Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared last week’s earthquake the deadliest catastrophe since the country’s inception a century ago. With elections on the horizon and anger at the government rising, FRANCE 24 spoke to political analyst Taha Ouda Oglo about the calamity’s possible implications for Turkish politics and the country’s longtime ruler.
Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power on the heels of the 1999 quake that killed more than 17,000 people and displaced countless more. The new government pledged change, promising that Turkey would be ready for the next quake. However, this was not the case.
Last week’s disaster exposed a collapse of Ankara’s response capabilities to a natural event of this magnitude. It also left in shambles Erdogan’s rhetoric following the 1999 quake, as promises to make the country quake-proof were not kept. With tens of thousands dead and millions more wounded, homeless or lacking basic facilities, coupled with a possible loss of 1% of the country’s GDP in a time of economic crisis, the calamity has proven to be the worst disaster to face Turkey in its modern history.
With general elections due in May and Erdogan's own future on the line, FRANCE 24 spoke to Turkish political analyst Taha Ouda Oglo about the political repercussions of Turkey's devastating earthquake.
FRANCE 24: The region stricken by the quake has traditionally favoured Erdogan's party at the polls. Is there a specific reason why?
There is a reason why people in this region vote for the AKP. On top of a large population of ethnic Turks, the region is also home to many Kurds who tend to have more conservative views than Kurds elsewhere. This has helped sustain support for the party even as tensions have risen between the government and the Kurdish community.
Erdogan and other government officials have made numerous trips to the area ahead of the elections. Lots of pro-AKP rallies were held there before the earthquake as the region has historically been a large reservoir of votes for the ruling party. That being said, the situation has changed dramatically since the earthquake as anger and despair grip the region. At the moment, supporting the AKP is the least of these people’s concerns.
FRANCE 24: How could the earthquake affect Erdogan's image and that of his party, both in stricken areas and the broader country?
Erdogan and his government benefited from a broadly positive image before the quake as several efforts were directed to improve the economy. This made Erdogan confident enough to seek an early general election in May. The AKP was hoping to capitalise on economic progress to ensure its re-election. However, after this unforeseeable calamity, all bets are off.
The people in quake-stricken areas are now resentful. They feel that money was used to revamp Istanbul’s infrastructure and make it quake-resistant but that nothing was allocated to the regions where the disaster actually hit.
Moreover, there is an admission of guilt by the government, which acknowledged failings in its response to the disaster. But there is more to it. The government did not hold people accountable over buildings with glaring code violations. At the moment, the authorities are arresting many contractors responsible for building deficient structures, but this isn’t enough.
Across Turkey, people are asking what happened to money that was earmarked to upgrading the country's infrastructure. They are asking why the authorities failed to enforce modern construction codes and turned a blind eye to code violations. (...) The fact that Turkey is now relying on international help, including from countries Ankara doesn't get along with, has only increased the people's anger and the country's sense of helplessness.
FRANCE 24: What impact could this have on the May elections, assuming they take place?
This is not just an earthquake; it's a political quake as well. The opposition will definitely use this as ammunition against the government. On the other hand, the authorities are now in a race against time to do what good they can ahead of the elections to ensure their political survival.
There is talk of postponing the elections until June – or even later if the government cannot get out of this situation. We have no idea, it is too soon to tell. What is certain is that the government is in a very tight spot not just because of the earthquake and the ensuing human tragedy, but also because of its electability. We will have a clearer picture within the coming weeks, when the full scope of this catastrophe becomes apparent. But at the moment, the people are angry and sad, and no one wants to think about the political implications.
