in franchise history traded away superstars, gave players entirely too much leverage in free agency and ultimately mismanaged his salary cap so badly it’s become a multi-year process to fix.
But fear not, Houston fans. You’re not out of the running yet. In fact, with just 13 easy steps, the Texans can not only make the 2022 NFL Playoffs, but also lay claim to their first AFC South title since 2019. It’s just *this* simple:
First thing first: The Texans win out
A loss in Week 13 makes the Texans the first team eliminated from playoff contention in 2022 — seven teams in the AFC already have seven wins, and another L would cap Houston’s maximum at six. A tie could technically keep them in contention, but as much as I’d like to see a 6-9-2 franchise win its division (via tiebreaker over the 7-10 Tennessee Titans) the odds of it happening are so minuscule I’m not even considering it in this flight of fancy where I have a one-win team as future AFC South champs.
Here’s who they have to beat:
- Week 13 vs. the Cleveland Browns, who will be starting former Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson for the first time following an 11-game suspension following more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL described as “predatory behavior” stemming from his time in Houston.
- Week 14 vs. the Dallas Cowboys.
- Week 15 vs. the Kansas City Chiefs.
- Week 16 vs. the Tennessee Titans.
- Week 17 vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars.
- Week 18 vs. the Indianapolis Colts.
I see no problems here.
Week 13: The streak begins
Here’s the nice thing about still being eligible for a division title; the Texans don’t have to worry about what the New York Jets or Los Angeles Chargers or New England Patriots do in their battle for a Wild Card spot unless they’re playing an AFC South opponent. And even then the Jaguars and Colts can win a few games since they’ve only got four victories apiece through 12 weeks.
This is great, because the only thing that cannot happen is the Titans winning another game. Elsewhere in the division, Houston just needs the Jaguars and Colts to lose one more game that *isn’t* against the Texans in the final six weeks.
- The Titans lose to the Philadelphia Eagles.
- The Jaguars lose to the Detroit Lions (or the Dallas Cowboys in Week 15, or the Jets in Week 16, any of these work).
- The Colts lose to the Cowboys (or the Minnesota Vikings in Week 15, or the Chargers in Week 16, or the New York Giants in Week 17).
Week 14: Claiming superiority over the state of Texas
The Texans beat the Cowboys, in Dallas, to claim a state championship and possibly send Dak Prescott spiraling into existential malaise. Elsewhere:
- The Jaguars beat the Titans.
Week 15: Something Bill O'Brien failed to do his final two seasons
Houston’s three-game win streak is its first since 2018. That historic feat, coupled with Tennessee’s three-game losing streak, pushes the Texans’ postseason odds from less than 0.1 percent all the way to … two percent, per FiveThirtyEight. Progress!
What’s Tennessee up to?
- The Titans lose to the Chargers.
Week 16: Tennessee, circling the drain, begins to recognize the Texans' greatness
Beating the Titans on the road (see above) ups those playoff odds to eight percent. Houston is ROLLING, kiiiiiiid. This is also a week where Colts or Jags losses would help, but aren’t necessary to the postseason push.
Week 17: Wait, this one could actually happen
Beating the Jaguars here isn’t even a stretch. Houston is in the midst of a nine-game winning streak over Jacksonville and 15-2 against its division rival since 2014. Meanwhile, Prescott gets his groove back by extending Tennessee’s misery.
- The Titans lose to the Cowboys.
Week 18: Triumph (and a 7-9-1 AFC South champion
The Titans still control their own destiny in Week 18 and would need just a win over the Jaguars to clinch the South at 8-9. Instead:
- The Titans lose to the Jaguars.
YOUR final 2022 AFC South standings:
- Houston Texans: 7-9-1
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 7-10
- Tennessee Titans: 7-10
- Indianapolis Colts: 4-12-1 or 5-11-1 or even 7-9-1, since they’d be 0-1-1 against the Texans in 2022
Congratulations, Houston. You get to host a playoff game with your .441 winning percentage. And it wasn’t especially needlessly complicated to get you there.
