As Iran goes to the polls today to elect a new president, those who want democratic progress have a dilemma: do you boycott the election or vote for a reformer who would probably struggle to drive through change?
The (relatively) moderate conservative cleric Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, an ally of the unelected supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is widely tipped to prevail in the election.
But Iranian bloggers are today writing that this may not be the certainty everyone had thought and that there is a late surge from the main reform candidate, former education minister Mostafa Moin, 54.
Hossein Derakhshan, a Toronto-based Iranian who is visiting Tehran, writes on his Editor: Myself blog that he cannot believe "that mainstream media in Iran are ignoring all signs of a reformist candidate's rise and still pushing for Rafsanjani as the saviour".
Mr Moin was originally one of the 1,000 or so candidates blocked from standing by the mullahs but was later permitted to stand, along with just seven others. The smart money is on Mr Rafsanjani, 70, who was president between 1989 and 1997, failing to win the 50% of the vote he needs to win outright and being forced to go into a run-off next week, probably with Mr Moin.
There is some great analysis on this on the Iran Scan blog from Nasrin Alavi who says there are "strong signs especially in blogosphere" that Mr Moin may win, (although, admittedly, it is debatable how good blogs are as an indicator).
Iran has a young electorate and Mr Rafsanjani has been among those attempting to court the vital youth vote with western-style campaigning (he even gave BBC Newsnight an interview in which he said the US and Britain may not be the "big devil" and "little devil", which is how he described them in the past). Foreign reporters have been rather surprised to see young women campaigning in knee-length tunics and young people using the election as camouflage for some partying.
But Derakhshan questions on Iran Scan just how real young people's apparent support for Mr Rafsanjani is:
Many of these young boys and girls on the streets are not going to vote Rafsanjani. He is just an excuse for them to gather and have fun. The same way they gather during religious Shia festivals ... they look like they are genuinely interested in what they do, but if you start talking to them, you'd see they are probably checking out hot girls and boys behind you.
Derakhshan argues that polls can be unreliable when it comes to Mr Rafsanjani and estimates a third of survey respondents lie about who they are going to vote for:
Rafsanjani's name is enough to scare many ordinary Iranians. They think they'd be in trouble if their answers were not what they guessed the interviewee wanted. They are amazing actors in this game.
Perhaps that is why Mr Behi, on his Adventures of Mr Behi blog, writes that it is hard to determine who people queuing up to vote are going to back.
Mr Behi also reports that the internet was down in Iran for a period on election day and claims he was told it was due to an order from the telecommunciations ministry. "Surprising! Outrageous," he says.
Nasrin Alavi notes that we should not be so surprised about the relaxation of social restrictions that have attended the election.
Leading hardliners have in recent years openly affirmed that Iran should pursue a Chinese model of governance. This would mean less social restrictions, liberalising the economy and making peace with Europe and the United States - while maintaining political repression. After all Mao suits did painlessly fade away for Red China's oligarchy.
Meanwhile, there is an interesting American slant on the election, beyond US president George Bush's statement that "Iran is ruled by men who suppress liberty at home and spread terror across the world".
The Associated Press reports that Iranian exiles in the US (there are around 400,000 of them, many concentrated in southern California) have been campaigning against the elections. There are 36 US cities where polls have been opened for Iranian exiles to vote. Hossein Hedjazi, a host at KIRN AM 670 radio station, said he took an informal poll of listeners and all planned to boycott the election.
Finally, in a piece praised by some Iranian bloggers, Christopher Hitchens writes in Vanity Fair that while the "sham election won't oust the ruling mullahs ... even Khomeini's grandson is looking to the US for hope".
