The conspiracy theories arrived almost immediately after gunfire erupted at Washington's White House Correspondents' Association dinner in April. Now, a new poll suggests those suspicions have travelled far beyond the internet's political fringes.
Roughly one in four Americans believe the alleged assassination attempt targeting President Donald Trump during the 25 April gala was staged, according to new findings from NewsGuard and YouGov. The figures expose something uglier than partisan disagreement. They point to a public increasingly unable, or unwilling, to agree on what is real.
Was the shooting staged?
The NewsGuard/YouGov survey, released on 11 May, found that 24% of respondents believed the shooting at Washington DC's Washington Hilton was fake. Forty-five per cent said the attack was legitimate, while 32% remained uncertain.
For years, misinformation researchers warned that constant exposure to conspiracy-driven content would erode trust in institutions. A third of those surveyed either rejected the official account or could not confidently accept it, despite federal charges being filed and an ongoing criminal prosecution.
The political split inside the polling was especially striking. Around one in three Democrats surveyed believed the incident had been staged, compared with roughly one in eight Republicans. NewsGuard editor Sofia Rubinson described the findings as revealing a deeper collapse in confidence toward both government and media institutions.
'I think the results are very striking,' Rubinson told USA Today. 'I think it's very telling that people on either side of the political spectrum are distrustful of both this administration and the media.'
The Criminal Case Continues As Doubts Spread
The polling landed on the same day that alleged suspect Cole Tomas Allen pleaded not guilty to multiple federal charges during an arraignment hearing in Washington.
Allen faces accusations including attempting to assassinate the president and assaulting a federal officer with a deadly weapon. Defence lawyers are reportedly preparing requests to disqualify two senior Justice Department officials from involvement in the case because both attended the dinner and could theoretically be considered potential targets.
The White House showed little patience for theories suggesting the attack had been orchestrated. In a statement to USA Today, spokesman Davis Ingle said, 'Anyone who thinks President Trump staged his own assassination attempts is a complete moron.'
Even so, official denials have done little to slow speculation online. That is partly because conspiracy culture no longer operates at the political margins. It increasingly feeds off institutional distrust itself. The more aggressively authorities dismiss falsehoods, the more some audiences interpret those denials as proof of concealment.
Butler Still Shapes Public Perception
The survey did not focus solely on the Washington incident. Respondents were also asked about the July 2024 assassination attempt at a campaign rally in Butler, where gunman Thomas Matthew Crooks fired multiple shots towards the stage, grazing Trump's right ear and killing one attendee.
Federal investigators concluded Crooks acted alone before being shot dead by Secret Service agents.
Yet even one of the most heavily documented political attacks in modern American history has failed to escape conspiracy theories. The poll found that 24% of respondents believed the Butler shooting was staged. Among Democrats surveyed, that number rose sharply to 42%. Only 7% of Republicans said they doubted the shooting was real.
The aftermath of Butler triggered extensive federal scrutiny into security failures and led to disciplinary action involving Secret Service personnel. Publicly, the attack produced rare bipartisan solidarity, with both then Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Joe Biden expressing support for Trump.
Still, for a sizeable portion of the public, even bloodshed captured live on camera remains negotiable.
Younger Americans Showed Greater Scepticism
One of the more revealing aspects of the polling involved age.
Respondents aged between 18 and 29 were consistently more likely to believe the assassination attempts had been staged. Thirty-two per cent of younger adults believed the April Washington attack was fake, compared with just 15% of respondents aged 65 and older.
The generational divide cannot easily be dismissed. Younger Americans consume vastly more information through fragmented online ecosystems shaped by influencers, algorithmic feeds and political content creators rather than traditional reporting outlets. In that environment, speculation spreads with the same visual authority as verified news.
The survey also examined reactions to the September 2024 incident at Trump's golf club in West Palm Beach, where Secret Service agents intercepted an armed suspect concealed near the course. Sixteen per cent of respondents believed that incident had also been staged.
Overall, 21% of Democrats surveyed believed all three assassination attempts involving Trump were fake. Among Republicans, only 3% held that view.
