A ceasefire to end military operations in Gaza and allow for the return of hostages came into effect on Friday after Israel and Hamas agreed to the first phase of US president Donald Trump’s plan to end the war in Gaza.
Israel’s military withdrew to an agreed-upon line, making way for thousands of displaced Palestinians to make the long journey north towards abandoned homes in Gaza City, which had been under attack just days ago in one of Israel’s biggest offensives of the war.
The ceasefire’s implementation, taking effect from midday local time (10am UK time), gives Hamas 72 hours to release all hostages, alive and dead. These crucial agreements are the start of a potential road to peace. But the fragile accord is not yet set in stone.
Hamas now has until 12pm local time on Monday to release the hostages. Israel will have to release some 1,700 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons. It is still not clear when exactly the release will take place, or where.
The ceasefire should also pave the way for unrestricted aid to flow into the Gaza Strip. But it was also unclear whether this was happening as of Friday. The ceasefire itself brought further confusion, as Israeli continued to strike Gaza through the early morning.
Broader problems remain. It is not clear who exactly will run Gaza if and when the fighting stops. Israel will not leave holes in its security, and Hamas will have to agree to its own effective dissolution in Gaza.
Returning the hostages
Israel has now completed the initial stage of its withdrawal to agreed lines within Gaza, giving Hamas the space to prepare to move the hostages for their release.
This does not guarantee peace will endure. The IDF said on Friday that troops in the Southern Command were still deployed and would “continue to remove any immediate threat”.
Hamas has 72 hours to release the living hostages. Sources until now had given different estimates on when this would take effect. On Thursday, Trump said all remaining hostages would be released on Monday or Tuesday.
Israel says there are 48 hostages still in Gaza, and 20 are believed to still be alive. Sources told CNN that the Israeli government is aware that Hamas may not know the location of, or is unable to retrieve, the remains of some of the 28 deceased hostages still in Gaza.
One complication for Hamas is that freeing the hostages leaves them without leverage in negotiations. If Hamas frees its captives and lays down its weapons, it relies on good faith and the commitment of foreign parties to ensure the terms are upheld.
Dr Andreas Krieg, associate professor of defence studies at King’s College London, told The Independent: “Trust is thin after months of failed efforts and violence during talks. Continued strikes while delegations are in Egypt make it harder to trigger a day and hour for the ceasefire to start. Any lethal incident before Friday could prompt one side to pause, insist on new safeguards or walk back consent.
“Negotiators are still working through the order of steps on a first phase that ties a ceasefire to an initial Israeli pullback and a hostage-prisoner exchange. If either side questions who moves first, or if names on the exchange lists cannot be verified in time, implementation will slip.”
Support for the agreement
Israel's government ratified the ceasefire with Hamas in the early hours of Friday, clearing the way to suspend hostilities in Gaza.
A majority of Israelis now say that the time has come to end the war. But they disagree on whether the main goal of the war should be to bring home the hostages or to vanquish Hamas, according to a recent poll. Netanyahu faces similar pressure in the Knesset.
In theory, Trump’s plan should answer both concerns. It draws a roadmap for immediately returning the hostages still in Gaza, and by removing Hamas from power, it should win support from the right.
In practice, the politics remain fractured. While lawmakers on both sides of the Knesset voiced support, finance minister Bezalel Smotrich said his far-right Religious Zionist party would not back the plan, warning against releasing Palestinians held in Israeli prisons he described as “the next generation of terrorist leaders, who will do everything to continue spilling rivers of Jewish blood”.
In January, a vote did manage to overcome opposition from the far right to secure an armistice and the exchange of hostages and prisoners. Crucially, negotiations on moving to stage two did not occur until after stage one was planned to expire. Fighting resumed in March. A temporary truce in November 2023 also lasted just a week before collapsing.
Ousting Hamas does not guarantee watertight security, and those in Israel will still need tangible assurances that peace will not only be immediate but lasting.
Dr Krieg said: “The agreement is not yet over the line politically in Israel. It still requires security-cabinet and then full cabinet approval, and at least one senior coalition figure has already signalled opposition. A late revolt by hardliners or a demand to amend the text would push the timetable back.”
“External politics add risk,” he added. “The United States is pushing for quick progress, but Israeli coalition dynamics, as well as internal debates within Hamas, can still trump mediator timelines. Even with public endorsements from Western leaders, last-minute domestic pressures can slow a deal that looks close on paper.”
What comes after Hamas?
The original plan describes a transitional government – “technocratic and apolitical” – managing the overall running of Gaza, overseen by an international body called the “Board of Peace”.
Ultimately, the interim government could be replaced by the Palestinian Authority, subject to certain “reforms”. Questions remain around the future of a Palestinian state. More enduring questions around Palestinian sovereignty are also not spelled out.
Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, said that he hoped the ceasefire would be “a prelude to reaching a permanent political solution”, leading to the establishment of an independent state.
The form this takes will matter across the border. In 2012, 61 per cent of Israelis supported two states. Now, around one in five do.
Hamas has also suggested it would retain a role in negotiations over the long-term future of Gaza. This leaves space for future disagreement – though, again, Hamas will have little leverage after releasing the remaining hostages.
Details on the group’s disarmament are still lacking. In the past, Hamas has said it would only disarm once a Palestinian state had been secured. Over the weekend, Netanyahu said Hamas would be disarmed and Gaza demilitarised “either the easy way or the hard way”.
Netanyahu said on Friday that Israeli forces would remain in Gaza to pressure Hamas until the Palestinian militant group disarms.
“The deal marks a significant milestone, yet it falls short of ending the conflict,” Dr Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said. “Sustaining a ceasefire will demand constant vigilance, confidence-building and the continued engagement of the US, UK and their allies. The ceasefire may have been won, but the hard work of building the peace is far from done.
“This will require both sides to make difficult – and in Hamas’s case, existential – compromises.”
Mark Wallace, former US ambassador to the UN, told The Independent that the agreement had the potential to be “transformational”. But “the challenges ahead lie in the greatest reconstruction effort certainly since Kuwait, if not the Second World War”.
“And, of course, what does the governance look like that is sustainable and peaceful?” he said.
Fragile optimism
The people of Israel and Gaza have a long memory of conflict, and there are few alive today who remember a period of enduring peace.
Trump’s plan to end the war is not the first. Foreign onlookers have submitted numerous drafts in recent months, hoping to learn from and overcome the failures of past truces.
Dr Ozcelik told The Independent: “There is much the deal does not address – an ambiguity likely designed to preserve Israel’s operational flexibility.
“In the first stage, success will depend on the return of all Israeli hostages and the release of agreed Palestinian prisoners. Over the longer term, the process is set to grow more fraught, with milestones such as the demilitarisation of Hamas posing a major test, which Israel regards as pivotal to the pace and sequencing of its phased withdrawal.
“Any breach, or claims of one, could swiftly unravel the ceasefire, providing grounds for a renewed cycle of violence.”
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